Got this line early in "NFL Game of the Year" betting as evidenced in the link below.. If the line were to be 4.5 for me betting, it would be a 3*.. but with the line I got, it is a 4* and my most confident pick of this NFL season up to date.. Remember, that does not make it a guerantee, whoever says there are locks in sports betting are liars and fools... /pregame-forums/f/9/t/1001713.aspx
5*
4*
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 (-115) *WINNER*
It may seem square to once again pick a team the super bowl in blow out fashion, and I would not be surprised to see the public loving Seattle in this game, which could scare people off. Don't let it. All week the talk will be about Denver playing this game with strong motivation because of the revenge factor, as broncos defensive end Kevin Vickerson was even quoted saying "F*** seattle". But with Seattles homefield advantage usually being a 4 to 4.5 point advantage, this early line is suggesting Denver to be a better team on a neutral field
The big reason for the bet is the same reason I had a 5* on Seattle in the super bowl.. The eye test. Peyton Manning is a elite quarterback, but only completes 40% of his passes 15 yards and over, and an astounding 80% on short passes.Teams often are scared of the abillity of WR Demariyus Thomas and the rest of the playmaking core to beat them over the top, letting Peyton Manning take what the defense gives him. He is so smart with the ball in his hands, you can not do that. Seattle makes Denver work for everything. Peyton's strength at this point of his career is working the middle of the field. His arm has declined, and making him throw outside the numbers is where he can get in trouble. Seattle is notorious for shutting down tight ends like Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis. They are so strong in the middle of the field with MLB Bobby Wagner, SS Kam Chancellor, and FS Earl Thomas that it neutralizes one of Denver's greatest strength, which is working the middle with Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. When Peyton is forced to throw outside the numbers, often he can get away with having limited arm strength, but Seattle makes quarterbacks throw through tight windows, which Peyton is not as strong at doing as he was 5 years ago.Remember, Peyton Manning is the smartest QB in the league, but Seattle has the smartest defense in the league. These guys are football junkies, Sherman was quoted saying he lets the losers go out and party while he studies film all week. Peyton Manning has such a great mind that he can destroy teams with an average arm, but this is the one team in the league that can come close to matching up with his arm, and they also have the formula to beat him.. Rush 4, Patrol the middle of the field, and make him throw contested passes against tight coverage. The one small concern in this game is Denver's improved defense vs Seattle's offense , which I expect the reason that this game is closer then the last, but in the end I feel that Seattle matches up vs a Peyton Manning led offense as good as you possibly can.
3* Kansas City Chiefs +4 *WINNER*
Kansas City showed they had a lot of heart last week, coming yards away from overtime with the Denver Broncos. With the Chiefs being 0-2 you know they will be desperate, and even though they were over achievers last Season, don't think the team is as bad as people are making it out to be. Jamaal charles will likely be out but Knile Davis a very capable backup against a porous Dolphins defensive line. Miami is also historically the past few seasons one of the least meaningful home field advantages when compared to other teams in the league. The Chiefs still have 3 pro bowlers in there front 7 (Poe/Hali/Houston) and I think they can put some pressure on Tannehill and the dolphins suspect offensive line. Take the points in this match up..
2* Washington Redskins +7 (-120) *WINNER*
Last week Eagles offensive line issues weren't exposed vs a weak Colts front 7, but this week the loss of there starting lg and rt could play huge against Barry coefield, and especially against Ryan Kerrigan, who had 4 sacks last week vs Jacksonville. Washington has possibly better weapons then Philly, and Philly is also not the strongest of home teams compared to others around the league. big factor for me is that when your franchise QB goes down, usually the rest of the team will step up the following week after the coaches preaching everyone else on the roster must step up due to the loss of the franchise QB. Think we see a strong effort, power ranked this game at Washington +5 so jump on ASAP!
New York Jets -2
Jets have VERY similar formula to buffalo who beat the Bears.. Control the LOS, shut down the run and force cutler into mistakes. Think Jets run game proves to be to much for bears defense reeling with injuries and was below average to begin with. Jets weak in secondary but I will take strength in the trenches over that..
1*
San Francisco 49ers -2.5 *LOSER*
Got this play before it likely hits 3.. San Francisco has reputation for coming back strong after a loss under harbaugh.. Still like them against palmer but thinking Stanton might be out there.. Stanton's inaccuracy will haunt Arizona vs a tougher opponent then last weeks giants.
New York Giants -1 *WINNER*
Not much time for a write up.. GMen started 0-6 last year and know this home game is there season.. Houston overrated, No arian foster will hurt this team today.. expecting a low scoring game and a small Giants win