Sorry for the late post, guys, but it's been a crazy day, and the time just got away from me.
Game – KC Chiefs at Oak, start approx. 5:25 Pacific
Weather in Oakland – cloudy and cool with possible light rain, temps in mid 50s with little wind
CCLs (current consensus lines) – KC Chiefs -7/-115 to -125 , or -7.5, game total 42.5, FH KC -4, FH total 21.5, team totals KC 24.5 or 25, Raiders 17 or 17.5
Plays
Pending play on KC from Monday nite FB teaser play posted Mondayl – “live” play on KC for 2.5 units at -1/2 point, with Chiefs part of the 2 team, 6.5 point progressive teaser involving Pitt (also teased to -1/2 point), as part of our full betting attack strategy for Monday nite’s game (see teaser below)
Pitt teased from -7 to -1/2 point with KC Chiefs (playing Thurs nite at Oak vs Raiders) also teased from -7 to -1/2 point, for 2.5 units (risk 3.0 units to win 2.5 units at -120 teaser odds)
If you did not play the above 6.5 point progressive teaser of Pitt with KC, then 2 units on KC Chiefs at -7, but pass at > 7, and don’t lay > -125 odds to get 7
Game Under 43 points/-120 odds for 1.5 units (risk 1.8 units to win 1.5 at -120 odds) if played Oak team total Under, or 2.5 units if not, but pass at < 43
Raiders team total Under for 1.5 units at 17.5, pass at 17 or lower, and put an extra unit on both game total Under 43 and the below KC to Under side/total teaser
6.5 point KC to Under Side/total teaser on tonite’s game
KC teased down to -1/2 point or less with the Under, teased up to 48.5>, for 3 or 4 units, depending if you were able to play Raiders team total Under at 17.5>
Supporting WUs for above picks
KC Chiefs -7 over Oak
It’s already a lost season for the 0-10 Raiders, while 7-3 Kansas City's season, of course, is heading in the opposite direction, as the team has not lost since its bye week and made an impressive “statement with” a 24-20 win over Seattle last weekend. We also like the way KC QB Alex Smith efficiently but cautiously manages the games and his high third down conversion rate And Smith's history against Oakland is virtually spotless, with a 4-0 record and a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those four games. And KC RB Jamaal Charles is coming off a terrific performance against Seattle - 159 rushing yards and two touchdowns - and was even better the last time he faced the Raiders, as he became the first player in NFL history to catch four TD passes and run for a score in a single game. One of the keys to Kansas City's success has been stopping the pass, as no team in the NFL has given up fewer yards through the air this season than the Chiefs' average mark of 201.8 yards.
Oakland is starting a rookie quarterback in Derek Carr, and while we see talented Derek Carr as the most likely Raiders QB of the future, he still needs some polishing of his “rough edges,” and we don’t expect him to have much success against the KC defense, which has allowed just 17.2 points per game TY, including 18.8 on the road, while the Raiders are scoring a league worst 15.2 ppg, including 18.0 at home. But the bigger issue for the Oakland offense at the moment is an anemic Raiders’ rushing game that ranks last in the NFL at 63 yards per game. Latavius Murray, a sixth-round pick in 2013, gave the Raiders' running game a spark last week with 43 yards on four carries and could see more playing time Thursday, particularly with #1 RB Darren McFadden running 28 times for 55 yards over his last three games.
We know that team trends don’t last forever, and should not be over-emphasized or over-played, BUT until they turn around, it makes sense to ride the best of those as long as possible. So it goes with Kansas City, now on a 9-game ATS win streak as it prepares to visit AFC West rival Oakland tonight at the Oakland Coliseum, where the Chiefs have also covered 9 of their last 11 visits, and where the host Raiders are a wallet-draining 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 reg season games (playoff games not included/LOL), including a similarly sucky 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS TY. Also note that Kansas City is a line smashing 11-1-1 ATs as a regular-season visitor since HC Andy Reid arrived last season, including (i) 4-0-1 ATS so far TY and (ii) 6-0 L2Y as road faves, one of them a 25 point blowout of Raiders in Oak.
Some are saying "trap game" here for the Chiefs, but we aren't buying it. The Chiefs cannot afford to lose games like tonite's, and Reid and his coaching staff, who surely have made their players fully aware of that, will not allow that to happen.
So based on the above support, we’’ll take the KC Chiefs here for 2 units at -7. But don’t wait around if you have this game at 7, as that is the best price you are going to see for the Chiefs tonite. We also suggest teasing KC down to -1/2 point or less with the Under, teased up to 48.5>.
Game Under 43
KC is 3-7 Under TY, with its defense having allowed just 17.2 points per game and its offense having averaged 24 ppg, And on the road, KC is 1-4 Under TY, with the KC defense allowing 18.8 ppg, and the offense averaging 21.5. The Raiders are scoring a league worst 15.2 ppg, including 18.0 at home, but are 3-1 Over at home TY in their 4 true home games, with an average of 49.5 ppg, due to their shaky defense, which gives up an average of 27 ppg overall, including 31.5 in their four true home games. And Raiders are not the most consistent of teams vs the total, as shown by the last two games, where Raiders set a season low for points in last week's 13-6 loss at San Diego, one week after setting a season high for points allowed in a 41-7 setback versus Denver. In any event, combining and averaging those home/road totals ATS results and #s for both teams gives the Under a small 5-4 edge, but projects 45 total points being scored (26.5 by KC, and 18.4 by the Raiders). However, with other factors favoring the Under, such as the last ten games between these two having stayed Under, and the Chiefs trending Under (on a 1-5 Under roll) in their last 6 games, we like the Under enough at 43 to play it, buying up to 43 at -120 odds if your game total is 42.5, as it is at some books. And we also suggest playing Raiders team total Under 17.5 if that’s their team total at your book, but passing on Raiders Under at 17 or less, and instead putting an extra unit on the game Under and in a 6.5 point KC to Under side/total teaser (teasing KC down to -1/2 point with the Under, teased up to 48.5>).
Raiders team total Under 17.5>
The KC defense has allowed just 17.2 points per game TY, including 18.8 on the road, with their road opponent scoring > 17 points in 3 of their 5 road games, but just 15 and 13 points in their two roadies at non-playoff teams, Miami and Buffalo, while the Raiders are scoring a league worst 15.2 ppg, including 18.0 ppg in their 4 true home games, in which they have stayed Under 17 points in 3 of the 4. So play Raiders Under their team total if it’s 17.5>.