(was +1.5, now +2.5) SAN DIEGO (5 - 3) at MIAMI (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Trends backing San Diego
Last 14 games, Chargers are 10-4 ATS
12-3 ATS as a regular season underdog
Under coach McCoy, when playing out of division
San Diego has lost only 3 of 16 against the spread
Miami, on the other hand,
as a home favorite: 10-36 against the spread
that’s 22%
Early start for SD
It is a 10 am body clock start time
for San Diego on the east coast
but keep in mind that the Charges benefit
from extra rest off a Thursday game
Miami Season stats good
Miami passing defense: #3
Miami pass defense (yards per attempt): #1
But…
Late in 1st Half, Jags had outgained Miami 199 yards to 4 yards.
Jags outgained Miami by 51 yards for the game.
Bortles threw TWO pick-6 interceptions (now FOUR this season!)
Miami won game by 14 points.
*** OTHER
Vegas really like Mike McCoy - Pro bettor David Malinksy called him “a coaching legend in development”
Rookie RB Brandon Oliver
Combined two weeks prior to last week: 215 yards rushing
But then … 13 carries for 36 yards vs. Denver
San Diego’s 5 QBs faced before Peyton Manning last week:
Alex Smith
Derrek Carr
Alex Smith
Blake Bortles
EJ Manuel
SD CB Brandon Flowers expected to play after being out with concussion (rated #1 CB in NFL by Pro Football Focus)
Road team in Miami games 61-40 ATS
Miami has had only one game this season with a margin less than 13 points.
(was +11, now +10.5) JAX (1 - 7) at CINCINNATI (4 - 2 - 1) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Only 8th time double digit favorite since 1990
Cincy Strong at home
Cincy at home: covered 12 of 13 regular season games
Bengals perfect 8-0 ATS at home during 2013 regular season. How rare is that? Cincinnati only 5th team in last 25 seasons to do so.
Crowd frenzy is not main reason from home success – all games not even selling out.
Cincy Stats Not Strong
Cincy defense: #30
Cincy yardage differential: -324 (ranked 25th)
Jags D emerging
Jags D has held opposing offenses to 3 touchdowns the last 4 games. In the four games priors, Jags yielded 38 points per game. Wiseguys feel good about some new faces starting to better understand the defensive system. That said, there were a few Jags defensive injuries two weeks ago (most notably the underrated Paul Posluszny) that has the Wiseguys cautious about their optimism.
***OTHER
AJ Green is status?
Cincy’s RB Bernard doubtful.
Analysis from Pregame.com’s Stephen Nover: It matters for the Bengals especially since they are laying double-digits. Where does the firepower come if Bernard can't play and A.J. Green remains out? Andy Dalton hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in his last two games. The Bengals go back to being a power run team spotlighting Jeremy Hill and resurrecting Cedric Peerman as a change of pace back. Those moves certainly are not conducive to covering a big number.
Road team in Cincinnati games have covered only 5 of last 26
(Cincy) NFL teams off win as home underdog: 42% ATS (230-314-17 since 1994)
Late in 1st Half, Jags had outgained Miami 199 yards to 4 yards.
Jags outgained Miami by 51 yards for the game.
Bortles threw TWO pick-6 interceptions (now FOUR this season!)
Miami won game by 14 points.
Bortles has played 6 games and has 15 turnovers.
Jags Denard Robinson:
Sunday: 108 yards rushing
Prior week: 127 yards rushing
Jags sacked 33 times (most in NFL)
Cincy defense has yielded lowest QB rating in NFL.
Both head coaches were coordinators with Cincinnati last year.
(+6.5) TAMPA BAY (1 - 6) at CLEVELAND (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
How bad is Tampa?
Tampa only team outgained every game this season (7 this season, 10 straight overall)
Mack Loss Huge:
First game for Browns without Center Mack: 30 rushes from 69 yards (John Greco moved over from RG, and Paul McQuistan, who started 14 games for Seattle and grabbed a Super Bowl ring LY, played RG)
Second game without Mack: 25 rushes for 39 yards (Nick McDonald, who only has four career starts, and last played in 2012, was signed to play center, with Greco being moved back to RG, and McQuistin to the bench)
Look ahead?
First time since 1995 favored by more than a FG for a third straight game.
First time ever Browns favored by 5 points or more a third straight game (25 years of data)
Browns travel to Cincinnati on Thursday.
***OTHER
Road team in Tampa games this season: 6-1 ATS
Bucs have covered 8 straight November games
Tampa Bay shutout through 3 quarters last week by Vikings
The SU winner of the last 35 Cleveland games has covered 31 times (spread has mattered only four times)
Raiders outgained Browns by 81 yards last week
Cleveland defense: #29
(+1) WASHINGTON (3 - 5) at MINNESOTA (3 - 5) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
RG3
RG3 return: combination of rust and questions about being 100%, Vegas has NOT upgraded Washington with return of RG3 (though certain an upgrade in future games once those questions are answered.
Even with below average quarterbacking this season, Washington’s WRs have performed exceptionally (1200 yards after catch; yards per completion #2 in NFL)
Washington passing (yards per attempt): #1
Washington: 3rd best yardage differential in league
If Minny Stays favored
Would be the first time Minny is favored in over a calendar year
Minny as a favorite: 2-8 ATS streak
Washington as underdog: 5-12 ATS
Minny’s QB Play
Minny: 5 TD passes (least in NFL)
Minny: 5 INTs thrown (2nd most in NFL)
***OTHER
Vikings in last 4 weeks have yielded 20 sacks
Washington: 3-13 SU last 16 games (won two straight)
If Washington favored:
Wash as favorite: 53-83-3 ATS
(was -2, now -1) PHILADELPHIA (5 - 2) at HOUSTON (4 - 4) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Vegas Not High on Philly
ESPN.com ranks Philly as the 5th best team
Our Vegas rankings have them 9th
and if you dig into the stats …
Philly’s yardage differential is 15th in the league
Catching on to Chip Kelly?
Pros I talk to feel like
the league is beginning to learn how to defend against the Chip Kelly scheme …Compared to last season
Philly has gained 11% LESS yards per offense snap in 2014
Philly has won 12 of last 15 regular season games.
Eagles have scored seven TDs from their defense or special teams, while not allowing any.
***OTHER
Houston 20th in yardage differential (-217 yards)
Houston has given up 10 sacks combined the last two weeks.
Eagles have yielded only 2 sacks their last 6 games
(sacked total of 7 times this season – least in NFL)
Vegas considers Nick Foles to be an average QB.
(Philly) NFL away favorite off game as away underdog: 19-5-1 ATS streak
(+9.5) NY JETS (1 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Huge Anti-Jets Sentiment
Jets have covered only ONE GAME this season – least in NFL
12 of last 13 losses by Jets by a TD or more
Early line on this game (before last week’s games): KC -5.5
Most points KC favored by in any game since 2003
KC has covered 6 straight games
(beating the Vegas number by a combined 85 points)
Chiefs as home favorite: 6-20 ATS
QB #1 Problem for Jets
Geno Smith career: 19 TDs; 38 turnovers
Vick had 3 turnovers in partial game vs. Buffalo
Vick has an awful 48.2 Passer Rating this season, and has been sacked seven times in only 63 drop-backs, with four fumbles.
Vegas considers Smith and Vick to be EVEN – no upgrade or downgrade.
Coach Reid has deep knowledge of QB Vick
How important is quarterback? Pro bettor David Malinsky believes that Jets would be a Top 5 team in the NFL if they had a Top 5 quarterback.
Road Team Advantage
Road team in KC games: 11-2 ATS
Road team in Jets games: 8-1 ATS
***OTHER
KC favored by over a TD: 21-1 SU (16-6 ATS)
KC: Alex Smith last 49 games as a starter: 35-13-1 SU
KC DC Bob Sutton was DC for Jets under Rex Ryan
Last week’s loss to Buffalo was a crusher … Jets motivation is now certainly a question – but note that Rex Ryan has been an excellent motivator over the years.
Jets covered 8 of 10 as underdog by a TD or more
Jets yardage differential: -11 yards this season (near even, implying an average team)
Jets passing offense: #32
Jets passing (yards per attempt): #32
Jets scoring defense: #30
Jets defense has yielded highest QB rating in league
Jets have given up 22 TD passes this season – most in NFL
Jets have intercepted 1 pass this season – least in NFL
Jets have thrown 7 TD passes this season – second least in NFL
Jets have thrown 11 interceptions this season – second most in NFL
Jets rushing offense: #4
KC rushing offense: #3
KC defense: #3
KC passing defense: #1
KC scoring defense: #3
(+3.5) ARIZONA (6 - 1) at DALLAS (6 - 2) - 11/2/2014, 1:00 PM
Romo
If Romo were 100%, this line would be about right
but there’s a good chance he won’t be 100%
and there’s a small chance he won’t even play
Dallas as home favorite:
Dallas as home favorite: covered only 7 of last 28 games
Arizona’s Impressive W/L Results
Arizona stats are not great
Arizona yardage differential: -361 yards (26th in league)
but last 16 games
Arizona is 13-3 SU (losing only one game by more than 3 points)
Losing only 3 against the spread
Arizona Rush D
#3 in the league
have not allowed a 100 yard rusher this season
Dallas’ strong rushing this season has obscured the fact that their defense may be NO BETTER than last year’s historically bad unit …
Opponent Completion %:
2013: 64.7 … 2014: 66.4
Opponent Yards Per Pass:
2013: 7.8 … 2014: 7.4
Opponent Yards Per Rush:
2013: 4.7 … 2014: 4.8
Sack % per opponent pass attempt:
2013 … 5.2% … 2014 … 3.4%
Going from the antiquated designs of Monte Kiffin to Rod Marinelli’s schemes will be an upgrade, but the talent pool on that side of the ball is a shallow one. The points allowed have dropped because the offense has been controlling the ball more, allowing 57.6 plays per game to the opposition, down from 67.8 in 2013. But when the other side does snap the ball, the defense has not really been any better at all - (Via Pregame.com’s David Malinsky)
***OTHER
Return of Arizona DL C. Campbell is meaningful
Arizona’s Patrick Peterson left game in 2nd Quarter with a concussion. Expected to play this week.
Cards on road 42-55-4 ATS (since 2002)
Carson Palmer with TD passes of 75 and 80 yards last week
(Cardinals) NFC West teams as underdogs: 23-13-1 ATS
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time (51-21 ATS the last 4+ seasons)
Dallas – in midst of 5 home games out of 6 games
Tony Romo in November has won 24 of 29 games (SU)
Note that LB Justin Durant was lost for the season last week. Injury expert Stephen Nover believes Durant was Dallas’ best healthy linebacker.
The Cowboys ran the ball by design on 37.5 percent of their plays Monday night, their second-lowest percentage in a game this season.
QB play in that game …
Romo: 17/28 for 209 yards (1 TD / 0 INT)
Weeden: 4/6 for 69 yards (1 TD / 0 INT)
McCoy: 25/30 for 299 yards (0 TD / 1 INT)
Arizona: #25 offense
Arizona passing defense: #32
Arizona has thrown only 1 interception this season
Arizona +9 turnovers (second best in NFL)
Arizona rush defense: #3
Dallas rushing offense: #1
(+10) ST LOUIS (2 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 4:05 PM
SF Off a Loss and Bye
Coach Harbaugh has lost 13 regular season games. Their opponent the next game has scored more than 13 points only four times.
Harbaugh with extra rest (bye, Thursday game, or first game of season): 10-3 ATS
Overall … 49ers have lost only 7 of last 23 games ATS
Rams Beat Up
Three members of the OL, Scott Wells, Jake Long and Roger Saffold, left and did not return last week. WR Brian Quick was lost, as was DE Williams Hayes, as well as Cody Davis and Rodney McLeod from the secondary (via Pregame.com’s David Malinsky).
Stephen Nover considered WR Quick to be Rams only decent receiver (likely out for season).
Possible Look ahead
San Fran plays at New Orleans next week
***OTHER
SF with Harbaugh: 37-21-5 ATS overall
San Fran Center Kilgore injured out. Rookie Marcus Martin will get his first start.
Jeff Fischer strong as underdog throughout his career
winning 59% of the time against the Vegas number when getting points [92-65 ATS]
Rams gained only 200 yards of offense against KC
Wiseguys even more down on QB Austin Davis than you might expect – feeling as if the film has exposed his weaknesses in a way that will make it hard for him to be effective moving forward.
(Rams) NFL road dogs off road loss: 62% ATS (164-99-3 since 2003)
(Rams) NFC West teams as underdogs: 23-13-1 ATS
Rams rush defense: #31
Rams scoring defense: #31
Rams defense has 6 sacks this season – least in NFL
(-3) DENVER (6 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 2) - 11/2/2014, 4:25 PM
37th game out time of last 38 that Denver has been favored
Broncos since start of last season: 21-5 SU (winning 20 times by a TD or more)
Pats home dog!
Biggest home underdog for Patriots since 2005
New England has won 41 of 44 regular season home games (SU)
As Underdog: Bill Belichick with Patriots: 39-21-1 ATS
Brady as home underdog in his career: 9-2 ATS
***OTHER
Denver off Thursday game (extra rest)
In Manning’s career, off a Thursday game:
8-3 ATS (3-0 in Denver, covering by at least 14 points every game)
Many excels with extra prep time.
For example: Manning has covered 9 straight off a full bye.
Denver with Manning as a favorite 26-12 ATS
Pats at home when NOT laying double digits: 13-3 ATS
Road team in New England games: covered only 7 of last 26 games
Wiseguys like to fade popular teams
but that hasn’t worked against New England
If you had bet $1000 AGAINST the Pats & Bellichick every game since Brady’s first start, you’d be DOWN $49,000!
Tom Brady on passes 15 yards or more downfield:
Week 1 and 2: 12.3 QBR
Since: 99 QBR
Rob Gronkowski not only played a good statistical game Sunday, but his physicality now seems back near 100%.
(Pats) NFL teams playing 3rd straight home game, going for 3rd straight win: 36% ATS (31-56-1 since 1990)
Current weather forecast: 42 degrees (partly cloudy)
Update: http://www.wunderground.com/sports/NFL/
Denver defense: #4
Denver rush defense: #1
Patriots passing defense: #2
Pats +11 turnovers (best in NFL)
(+15) OAKLAND (0 - 7) at SEATTLE (4 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 4:25 PM
Biggest favorite EVER for team with 4-3 record (data goes back 25 years)
Seattle Super at home
Russell Wilson at QB: 19-2 SU at home (15-6 ATS)
Seattle laying over TD at home: 18-6-1 ATS (since 2005)
Zero Win Teams add zeros to your winnings!
(Oakland) NFL winless underdogs (week 6 or later): 63% ATS (97-57-5 since 1992)
***OTHER
Oakland’s worst start to a season since 1962 (started that season 0-13)
Oakland has scored more than 14 points ONLY ONCE this season
Raiders outgained Browns by 81 yards
but Raiders were down 23-6 until Oakland TD with 7 seconds left in game.
(Oakland) NFL road dogs off road loss: 62% ATS (164-99-3 since 2003)
Seattle (starting in 2005): 68% ATS at home (54-25-2)
On road during same period: 41% (33-48-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 102-58-3 (64% winners)
Seattle: 26-12-1 ATS overall last 39 games
Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 27-11-1 ATS
Seattle D-line not as deep this year – which increases the chance of wearing down as the season progresses.
(-1) BALTIMORE (5 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 3) - 11/2/2014, 8:30 PM
First time since 1991 Steelers a home underdog for 2nd straight game
Pitt home underdog 8 times in regular season since 2000
Nature of this series
9 out of last 12 Pittsburgh/Baltimore games have been decided by 3-points or less
6 straight Ravens at Steelers (in Pitt) regular season matchups decided by exactly 3 points.
Only 3 of last 24 Pitt/Balt has produced more than 43 combined points
Pitt against Pass
Pittsburgh: Extra thin Corner after Ike Taylor injury
Since injury, Pittsburgh has faced:
Mike Glennon
Blake Bortles
Brian Hoyer
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Last week, Andrew Luck threw for 400 yards with 3 TDs
Ravens off loss
Ravens off loss: 23-5 the next game (straight-up)
2 instances this season … won by 20 and 31 points.
***OTHER
Baltimore’s 24 points given up last week most this season by Ravens.
Baltimore scoring defense: #2
Ravens have given up 7 TD passes this season – least in NFL
CB Jimmy Smith OUT
Smith was on his way to a likely Pro Bowl appearance, and now joins Asa Jackson on the sidelines from that position. Unless someone is signed this week, the rotation is down to Lardarius Webb, still not back to form following a back injury; Dominique Franks, who re-signed on October 7 after being cut back in August; and Chykie Brown, who has been inactive the last two weeks (via Pregame.com’s David Malinsky)
Ravens: 4th road game in last 5
Steelers gained 639 yards of offense last week
Colts did have key DB injuries during game.
Steelers own DBs struggled. Big questions in Pitt secondary.
(Pitt) NFL teams playing 3rd straight home game, going for 3rd straight win: 36% ATS (31-56-1 since 1990)
(Pitt) NFL teams off win as home underdog: 42% ATS (230-314-17 since 1994)
(-3.5) INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3) at NY GIANTS (3 - 4) - 11/3/2014, 8:30 PM
Public Loving Colts
Colts only NFL team with 6 covers this season
Colts: #1 offense
Colts: #1 passing offense
Colts: #2 points scored
Colts: Best yardage differential in NFL
Trends Backing Colts
Off a loss: Colts 14-1 ATS next game
Against losing teams, 14-3 against the spread
Giants underperform at home
At home: Giants only 2 of 15 winning seasons ATS
Last 21 times Giants a home underdog, won game only 4 times
Bye Should be Big For Giants
Max focus on must-win game
And have time to adjust for loss of WR Victor Cruz
NY GIANTS: Victor Cruz ... This is a tough blow for an offense that was already struggling. Cruz was the only WR that could stretch the field, averaging 14.7 on his 23 receptions, so not only is there the downgrade at his particular position, but the fact that defenses can also squat more on Reuben Randle. Rookie Odell Beckham has some potential, but a hamstring injury kept him out of training camp, so his learning curve is a steep one. Preston Parker has limited upside. Corey Washington is another rookie, from a small school (Newberry), and has yet to catch a pass. Kevin Ogletree was signed yesterday, but he is a journeyman now wearing his fourth different uniform in three seasons, and is not much more than a limited patch. The absence of Cruz may mean more here than his overall abilities would call for, because the pieces are not there to replace him. (via David Malinsky)
*** OTHER
(Giants) Since 2001, NFL Monday Night Home underdogs: 32-46 ATS
Much better at home over Luck’s career (reg season and playoffs)
Won 17-4 SU (15-6 ATS) at home; 11-11 SU on road (12-10 ATS)
Andrew Luck: 26-14 ATS during regular season in his career
Dave Malinksy feels as if Andrew Luck has played better than any QB in the NFL this season.
(Colts) NFL teams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 16-37 against the spread.
Colts rushing before last week seemed OK, but Colts had not trailed since September 15, a span of 307:47 of game time … vs. Pittsburgh (behind most of the game) only 7 rushing attempts from RBs.
Colts CB Vontae David is expected to play (was hurt last week vs. Pitt). Pregame Pro and injury expert Stephen Nover believes Davis is the most important player on Indy’s defense, and considers him better than Darrelle Revis!