Lost in the fury of the Dez no-catch was the fact that one of the announcers (I think it was Aikman) was saying "THIS IS A MISTAKE! You HAVE to take the 3 here!". None of the other announcers disagreed.
This happens EVERY week. Announcers are actually WORSE than head coaches....they NEVER want to take any risks, they think going for it 4th down is inherently wrong, like a Poker player who advises "NEVER go allin with a draw".
However, this was particularly egregious......Dallas was down 5, there were less than 4 minutes to play, it was 4th and short. The Fg would have been 50 yards, on a beat up field, in a wind chill of 7 degrees. A sharp 5th grader could likely deduce that the odds of making the 1st down was about the same as that of kicking the fg..........however, kick the fg and you are in bad shape. GB is up 2, you need an immediate stop, you need a drive, you need to make a fg, and you need (Maybe) to get a stop. Add it up, and make GB -210 no vig. Contrast this with where you are if you get the 1st down. NOW you are in the red zone, or next to it. And we stop talking about how how the vig should be, instead we start asking who should be favored (I'd still make GB -150).
The point is, you don't have to do the math. The basic strategy wins here.......ALWAYS go for it 4th and short, and you will usually be right if you have good field position. Obviously, if you are behind and in the 4Q it becomes a no brainer.
Add it all up, and I'm BEYOND shocked that in a million dollar industry, the TV execs don't train their announcers better.......their game theory is so weak you simply turn the volume off...........
On the handicapping front, I had a three star on tonight's championship game, but the line moved, and it pulled it down since I didn't want to sell my play at essentially -130 vig. We are off a monster NFL year, and have really hit our stride late, going 36-16 since 12/1. My Early Bird NFL SUNDAY is Up.
Further, I am starting to actively cap the NBA, and my annual package is UP.......
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY