I've stated in the forums that the match-ups dictate that we will see a lot of man-to-man coverage in this game on the outside especially as both teams lack deep threats and both teams have very, very good corner backs. Do think these match-ups outside have a carry-over effect in the sense that both teams will now be at a tactical advantage to shut down the other team's running game and intermediary-middle passing game because of this? It's kind of like a spill-over effect 'you do things so well in one area it creates an advantage in another area'! I think this among other things points us in the direction of playing the UNDER, but a couple of things pull us back in the direction of the OVER. First, both teams pass rush can disappear at times. Also, both teams will play peddle to the meddle eschewing long field goals and short field goals for shots at the endzone. That can't be a very good or a very bad thing when totals are considered. And most importantly, I read somewhere that NEG has been productive offensively against teams with TOP 10 DVOA defenses. The numbers leapt out at me so I had to look it up. Wow - the numbers are SHOUTING to play the OVER for the game and NEG team total. Look at the production against the top tier defenses in the league and SEATTLE is on deck.
DEFENSE DVOA
1. SEA
2. BUF 37, pointless to count WK 17 game
3. DET 34
4. DEN 43
5. SFR
6. HOU
7. ARZ
8. BAL 35
9. STL
10. PHI
11. NEG
12. CLV
13. IND 42, 45
14. CIN 43
Also, like you, I think that the under 44.5 -115 for the longest touchdown of the game immediately comes to mind and 'could' be one of the better props on the board. You make a good point when you mentioned that RBs and relief valves might play a bigger part in the passing game because of the match-ups.
Last thoughts: ESPN wrote an article listing the best players in the game from 1-106 and in the top 22 there 15 defensive players and 7 offensive players. Leaning back to the ...