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How often does a 7pt NFL favorite win within a range of 3-14pts? my guess would be probably around 40%? too high or low? anyone have data supporting or not supporting this, or just a strong opinion? I ask because with the lines the way they are this week for the championship games, their are some good value teasing opportunities. I appreciate all comments, thanks!
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Going back to 1989. 7 point favorites are 345-111-2 SU.
http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=line%3D-7&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
Of those 458 games, the 7 pt favs have won by 3-14 points 173 times.
http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=line%3D-7+and+3%3C%3Dmargin%3C%3D14&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
So about 37.7% of the time according to this database.
In the database I use there have been 448 games with 7.0 point favorites. In those 448 games the favorite has won between 3 and 14 points 173 times. Seven point favorites that are teased 6 points cover at a 74.8% rate and these teams that are teased 10 points cover at an 82.5% rate. If you are laying -110 on a six point teaser you will have to win 72.37% of your games to break even so a six point teaser bringing a team down through the key numbers of seven and three would be considered a positive EV bet.
and how often to they win by 8 or more??
TLF basically you're asking how often do 7 point favorites cover
ATS: 226-207-25 (1.97, 52.2%)
Right at the break even point if you are laying -110
Thanks guys, great info! I would love to know how you have access to this database? I would love to have a resource like that available to me even if I had to pay for it. Message me about where I can get this type of information from, thanks!
KJ here's the link to the database. It's free and on the right hand of the page you have a bunch of links leading to resources. Click on NFL under Query Links. It's a great tool. Take some time to learn the query language. I don't have a sophisticated understanding of the query language but enough to provide me with a ton of useful information. Good luck going forward.
http://b2b.sportsdatabase.com/
m.jsonline.com/.../288489951.html
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