I read Coach Fletcher’s pick of the Saints as the most overrated team and felt a need to write about my expectations of this team. (Full disclosure – I’m a homer, albeit a realistic homer.) But with all due respect, I have to disagree with what was written. Besides a couple of minor factual errors (the Saints traded Sproles away before last season started, Keenan Lewis has been on the team for three season now), I’ve never understood how simply reciting stats from a past season is a predictive measure for what’s going to happen in a future season.
I’m not trying to be disrespectful. I know it’s tough for a pro capper to intimately know what’s going on with every pro team (not to mention college), but I think this is an example when it’s better to be a local (like myself) where you can focus on one team and read about and listen to what is going on in training camp on a daily basis. Here is how I see the Saints this season:
Offensive Line:
Center – the Saints were horrible (and I mean horrible) at center last season. The trade for Max Unger is a huge upgrade for this position. Here is a quote from a local writer: “Unger isn't really a surprise, he was one of the NFL's best in Seattle, but it is nice to see Unger living up to his billing. He's been a rock in one on one drills and looks like a veteran leader who can solidify the Saints interior offensive line. In other words, it looks like that Saints got the player they hoped they'd get.”
Guard – former All-Pro Jahri Evans played with an injured wrist most of last season which limited his effectiveness. He had offseason surgery and is reportedly 100%, so I look for his play to be better this season. Ben Grubbs was average at best last year and shipped to KC in the offseason. Tim Lelito will take his place. He is solid, but not spectacular.
Tackle – RT Zack Strief has been very dependable throughout his career and here’s a quote from a local writer on LT Terron Armstead: “With every practice that passes, it becomes more and more apparent that the light has gone ON for third year left tackle Terron Armstead. Armstead has a chance to be one of the NFL's best. Few tackles are as athletically gifted as Armstead, who plays with light, quick feet reminiscent of Willie Roaf. Armstead has been a rock in pass rush drills and coaches and teammates have raved about his stepped up quality of play since camp began.” The backup tackle position was a huge weakness last season and directly cost the Saints at least two wins in my opinion. The Saints drafted Andrus Peat in the first round to fill this backup void.
Running Back:
Fletcher writes that the Saints have to replace Sproles. Not sure if he is aware, but they did that with the signing of CJ Spiller from Buffalo. Mark Ingram will carry the ball most of the time. He had his best (and healthiest) season last year.
Wide Receiver:
Brandin Cooks will have a breakout year. 6-5 Marcus Colston is still solid. The Saints expect big things from 2nd year 6-6 WR Brandon Coleman and 6-3 Seantavius Jones. This is what was recently written about Coleman: “Last summer, as an undrafted rookie, Brandon Coleman looked slow and out of place. Sean Payton said he wasn't fully healed from a knee injury he suffered at Rutgers. The Brandon Coleman playing for the Saints THIS summer looks like an entirely different player. He's a huge target at 6'6, and he's catching everything in sight in West Virginia. Coleman looks like he's not only earned a full time roster spot, but he looks like he's surpassed Nick Toon as the Saints best option behind Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston.” I personally think the taller WRs will lessen the loss of TE Jimmy Graham in passing situations.
Tight End:
Yes, Graham is gone. He’s a tremendous talent. But man, the Saints offense was painfully predictable with him in the lineup. And keep in mind, the Saints won their Super Bowl before Graham was drafted. Ben Watson & Josh Hill will see most of the action at TE. Hill isn’t well known, but I thought he played awfully well in the limited action that he did receive last year as both a receiver and blocker. Watson played respectfully as well. You can’t replace Graham’s stats, but I really feel the Saints will be more unpredictable on offense with many more big plays this season.
Quarterback:
While Brees isn’t a top-3 talent anymore, he’s still better than 85% of the QBs in the league.
Most of the defensive players (especially the front seven) aren’t well known, but they do have a lot of young talent who are poised to have a good year which is why I feel the Saints are tremendously underrated. The experts only know known commodities. Not the up and coming ones. Coach Fletcher recites the horrible defensive stats from last season, but the players responsible for those stats are no longer with the team. Those stats are not relevant to this team.
Defensive Line:
Talented 4th year DE Akiem Hicks is noticeably trimmed down this summer, and noticeably quicker. He's consistently beaten Jahri Evans in one on one pass rush drills. Hicks has the raw ability to be an NFL star, but to this point, he's only dominated sporadically. Five days into training camp, he looks like a guy who MIGHT be ready to do it regularly. DE Cam Jordan is still an excellent young lineman and rookie DL Bobby Richardson is also receiving raves from coaches. If 3rd year DT John Jenkins improves a little, the Saints will have a very underrated D line.
Linebackers:
The linebackers are the biggest question mark of the defense. 1st round pick ILB Stephone Anthony looks like the real deal though. I know it’s early and it’s a jump from college to the pros, but the coaches are impressed with him so far. Unknown (outside of NO) 2nd year OLB Kasim Edabali made the Saint roster last season as an undrafted rookie out of Boston College, and he appears to have taken a large step forward. Edebali is relentless, with a motor that doesn't stop. With the possible exception of Keenan Lewis, he's Saints most energetic defensive player so far. If someone from the group of Anthony Spencer, Hau’oli Kikaha, Parys Haralson, Ron Powell, David Hawthorne or Dannell Ellerbe can step up, this unit will surprise.
Cornerback:
This is the position I’m most excited about. The Saints probably had probably their worst defensive backfield in the history last season (which is saying a lot because they’ve had many horrible ones). They couldn’t cover ANYBODY. This season could be the best in Saints history. Keenan Lewis and Brandon Browner will be excellent in press coverage. And here is what has been written about little known Delvin Breaux: “In the Canadian Football League, pretty much all they do is pass, and in the CFL, Delvin Breaux was a lockdown cornerback, a CFL All-Star. So far in camp, Breaux's experience and ability HAS translated to the NFL. Breaux has drawn praise from Sean Payton, Rob Ryan, Dennis Allen, Keenan Lewis and Brandon Browner - who also kick started his career in the CFL. Breaux appears certain to make the Saints roster, and very likely - to be the team's third cornerback behind Lewis and Browner. The Saints also have 2nd round draft pick Stanley Jean-Baptist and a couple of rookies they like very much rounding out this position.
Safety:
Kenny Vaccaro had an excellent rookie year two years ago, but broke his ankle near the end of that season. This injury never fully healed and really hampered him last season. This season, though, he’s healthy and back to his old form as he’s been really disruptive in practice. Jarius Byrd was the big signing from last season, but was injured early and did not contribute anything meaningful. I thought he was healthy, but he’s been watching practice from the sidelines with an undisclosed injury. Sean Payton does not disclose severity of injuries in preseason so there is no way to tell if this is serious or just precautionary. But if Byrd is healthy for the season, the Saints will have a top 3 defensive backfield. Rafael Bush is a solid backup safety if Byrd is not healthy.
One area of the team that is often overlooked is the return game. The return game is an area the Sean Payton has stressed because the Saints got ZERO (and I mean ZERO) from the kickoff and punt return teams last year. Even decent returns were incredibly rare. It’s too early to tell what the changes for this unit are (although Spiller & Cooks are talked about as return guys), but any improvement in this area will give the offense shorter fields to work with and help to increase points scored.
There was a lot of roster turnover to improve the chemistry and it is much better than a year ago. And when you look at the Saints schedule, there is not a game that isn’t winnable. Injuries can impact wins of course, but I can’t see the Saints not winning at least 10 games this year and the divisional crown. Expect a more unpredictable offense with more big plays and an effective, yet simplified defense that will not cause as many mental breakdowns (and there were a ton of those last season).