10/19 10:00 AM NFL (467) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at (468) DETROIT LIONS
FREE PICK: (468) DETROIT LIONS -2.5
At some point, one has to just start believing what they’re seeing. That’s the case for me as far as the Detroit Lions are concerned. I’m now convinced that it’s not a mirage, and that the Lions are totally legit on defense. It’s an impressive group, and they’re just plain dominant on that side of the football right now. That cannot bode well for the visiting New Orleans Saints this Sunday.
The Saints are more reputation than reality. You can make the case they’re fortunate to be 2-3, as that win prior to the bye against the Lowly Buccaneers was anything but easy. Maybe things change, but the data complied through the first five games strongly suggests that this is simply not a good New Orleans team. The offense is still productive, but they’re not good at all at virtually everything else. I can’t say there’s no shot the Saints can turn it around, but the indicators for this happening just aren’t there.
The Lions have shortcomings on offense. It’s really starting to look as though QB Matthew Stafford is as good as he’s ever going to be. I think the Lions brass is starting to reach that same conclusion. What we’re starting to see is more game management play calling rather than the wide open Lions attack we’ve gotten used to seeing.
There are certainly other considerations as to why the Lions are getting more conservative on offense. Chiefly, it’s the staunch defense. The Lions are at the point where the offense’s job is to just not lose the game, and if that’s accomplished the defense can do the winning. There have also been some injuries to the offense, and it looks very much like Calvin Johnson will be sitting again this Sunday.
This is really coming down to what I feel is an at least mildly underrated host against what sure looks to be an overrated visitor. My personal rankings have the Lions as the #8 team in the NFL. The Saints have fallen into the 20’s, so I see them as no more than a slightly below average entry at this juncture. Therefore, I see this number being on the cheap side. I don’t think the market has caught up with just how far the Saints have slid. That means that for the time being, this is a team that will be a fade consideration until the general perception changes. I won’t forecast a blowout, as I absolutely can see this being competitive. But laying a field goal or less with the Lions looks attractive to me.
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My two NFL best bets include getting well over a FG in a matchup between even teams and fading a team whose coach has a shaky grip on his squad.