(+2.5) DETROIT (1 - 0) at CAROLINA (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Lions reaction to strong performance
After scoring 30 points or more last week, Detroit lost 12 straight ATS
Lions a football-sexy team – market inflates price
Detroit (overall since 2011): 19-31 ATS
On grass: covered only 4 of 13
How much does one game change?
Carolina won 12 games last year
Expected to win only 7.5 in 2014 (4.5 less)
Week 1 fluke or?
Ron Rivera, in three prior seasons, has started seasons 1-5 SU and 1-6 SU and 1-3 SU (2013) . . . 1-0 in 2014
OTHER
Lions on the road (starting in 2006): 23-39-3
Calvin Johnson benefits from stricter D-back rules
Though not playing, Derek Anderson: 9th ranked QB in week 1
Cam Newton in one-score games: 7-14 SU in career (won last 5)
(-1) MIAMI (1 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Buffalo feels like the sharp side
Public back Miami after big win over Tom Brady
And Buffalo is good at home
But, Wiseguys extremely impressed . . .
Miami WON against New England while LOSING the turnover battle.
Entering last week:
Pats under Bellichick: 127-10 when winning turnover battle
NEVER losing by double digits.
Miami won by 13 points.
Digging into boxscore tells different story about Buffalo’s win
Chicago had 29-15 first down edge
Bills benefited +2 turnover margin
Teams +2 in turnovers historically only lose 18% of the time
OTHER
Miami better on road: 57-39 ATS
True home team in Bills games: 15-3 ATS (disregarding game in Canada)
Miami’s D made Brady the 29th ranked QB last week
2nd half NE offense: 0 points and only 67 total yards
Bills last 42 games: lost against the spread by a NET 132 points combined
(+6) JAX (0 - 1) at WASHINGTON (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Redskins – Bad Team / Bad Favorite
Last 9 games:
Washington is winless (outscored by 135 points)
Jacksonville has won 4 times in their last 9
And the Redskins struggle as a favorite:
covering the spread only 39% of the time their last 82 games favored [52-82-3]
And Washington has not been favored by as many as 6 points since 2009
Washington was unlucky last week
Washington was unlucky in week one against Houston
giving up TD on punt block
fumble 1& Goal
fumble on 9 yard line
(+3.5) DALLAS (0 - 1) at TENNESSEE (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Dallas as a dog
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time (46-19 ATS the last 4+ seasons)
When dogs by more than a FG: 12-3 ATS
When dogs vs AFC: Covered 9 straight
Relative struggle at home
Home team in Titans games has covered only 4 of last 17
OTHER
Titans 41-21 ATS in non-conference games (since 1992)
Tenn’s Locker 6th ranked QB last week
(-2.5) ARIZONA (1 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Tough situation doesn’t stop history
Arizona off Monday night game, then traveling across country for 10 am PT start
Still . . . first time Arizona favored at NY Giants in 20 years
Cards sneaky good
One of 6 teams last year to cover 10+ games
Giants struggles
At home:
Giants only 2 of 15 winning seasons ATS
New York has been slow bot pick up new offensive scheme
Manning: 31st ranked QB last week
OTHER
Cards covered only 43% on road since 2002 (40-54-4)
Arizona – 2nd best defense last year (by advanced metrics)
(-3) NEW ENGLAND (0 - 1) at MINNESOTA (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Feels like a must-win for Pats
First time in 12 years Patriots under .500
Off loss, Patriots 28-10 ATS (since 2003)
Patriots off loss as fav, vs. winning team: 13-1 ATS
Can’t ignore big struggles on road
The home team in New England games: 16-3 ATS
Las week on road
Brady 29th ranked QB last week
2nd half offense: 0 points and only 67 total yards
OTHER
Patriots on road: lost as fav last week: 13-2 ATS
Minny’s Cassel 4th ranked QB last week
Belichick’s knowledge of Cassel is a possible factor.
Minny played first half vs. backup and 2nd half vs. 3rd stringer last week vs. St. Louis
Minny first regular season game in new stadium
(-6.5) NEW ORLEANS (0 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
3 Super Trends
Two favor Saints
Saints off a road loss: 20-3 ATS (from 9/24/2007)
(6-2 when second game is on road)
Browns in home openers: Covering only 1 of their last 15!
But you can’t ignore:
The road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton) have covered only 5 of 38 games
On turf last season: Breese 35 TD / 8 INTS
On grass: 4 TDs / 4 Ints
Browns deceiving last week?
Much of Browns 2nd half success against Pitt based upon schematic shift – something they didn’t show in preseason.
Plus, cause to wonder how good Pitt is after Baltimore game
OTHER
Saints bet big in every way leading up to season
Saints D: 2013 much improved. Game One in 2014 not.
Coach Payton off a loss: 18-5 ATS
Under Coach Payton: 24-12 ATS last 36 games
The SU winner of the last 29 Cleveland games has covered 25 times (spread has mattered only four times)
Browns: pro bettor David Malinsky told me perhaps worst skill players on a team in the last Decade!
(+5) ATLANTA (1 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 1:00 PM
Falcons are better than last year
Injuries last year – especially Julio Jones – were key
Impressive game last week
Matt Ryan top ranked QB in league
Too big a reaction?
Atlanta +3 at home LW meant Saints would have been -10 at home
This game -5 (Saints really 5 points better than Cincy?)
NFL teams the week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 52-85-4 ATS (38% since 2005)
Cincy historic at home
Bengals perfect 8-0 ATS at home during regular season. How rare is that? Cincinnati only 5th team in last 25 seasons to do so.
And that win in Baltimore last week looks even more impressive
OTHER
Road team in Cincinnati games have covered only 4 of last 20
Last week, first 6 times Cincy in scoring territory – 5 FG, 1 missed FG (only 15 total points)
Atlanta has covered 6 straight as an underdog
Atlanta 2013: Worst D against the pass last season
(+6) ST LOUIS (0 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 4:05 PM
Can’t win in this league without a QB
Shaun Hill did not practice Thursday.
So either backup without practice will play
or 3rd stringer with barely any experience.
Rams scrappy as dog
Jeff Fisher as a underdog: 90-61 ATS (60%) in his coaching career
Worst home field?
Tampa 13-31 ATS at home
(-6) SEATTLE (1 - 0) at SAN DIEGO (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 4:05 PM
Max love for Seattle
Dominated Peyton Manning and Denver in Super Bowl in front of world
Dominated Aaron Rodgers and Packers in front of world
Backers with bulging pockets:
Seattle: 24-8-1 ATS overall last 33 games
47 straight games in which Seattle has not lost by more than a TD (Nov 2011) – next game will be an NFL record!
90% of bets on Seattle
Love is expensive
And Seattle is dominant at home
but a different team on the road
covering only 42% of the time over the last decade
Only 2nd time since 2003 San Diego is this big an underdog at home
100% effort?
Seattle hosting Denver next week
OTHER
Perception affect by Chargers making it to the Final 8 in the NFL last year
Entering last week of season
Huge underdogs to even make the playoffs
Wiseguys really like Mike McCoy - Pro bettor David Malinksy called him “a coaching legend in development”
Non-Div: 25-8-1 against non-division foes
Seattle with 10 days rest; SD off MNF road game
Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (53-24-2)
On road during same period: 42% (32-45-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 98-56-3 (64% winners)
Seattle has covered 11 of 13 on road
(-3) HOUSTON (1 - 0) at OAKLAND (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 4:25 PM
Both teams looked better than reality
Yardage count with 2:39 left in game:
NY Jets 404 Oakland 85
Raiders covered – perhaps as bad a beat as you will ever see.
Houston didn’t play as well as scoreboard either:
Wash gave up TD on punt block; fumble 1& Goal; fumble on 9 yard line
Houston Love?
Week 1: Houston first 3-13 or worse team to be favored in Week 1 since 1995 . . . now a road favorite!
Oakland worst?
Many pro bettors consider Oakland to be worst team in league
Oakland at home: 30-57-1 (since 2003)
OTHER
Houston’s Fitzpatrick 8th ranked QB last week
Matt Schaub’s knowledge of Houston a possible factor
(+8.5) NY JETS (1 - 0) at GREEN BAY (0 - 1) - 9/14/2014, 4:25 PM
Jet’s dominate, but . . .
NY Jets 404 Oakland 85 at 2:39 left in game (yardage)
Geno Smith: 25 ints and fumbles last year. Only 12 TD passes.
55% of passes complete last year.
Week 1: 82% of passes. 1 TD pass. But 2 turnovers last week.
Improved QB or lucky game?
Green Bay must win, but …
Teams FAVORED the week after playing Seattle: 6-19 ATS last 25
GB LT (Bulaga) hurt – would typically rest him this week, but his replacement was so bad, they are pressing.
GB at Detroit next week
OTHER
Jets covered 6 of 7 as underdog by a TD or more
Packers covered 8 of 9 laying a TD or more
(+12.5) KANSAS CITY (0 - 1) at DENVER (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 4:25 PM
Best offense in NFL history?
32nd straight game Denver has been favored (20-11 against the spread in prior 31)
Denver won 16 games since start of last season, 15 by a TD or more
Resulting in . . .
Denver with Manning: as a favorite 22-11 ATS
KC not good
2013: KC outgained 12 of 17 games last season
KC: Key defensive injuries in week 1
KC is a scrappy dog
KC of 10+ point loss, as 10+ point dog: 10-0 ATS
Andy Reid on road: 62% ATS in career (79-49 ATS)
Denver at Seattle next week
OTHER
KC as an underdog of more than 10 points: 15-4 ATS (one game in 1998; next game in 2006)
KC last year: +19 turnover differential (2nd best in league)
year before: -22 worse in league
Alex Smith last 43 games as a starter: 31-11-1 SU
33 ranked QB last week
SNF: (+6.5) CHICAGO (0 - 1) at SAN FRAN (1 - 0) - 9/14/2014, 8:30 PM
Overperformer vs Underperformer
Bears have covered only 4 of last 17 games ATS
49ers: Lost only 4 of last 17 games ATS
Running team vs. bad run D
Bears: After finishing last against the run in 2013, allowing 161.4 per game at 4.5 per attempt, the defense was run over by Buffalo to the tune of 193 rushing yards at 5.8
San Fran (and Seattle) only two teams to rush for more yards last year than they threw for.
OTHER
Chicago 29-15 first down edge in loss last week
SF: 1st regular season game at new stadium
SF WITH Harbaugh: 35-18-4 ATS (66%)
Benefit from big receives with the game being called tighter in D backfield.
MNF: (+3) PHILADELPHIA (1 - 0) at INDY (0 - 1) - 9/15/2014, 8:35 PM
Luck bounces back
Off a loss: Colts 13-0 ATS next game
Much better at home:
Luck’s career
Won 14-3 SU at home; 9-10 SU on road
Other than Luck?
Serious people have claimed Colts have the worst team in the league other than at QB
Last 2 seasons combined, Colts have been outgained by opponents (Indy made playoffs both years)
Philly trend line
New offense and defense last season
Played much better in 2nd half
2013: Quarterback Foles this season: 29 TDs and 2 INTs
(2 TDs and 1 INT last week)
Philly fell behind against Jax, but ultimately outgained by over 110 yards
OTHER
Colts at home: 13-5-1 ATS