BOL to you byeweek!

1* oak +7.5

Analysis:

2* Oakland/KC 1st half under 21.5

My algorithm has this total at 39.5, hence the play here.  I have been focusing on 1st half unders for a few reasons...the game plays true to form in the 1st half and less garbage time (especially in high line games) where teams play prevent D.  Also, if the teams do score on special teams/defensive TD's but otherwise the game plays like an under it gives me an opportunity to play the 2nd half under.  KC's defense is average (18th v run and 14th v pass) and KC's strength is their run game, but Oak is actually solid vs the run (10th in efficiency).  Oakland has only scored over 17 points once in the last 5 weeks (24 vs Seattle).  KC is 2nd in redzone TD's allowed (42%) and Oakland is 8th (50%).  So, even if these teams do move the ball effectively, we are looking at a high FG rate.

1* Oakland +7.5 over KC

See stats above.  I think both teams will struggle to score, which is always good for a big home dog.  Winless teams are hard to bet, but winless dogs (after week 5) have been proven to be profitable in the NFL, particularly if >7 points (>60% ATS).  Oakland has ben competitive in most of their games, only getting blown out by Denver in the last 6 weeks.  The Raiders have played the hardest strength of schedule thus far and they have had tremendously bad fumble luck (-5).  KC may be winning games, but they are only +0.1 YPP (average) on the year.  KC is coming off a big win over the SB winners (sea) and next week face the Broncos, then the Cards...a tough schedule spotOakland keeps this on tight and has a shot to win...I am wagering 20% of my straight

wager on the money line.

Note: my rankings are efficiency , not yardage based

Nice way to start the weekend. My first half unders are doing very well this year !

Well done 2-0 start of the week..Always sharp when picking the line...

Thanks j

2* Sd/rams 1st half under 22. Like at 21.5+

2* Miami +7.5 over Denver

I have been betting Miami very often this year because they are so undervalued in the market.  Now, they face the Broncos who are over valued because the public loves betting them.  The Dolphins aren't getting any love because they aren't flashy, but their numbers are very good (and why I took them at 40-1 to win the AFC a few weeks back).  Offensively, they are 7th in rushing effic and 13th in passing effic.  They have the second best defense in the league (behind Det) and are 7th in rushing def effic and 2nd in passing def effic.  Denver's defense is nearly just as good as Miami's (4th vs rush and 5th vs pass in efficiency).  Miami will be able to stop Denver's run game that is average (17th).  Obviously Denver's offense is reliant on Manning and the pass game, but as stated above Mia has one of the best pass defenses in the league. More importantly, the way to contain Denver is to get pressure on Manning, allow him short throws and don't allow YAC (see the Rams last week vs Denv)...and that's precisely what Miami is good at.  The Dolphins have the 5th best defensive line and they are tied for 3rd with 30 sacks.  The Bronco's offensive line is their weak spot and they have been shuffling players around the last few weeks (and even tried out former OL R. Incognito).  Add that to the fact that Denver will likley be without J. Thomas and E. Sanders and I don' see the Broncos scoring many points.  My calculated line is Denver -4.5.  Give me the Phins plus the points and I am also taking 15% of my straight wager on the money line.

2* Denver/Miami 1st half under

Play at 24 +

See analysis above.

1* Minnesota +10 over GB

When a team looks unstoppable and impossible to bet against, that is usually a good time to play against them.  GB has looked great as of late, hence the inflated numbe in this game.  My calculated line is 8.5, and when the books give me an extra 1.5 points (and a key number) I have to take it.  The Vikings strength is their run game (3rd in efficiency) and the will face a Packer run D that is 21st in rushing defensive effic.  The Packers strength is their pass game, but Minnesota's pass D is solid at 10th in efficiency.  The Pack have been fortunate in fumble luck (+4).  There is a great trend favoring the Vikings playing against big favorite teams off 2+ wins vs a losing team.  I think the Vikes pound the rock and get the cover.

2* SD/St. Louis 1st half under

Play a 21.5+

My calculated total is 40.8 on his game.  The Rams DL has been playing lights out recently.  They only had 1 sack their 1st 5 games, but 18 in their most recent 5 games.  Their run D is very good (6th in effic) and SD has no running game (27th).  SD hasn't bettered 21 points in their last 4 games including scoring 13 vs the Raiders and getting shut out vs the Dolphins.  On the other side of the ball, the Rams offense isn't good.  They are 18th in rushing efficency and 27th in passing efficiency.  They average 5.1 yards/play...good enough for 26th.

2* pat/det 1st half und 24