The following is taken from this week's feature in my College & Pro Football Newsletter. I included a chart that shows the season by season ATS results of Home Underdogs from 1982 through 2013, a total of 32 seasons. My source has been the Closing Line at the Stardust in Las Vegas through the middle of the 2006 season, when the Stardust ceased operations. From that point forward and still currently, the closing lines from the Hilton/LVH/Westgate have been used. Here is the summary I printed of the results --
Witness how Home Underdogs have done over the years. Over the past 32 seasons Home Underdogs are 1213-1134-70 ATS, or 51.68%. That’s below the 52.4% needed to break even laying 11 to 10! Since 1982 the best season for Home Underdogs was 1996 when they went 39-25-0 for 60.9%, a profit of 11.5 net units (2002 & 2006 were close behind). The worst was 2005 as Home Pups went 29-47-4 for just 38.2% and a whopping loss of 22.7 net units (previously 1984 had produced the poorest results). Of the past 32 seasons there have been only 9 seasons in which Home Underdogs hit at less than 50%. BUT 5 OF THOSE SUB .500 SEASON HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST 10 seasons! There have also been 6 seasons in which Home Dogs hit above 50% but below the ‘break even’ point of 52.4%). There have been 17 seasons in which Home Underdogs turned a profit, but in 9 of them the profit was less than 2.0 net units for the entire season!
Blindly betting Home Dogs between 1982 and 2004 would have produced a net profit of just 7.7 units but that entire profit was more than offset by the loss in 2005 of 22.7 net units for a net loss, on a flat bet basis, of 15.0 units over more than 1,700 plays -- hardly the definition of long term success -- or success at all for that matter. 10.8 units were “recovered” in 2006 but most of that was given back in 2007 when Home Underdogs produced a net loss of 8.6 units with more given back in 2008 when Home Underdogs produced a net loss of 13.1 units and another 8.6 units of loss suffered in 2009. 2010 produced a very slight profit of 1.2 net units followed by 2011 netting 3.2 units of profit, But the past 2 seasons, 2012 and 2013, resulted in another 2.3 and 2.0 net units of loss, respectively. Thus there has been an overall NET LOSS of 34.4 units by blindly having bet NFL Home Dogs over the past 32 seasons! Quite a surprise to nearly everyone. Especially when that entire net loss has occurred in just the past 9 seasons and there have been net losses with Home Underdogs in 8 of the past 11 seasons!