Top pick – 5 or 6 units - Pitt/FH (first half) for 4 units at -1 (play now) or 3 units at -1.5, combined with 2 unit Pitt team prop (at -130 or 135 odds) that Steelers will be first team to score. As far as playing the FH pick if your current FH line is 1.5, we suggest playing 1.5 units (half of your play) now at -1.5, and wait until 5-10 minutes before KO for a -1 for the other 1.5 units
Team totals pick - Pitt team total Over 23 (120) for 2.5 units (play now at 23), or Over 23.5 for 1.5 units, pass at 24> - but if your TT for Pitt is 23.5>, then we suggest waiting a bit longer for a 23, as despite consensus side and total remaining at 3 and 44, some 2.5s have popped up, and odds moves against both Pitt and the Over suggest money is coming in on Hous and the Under, which could later result in a favorable line change for the side and/or the team totals.
Full game pick(s) on Pitt – 2-3 units, depending on whether your current line for Pitt is -2.5 or -3 (see guidelines below for how I would play Pitt, depending on lines)
Given the current line situation (line now split about 50/50 between 2.5 and 3 at most off-shore books, with ML -145 or 150 virtually everywhere), this is how I would suggest playing Pitt for the game - if your line is still 3, and it costs -130 > to buy it down to 2.5, then play Pitt for 1-2 units (depending on your line) at -145 -155 ML odds, and Pitt for one unit at -3. But if your line for Pitt is now -2.5, play all 3 units on Pitt at -2.5, and forget playing them on the ML. And in that event (Pitt -2.5), add 2 units to your 3 pick teaser on Pitt (at +4.5) with Over 37< tonite and Denver (-1/2) Thurs nite, making that teaser 4 units.
Game Over pick for 2 units (one unit Over 44 and one unit Over 43.5/-120)
Team and scoring prop plays on Pitt
Playing the below two team and scoring “prop picks” on tonite's MNF game (in addition to team prop on Pitt first team to score (-130 odds) for 2 units, mentioned earlier with FH pick on Pitt), both of which are consistent with my picks and betting attack strategy:
Pitt leads at HT and wins game SU (even odds to -120) – 2.5 units at even or -110 odds, 2 units at -115 or -120
NEITHER TEAM WILL SCORE 3 UNANSWERED TIMES – 2 units at +150 or155 odds
Two winning margin props on Pitt (if you can play them), also consistent with our picks and betting attack strategy, where odds seem ridiculously generous
Pitt to win by 1-6 points (+300 odds) for 2 units (risk 2 units to win 6 units)
Pitt to win by 7-12 points (+900 odds) for one unit (risk one unit to win 9 units)
Side/total 3 team teaser (at +150 teaser odds) – Pitt to +4 with Over (Pitt-Hous) down to 37< with Denver (home Thurs nite vs SD) to-1/2 point for 3 units (risk 3 units to win +4.5 units) if your line for Pitt is -3 (and teasing it by 7 would take it to +4), or for 4 units if your line on Pitt is -2.5 (and teasing it by 7 would take it to +4.5), which would make this teaser even more attractive.
Cross-sport ML parlay - one unit at +215 parlay odds – Pitt/ML at -145 to 155 with Over 5.5 goals in Tampa-Edmonton/NHL (a 6:30 Pacific start)- risk one unit to win +2.15 units
Possible 2H picks
Possible 2H pick on Over if 23< points scored in FH and an Over-friendly 2H totals line
Possible 2H pick on Hous if Pitt is up by 6> at HT and we get an adjusted game line of +7> for Hous
Supporting WUs for picks on Pitt
Overall support for Pitt over Hous
Both of these teams come into tonight’s game with mixed results and identical 3-3 records, but while the Steelers are disappointed with the results, and some former Steeler greats are starting to question the decisions and direction from HC Mike Tomlin and his staff and wondering if changes are needed in the Steel City, the Texans and their fans are generally happy with the progress they have made under first year HC Bill O’Brien, especially after LY’s shockingly disappointing season. The Steelers were embarrassed 31-10 at Cleveland last weekend while the Texans endured another horrifically slow start and lost 33-28 to the Indianapolis Colts. In the NFL, a really solid trend play has always been backing teams with a “backs to the wall” mentality, and that strong trend is enhanced when the “backs to the wall” team is playing on Monday Night Football at home, which is the situation tonight as the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Houston Texans. Also note the following “positives” that Pitt has going into tonite’s game, as well as a major negative” for Houston – (i) Steelers are 25-5 at home in MNF over the years, including 8-0 at their present home, Heinz Field, while Hous in a dreadful 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Monday niters. Pitt is off an embarrassing loss LW at Cleve, and Steelers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games after a loss. Also note (i) that Pitt has lost two of their last three games, and is 6-0 ATS in the fourth game the last six times that has happened, and (ii) Pitt’s 5-0 “zig zig” pattern so far this season, where they have alternated wins and losses ever since their opening win at home over Cleve, with the SU winner being 5-0 ATS in their last five games - and since they lost LW, it’s their turn to win and cover ATS tonite.
While Big Ben Roethlisberger has been inconsistent TY, and recorded a season-low 64.4 rating and threw his first interception in the last four games in LW’s 31-10 drubbing at Cleveland, RB Le Veon . Bell remains consistently great, averaging 5.2 yards a carry and ranking second in the league in rushing yardage, while star wide receiver Antonio Brown is just three yards behind Green Bay's Jordy Nelson for the league lead in receiving yards.
We expect a steady dose of Steelers RB Bell, who we believe will expose a Texans defense that allows 126 yrpg and 4.4 ypc, and has been less than stellar vs. solid running teams (and Pitt, averaging 137 yrpg and 4.9 ypc, certainly qualifies as a solid running team). That should not only help keep JJ Watt, the “Clown” (Jadeveon Clowney, who is ??? tonite after missing five games after knee surgery following the Texans’ opener) and the rest of the Hous pass rush off of Big Ben, who has been sacked 11 times in the past three games, but also set up Big Ben for some nice play action opportunities down the field. And with Houston having surrendered 694 yards through the air in dropping back-to-back decisions to Dallas and Indianapolis in their last two games, and ranked 27th in the league in total defense, Big Ben is likely drooling at the chance to “do his thing” tonite not only in front of the hometown fans, but on the national stage of MNF.
As far as Houston is concerned, the Texans clearly have some All Pro talent, such as RB Arian Foster is third in the NFL in yards rushing, with JJ Watt already having an MVP-type season, while Houston WR Andre Johnson needs just 10 receiving yards to pass Seattle’s Steve Largent (13,089 receiving yards ) for 14th place in NFL history, but the Texans have yet to make good on their promising 2-0 start, having lost 3 of their last 4. And the Texans have had their problems through the air, as QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who started out well in the first two games, but has thrown six interceptions and just three touchdowns in his past four games.
Bottom line, the Steelers simply have too much pride and won’t allow themselves anything but their best performance tonight….and at home on a Monday nite, that should be at least a TD better than these Texans.
Pick specific support for FH pick on Pitt and team prop play on Pitt to score first
In their two home games TY, Pitt is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS, with a pair of last second “verdicts” (a non-covering win over Cleve and a shocking 3 point loss to lowly Tampa, 10 days after Bucs were annihilated in Atlanta, 56-14). But Pitt led both of those home games at the half, Tampa by 17-10 and Cleve by 27-3, the latter after having played a “perfect” first half. In sharp contrast, Hous has been a very slow starter in their two roadies so far TY against respectable opposition (losses at NYG and Dallas), which BTW excludes their early season road win over the pathetic Raiders, failing to score in both FHs, trailing 0-3 in Dallas and 0-14 in NY. Based on the above, Pitt should be the first team to score, and should also have at least a 3 point lead at the half, which is all that we need for both picks to be winners.
Pick specific support for team totals pick on Pitt Over
Despite having gone just 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS In their two home games TY, as noted above, Pitt has scored 30 and 24 points in those two games, both of those offensive outputs Over tonite’s consensus Pitt team total of 23 or 23.5. On the other hand, the fact that Pittsburgh's offense has not only been inconsistent but also ranks 31st in “red zone efficiency” are concerns. Houston’s defense gets lots of attention because of JJ watt, but for that reason, it is over-rated when you look at their numbers - ranked 27th in the league in total defense, having surrendered a combined 694 yards through the air in dropping back-to-back decisions to Dallas and Indianapolis, and coughing up an average of 28 ppg given up to the 3 decent offenses they have faced TY (33 LW to Indy at home, 30 at NYG, and 20 at Dallas).