Ken Thomson said:
..... When he elected to throw the ball on a third down inside the the Eagles 30 with five minutes left, he got what he deseved!! An INT!! You have the MOST RELIABLE kicker in NFL in Vinatieri who does not miss in the dome and inside 45 is as AUTOMATIC as could be! A safe screen or a handoff would have set the Colts up to be up 10 with five minutes left. I ask Hamilton...."Would you do that in the Super Bowl or in a Playoff game?" If his answer is Yes...I'd can his ass....if his answer was no....I ask..then why do it in a game that can help you get to the Post Season......
The chance of an INT in the NFL is about 2.77% per attempt.
A 40-yard FG is converted about 85% of the time with Vinatieri's FG% rate of about 83.8% in the last 3 years.
Basically you have a 97.2% chance of NOT throwing an INT there and potentially picking up the 1st down, draining a ton of clock and basically ending the game, versus playing it 'safe' and attempting a FG with say an 85% success rate. Remember, you are still not guaranteed to win the game at that point, as this Eagles offense is so prolific that scoring 10 points in the final 5+ minutes isn't out of the question for them (they actually did do it last night).
Coaches that play it safe almost NEVER last in the NFL for too long (there are some exceptions I'm sure). But when we are talking about "safe vs not-safe", we are typically talking about going for it on 4th and 1 from the 10-yard line for example, which is 95% of the time the RIGHT play (and for some reason is considered 'aggressive' by most talking-heads/fans). When we are talking about trying to pick up a first down on 3rd and 9, with a 2.7% chance of an INT, that's not about being "not-safe", that's just about making the correct NFL play and trying to win the game. I see nothing wrong with the play-calling there. That was the right play and there was nothing 'risky' about it. INT's / fumbles / missed FG's happen in the NFL and it's typically impossible to predict them. With Luck at QB and a mediocre Eagles defense, you had to make that throw.
I'm on the other side of you here. If I was the coach and I asked Pep the same question you would: "Would you do that in the Super Bowl or in a Playoff game?"...and if he answered NO, then I would can his ass. :)
I want my coaches/players to make the right NFL plays and try to win the game, not play it 'safe', which too many mediocre coaches do these days already IMO.