Whenever I read about NFL betting, or when people say what side of the line should I be betting on? The question always gets asked? What are the sharps on? what is the sharp play? What are the public on? Quite frankly I find it quite hilarious, just how much emphasis people have on these so called sharps, and the opinion of lets avoid the 'public'.
Truth of the matter is, it is extremely hard to ever say what the consensus sharp side is. Mainly because in most games the professional bettors will be on both sides. Likewise it is quite frankly impossible to ever accurately measure what percentage of the public are betting on one side, because there is simply too many variables in-place. I know this because I used too work for the UKs biggest sports book. Which is why when you see lines quoted such as "public are betting a certain team 83%" Its utter nonsense and very misleading. Reason being because sports books will NOT depict bets from each match to work out how much money was put on by Pro bettors or general public. It just does not happen that way.
Which leads to my final point of being, never be put off betting a team because you see high percentages bets on the game, its a total non factor, which is so incredibly overrated. Just look at the statistics of each team and decide yourself, as to whether to place the bet, never be influenced by "public" betting percentages, as it is extremely irrelevant. The only exception is when high percentage bets, inflate or deflate the line for example going from +3.0 to 4.5, but that is a totally different situation. Which relates back to your own original research. So basically to summarise my underlying factor of this post. If the line is static and one team is bet on 80% just look past it, if your analysis and statistical work means that playing with the popular bet is the correct play them make it.
Don not fear backing high percentage bets!!!!.