Decided to make a thread where I will post my future plays for this NFL season with analysis.. I have always considered NFL Futures to be a huge strength of mine because I follow NFL avidly all year round and make that the only sport I fully focus and lock in on. Last year the regular season futures were very profitable, and added 13 units to a great season. Back to the grind for this season, enjoy!
WEEK 1 GAMES
3* Minnesota Vikings +3.5 -125
2* New York Jets -2.5 -130
2* Panthers/Jags under 42.5 -120
Those who know me know that most games I am laying -110.. But the value on these numbers even at -125/-130 were to much to pass up on.. would not be surprised one bit to see the Vikings close around +1 and the Jets to close around -4.5
2* Seahawks/Rams UNDER 42.5 -110
Two bad OLines.. Two teams that want to run the ball.. Two stout defenses.. Divisional game.. Week 1.. What's not to like
4* Minnesota Vikings OVER 7 wins -140
This very likely could be my biggest future of the season. Nothing has stood out like the 5* Colts to win the AFC North last season, but this play is looking to be my strongest of the season. I am a Vikings fan, so I know this team very well. But I do not play bias' when it comes to money. Anybody looking to profit long term in sports betting knows that bias' will kill your bankroll. I do, however, pick my spots with a team that I know so well. And I love this over play for Minnesota. As always, any play you make is about VALUE. For a team that won 7 games last season, without its BEST player on offense, arguably there best pass catcher in Rudolph, and without borderline pro bowl guard Brandon Fusco and Run Blocking RT Phil Loadholt, led by a rookie QB, I think this number is way to low. I would even say that I would power rank the number around 8, and I think vegas missed badly on this total by placing it equal to a team like the Bears, and below teams like the Rams, Jets, and 49ers.
When you evaluate the offense, the biggest gain for the Vikings is the return of Adrian Peterson. Think what you want of him off the field, but a 100% motivated Adrian Peterson is a DEADLY type of running back towards opposing defenses. This guy is arguably a top 10 running back of all time when he's at the top of his game, and he's had an entire season off to avoid the wear and tear on his body. Just as important as the ability of Peterson is the THREAT of Peterson. Peterson opens everything up for a promising second year QB that had A LOT less to work with the previous year. With the addition of Mike Wallace, the Vikings finally may have a QB/WR Combo that takes the defense out of the box to stop Peterson. And if they do stay in the box, the Vikings have very formidable receiving threats in Wallace, Rudolph, and Charles Johnson. None of these guys are superstars, but all are solid players, with two of them having made pro bowls before. when facing the 1 on 1 coverage they should expect and put into positions to succeed by OC Norv Turner, I expect them to take advantage of whichever way the defense plays them. The big questions on the OLine is LT Matt Kalil and the RG Spot, but the rest of the line is very solid, led by center John Sullivan.
Defensively, you have to start with Mike Zimmer. This guy has gotten the most out of his talent everywhere he has been, and the Vikings defense, personnel wise, you could argue should be ranked anywhere from 9-12 amongst NFL Teams. The pass rush is good, not great, led by Everson Griffen and young stud OLB Anthony Barr. Shariff Floyd really stepped up at the 3 technique DT when Zimmer took over, and the rest of the front u is very formidable. The one thing the Vikings lacked for years was a secondary, but Xavier Rhodes was rated as one of the top cover corners in the NFL by PFF, and is still extremely young and fits Zimmers scheme very well. Add to this one of the top single high safety's in the league in Harrison Smith, and the potential of Trae Waynes, veteren stability of nickel corner Captain Munnerlyn, and you have a very solid group that played very well last season.
Guys.. if you ranked this roster amongst all teams in the NFL, and take away QB, you'll hear lots of arguments to place this team in the 5-10 range. Now, I know QB is the leagues most important position, but with the predicted leap in Bridgewater's game, this number is way to low. If Bridgewater has a year similar to last years modest 14 TD'S and 12 INT'S, I still wouldnt be shocked to see them win 8 games. But if you're asking me to play the percentages, Im saying its likely that Bridgewater at least takes a small step from last year, and the increase in talent, second year of Norv Turners offense, and the return of future hall of fame running back Adrian Peterson dont hurt. It's all about the number, and I see 7 as way to low of a number!
2* Cleveland Browns UNDER 6.5 wins -145
There is an outside chance this browns team could be the worst team in the league.. There few strengths are in there offensive line, which is certainly a good one when healthy, and there secondary that features Haden/Williams/Whitner and Gibson. But there is lots of turmoil surrounding this dysfunctional franchise.This team over achieved big time last season.. and that led to SEVEN wins. Kyle Shanahan did a great job making Brian Hoyer and less then ideal talented playmakers play above there skill level. With Shanahan gone now, the Browns start Josh McCown, and Bowe/Hartline/Hawkins as there top play making trio. The defense struggled mightily to stop the run last season, and lack any formidable outside pass rushers, which means Mike Pettines squad will be blitzing heavily to manufacture pressure. Lets not forget that this team plays in arguably the AFC'S toughest division, and seems to almost certainly be destined for a last place finish. This browns team over achieved big time getting to 7-9, and I think this year a realistic expectation for this team is a 5-11 season
2* New England Patriots OVER 10 wins -155
This play is one I like whether Brady's suspension sticks at four games, or does not. But this Patriots team has not won less then ten games since 2002, and any team led by Brady and BB is an auto play at this soft line of ten games. Secondary is a big time question park in New England but this front 7 has dominate potential with the athletic trio of Mayo Hightower and Collins at LB.. With Ninkovich and Chandler Jones in the trenches. This play may come across as " too easy" but play it and lay the juice if you can get the key number of ten
1* St. Louis Rams UNDER 8 wins -130
lets keep this short and sweet.. The Rams defensive line is the best in the conference, but they alsp trot out one of the leagues worse offensive lines.. One that only has currently one above average starter in left guard roger saffold. Nick Foles is no longer in chip Kelly's system, and also showed lots of erratic play when his line in philly deteriorated due to injury, and became simular to The rams offensive line. The lack of playmakers outside does not help foles case, but the big thing Is the lack of an Oline. This Rams team hasn't made the playoffs in a decade and while they do play hard nosed tough football every week, seeing them getting to nine wins is un likely.
1* Carolina panthers UNDER 8.5 wins
No this is not an overreaction to the Benjamin injury.. That will hurt, he is Cams only go to WR and helps reel in some of cams inaccurate passes with his huge body. But the big problem with this Panthers team is the offensive line. Teams with a lack of weapons and poor OLine tend to struggle even though they have a solid QB. The defense needs the front 7 to be dominate to succeed, but every dominate front 7 is better when playing with a lead, and Carolina's DLine depth has taken a hit in recent years.
1* Seattle Seahawks to win Super Bowl +500
Basically, putting a bet on my number one ranked team preseason to win the Super Bowl. If the playoffs come and I am not liking this team as much, I can bet against them, but I think the offense takes another step this season while the defense remains one of the leagues best.