2014 NFL Preview by VegasButcher
I’m going to do something different this year. Instead of going team-by-team, and division by division, I’m going to focus on week 1 matchups and preview each team in the context of that. There are plenty of good sources on the web with an overview of the league and each team, breaking down each team’s offense, defense, and special-teams. I will touch up on those things in my preview but within the contest of the betting odds. Let’s get to it!
BUF @ CHI -6.5
O/U: 48
Season Totals (Pinnacle):
Chicago Bears O 8.5 @ -145
Buffalo Bills O 6.5 @ -154
The opener was -6 here and has now crept up about half a point. Let’s remember that Chicago had the worst run-defense in the league last year, and what does Buffalo want to do? Run the ball of course. With a healthy Spiller, never-aging Jackson, and an explosive Bryce Brown (though he won’t be used much unless there’s an injury), the Bills have plenty of runners at their disposal. The question is, how much did the Bears improve defensively? They signed Allen and Houston, drafted 3 defenders in the first 3 rounds of the draft (1 CB and 2 DT’s), and will have Paea return from missing most of last season with an injury. This defense will be better than last year that’s for sure, but of course everything needs to align perfectly for them to approach league-average. Buffalo’s O-line ranked 14th last year in run blocking and of course Buffalo’s RB’s ranked 6th in the open field, and area where Bears were 32nd defensively. That’s due to having probably the worst safeties in the league, one area that wasn’t really addressed this off-season. Spiller has track-speed, so if he gets past the front-7, look out. Defensively, Buffalo had one of the better pass-defenses in the league, as their front-4 is awesome and their secondary was excellent last year. They ranked 2nd in sacks and 2nd in INT’s. Of course prior to last season, Buffalo had a bottom-10 defense for 3 straight years and in the off-season lost Byrd to free agency, their stud MLB Kiko Alonso to injury, and of course their D-coordinator to the Cleveland Browns. The one thing that the Bears are very good at now is moving the chains and scoring points. That was one of the better offenses last year and pretty much their whole offense is back this season, working in year 2 of Trestman regime. Of course let’s keep in mind that Chicago had a -33 point-differential last season while Buffalo was at -49. Buffalo played a tougher schedule though and their schedule-adjusted per game differential was -3.2 last year. Chicago’s was -4.1 actually. There are a lot of unknowns (as is with most NFL teams early in the year) but Bills could have some value as an underdog here, given the fact that they could have success moving the ball on this Chicago D.
Leans: BUF +6.5 & OVER 48
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IND @ DEN -7
O/U: 55
Season Totals:
Denver Broncos U 11.5 @ -137
Indianapolis Colts U 9.5 @ -134
This one opened at -7 and stayed there pretty much the whole summer as I’m assuming the betting is about 50/50 here. The interesting thing is that a Colts team that finished 11-5, won a playoff game, and is now returning some healthier players (Wayne, Allen), is listed at 9.5 for their season total with the UNDER being juiced up heavily. So basically, the bookmakers are expecting this to be a 9-7 team instead of a 10-6 playoff contender. With Luck entering his 3rd season, aren’t the Colts expected to improve even further while playing in a ‘weak’ division? Two years in a row Indianapolis finished 11-5 but both years they’ve over-performed. Their Pythagorean Wins (measured by points scored and allowed) was 7.2 in 2012 and 9.4 last year. In 2012, Luck led the Colts to a ton of one-score wins late in the 4th quarter, as Indianapolis played a very weak schedule and their 2 out of division games were against CLE and KCC (both wins), two of the worst teams in the AFC. If you’ll remember, Colts were the only team with a negative point differential (-30) to make the playoffs that year. Last season, Colts once again played a very easy schedule as Houston fell apart, Titans dealt with a ton of injuries, and Jags were the laughing-stock of the NFL for most of the season. Colts did have impressive wins against SEA, SF, and DEN, the team they’re facing in week 1. So what was the reason for Indy beating expectations by about 2 wins last season? Luck of course once again, AND their defense played much better (finished 16th) than in the previous 3 seasons where they ranked in the bottom-7 each time. Of course expecting a similar season from Robert Mathis is unrealistic. In the 4 seasons prior to last year he had 9.5, 11, 9.5, and 8.0 sacks respectively while averaging 43 combined tackles and 2.5 forced fumbles per year. Last season at 32 years old, he had 59 combined tackles, forced 8 fumbles, and registered career high 19.5 sacks. Regression is coming big time as he’s a year older, not to mention is also serving a 4-game suspension to start the season. Finally, since the Colts finished 1st in the division last year, their AFC out-of-division games will involve Denver and New England, as overall their schedule will be tougher. I have a hard time seeing this team finish better than 9-7 this year.
In any case, let’s focus on their game with Denver in week 1. Remember last season when Broncos came to Indy, Colts registered an improbable win, giving Denver its first loss of the season. So what exactly happened in that game? Mathis was an absolute monster, sacking Manning twice (Indy had 4 total), forcing a safety, and registering 4 of the 9 QB-hits for the game. He was a disruptive force in that game and an emotional spark-plug for the whole team (you could clearly sense he wanted to beat his old teammate). The secondary played really well also as Davis, Butler, and now departed Bethea had solid games. Overall, Denver lost 2 fumbles and Manning had an INT late (got hit on the arm on the throw) that pretty much sealed it for Indy. For the game, Denver averaged 5.9 YPP to Indy’s 4.7, 6.9 YPA vs Indy’s 5.3, and had 4 more 1st downs. Turnovers, sacks, and penalties cost them the game. Here’s what Peyton Manning had to say after: “I think if there is a next time it may be a little bit easier just because it was somewhat of an emotional week and it can be a little bit draining, I will say that.” Oh there will be Peyton, there will be “next time”. Clearly the emotional aspect was a big factor in last year’s game as it was Manning’s first game back ‘home’ after joining the Broncos. Well, Manning will get his wish for a rematch on Sunday Night of opening weekend. Last year in Indy, Denver was listed as a -6.5 point road favorite. This year at HOME, they are listed as a -7 point favorite. Hmmm. Mathis will not play in this game!!, Bathea is gone (with Colts not really addressing his replacement well in the off-season), Broncos will be better on the defensive end as they improved on that side of the ball in the offseason, and most importantly I expect Denver’s emotions to be in check here. Colts had an SRS (Simple Rating System which adjusts point differential for SOS) of +4.0, 5th best in the AFC. Broncos ended last year with an SRS of +11.4, or 7.4 points better. Even adjusting for home-field edge (about 3 points or so), you can see that Denver would be a steal at the current spread at home last season (though of course these are NOT the same teams!). This year I believe Denver is a better team than last season and it has nothing to do with their offense. The offense will continue to be great as Ryan Clady will return to his left-tackle spot (he was out for the season since week 2 last year), Sanders will replace Decker as a #2 WR, and Ball will take over for departed Moreno. The offense will regress in terms of cumulative stats (don’t expect the same # of yards + TD’s all you fantasy players out there), but in terms of overall efficiency I expect this team to be just as good. In addition, I don’t see Manning throwing as much as he did last season late in games and in second-halves of blowouts. Expect the run-game to be much improved this year with a more athletic Ball closing out games instead of Moreno. And the reason the run-game will have an even bigger role this season is due to an improved defense. Broncos signed Ware, Talib, and Ward, 3 huge difference-makers, this off-season. With Von Miller coming back from his ACL injury, and playing majority of the season (if not all 16 games), this will be a much better defensive unit with potential to be great. I think in week 1 we will see how big of a gap there still is between these two teams, and I expect a much different outcome than when they met in October of last season.
Leans: DEN -7 (Teaser?) & UNDER 55
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GB @ SEA -5
O/U: 46
Season Totals:
Seattle Seahawks O 11 @ -120
Green Bay Packers U 10.5 @ -143
Opener was -5.5 / 45, and has shifted a bit in Green Bay’s favor here though neither 5 nor 5.5 is a key number. Seattle went 8-1 ATS last season (playoffs included) when they were favorites at 7 points or less or a listed underdog, so you can see how much respect this Green Bay team is getting from the bookmakers here. Last year the Packers dealt with a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, so it’s really hard to look at their overall performance from 2013. When Rodgers was healthy though, Green Bay started out 5-2, with both losses coming on the road to two of the better teams in the league, @ SFG by 6 and @ CIN by 4. Packers then proceeded to go 2-5-1 after Rodgers went down. Upon his return, Green Bay beat the Bears in Chicago to make the playoffs and lost a close one to the Niners (23-20) in the playoffs. So if the Packers could go 6-3 with Rodgers in the lineup while losing by an average of only 4.3 points to SF (twice) and CIN, then that’s a pretty large accomplishment considering the myriad of other injuries this team has dealt with last year. Here are some notable players that missed time and/or played hurt last year besides Rodgers: Matthews, Cobb, Bulaga, Hayward, Perry, Burnett, Lacy, Kuhn, and others. These are all significant players and all of them should be healthy to start the 2014 season. So why will Green Bay have a shot @ Seattle in week 1? Well, the addition of Julius Peppers is big. This is the first time that Matthews will have another dynamic pass-rusher playing with him. Seattle’s biggest weakness is their O-line, which ranked 32nd in ASR% (Adjusted Sack Rate) last year. If Green Bay can get a consistent pass rush, they will have a chance to win the line-of-scrimmage battle and disrupt this Seattle offense. In addition, a healthier secondary will be able to make plays and potentially capitalize on mistakes created by the rush. Last season Green Bay ranked 31st defensively, but I expect this team’s D to improve significantly this season, especially given the fact that they were 8th just a year prior. On the offensive side, there are reasons to believe that the Packers will have more success than most expect. Yes, Seattle had a historically dominant defense last year, but unfortunately for them, there really is nowhere to go but down this year. You just cannot sustain that kind of HISTORICALLY dominant level of play year over year in the NFL, and regression is inevitable. I’m not saying that Seattle will now become a mediocre D, I’m just saying that they’ll have a hard time performing at the same efficiency-level as in 2013. If there was one silver-lining to Rodgers getting hurt last year, it was for the Packers to truly discover their running game behind Eddie Lacy. Green Bay ended the year having the 3rd most efficient run-game with their O-line ranking 5th in ALY (Adjusted Line Yards). Packers ranked 1st in Power%, 5th in Stuff%, 10th in 2nd-Level Yds, and 9th in Open-Field Yds. Both the O-line and Eddie Lacy (and other RB’s as well) showed how dominant this team can be running the ball, and that’s with Rodgers being out of action for 9 weeks. Imagine a healthy Aaron Rodgers and this newly-discovered Packers run-game, and there might not be a better offense in the NFL this season. A regressing Seattle D might have some trouble duplicating a similar performance against Green Bay in week 1, as they had against Denver in the Super Bowl. The Packers have now played San Fran 4 times and Seattle once over the last 2 years, and they’ve done better and better with time against these similarly-built NFC West top-dogs. The Packers team that will face Seattle on Thursday of opening week, will be the best Packers team in the last 3 years and I think we might see a hell of a game there. Based on the spread, I believe the bookmakers have a similar expectation.
Lean: GB +5
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TEN @ KCC -4.5
O/U: 43.5
Season Totals:
Kansas City Chiefs U 8.5 @ -194
Tennessee Titans O 7 @ -133
The odds opened at -5.5, went up to -6, and now have dropped down to -4.5. Obviously 6 is a key-number but the drop from 6 to 4.5 is the same as a drop from 6 to 5.5 or 6 to 5, as neither 5 nor 5.5 are key numbers anyways. Obviously if you like the Titans here, it’s best to lock in +4.5 in case this one moves down by another half-a-point or so. In any case, the bookmakers are projecting this KC team to win about 8 games based on the current “season-total number and juice”, while they’re projecting the Titans to fall in the 7-8 win range. Right away we can see that the bookmakers are valuing both of these teams closely together. So while the Titans were 7-9 last year with an SRS of -0.8, Chiefs ended the season at 11-5 with an SRS of +6.1, the second highest in the AFC. Clearly, the bookmakers expect the Titans to at least be a similar team to last season, while they’re expecting a strong decline for the Chiefs. The question we must answer is WHY? Well, the main reason is the strength of schedule (SOS). Last year, Chiefs played the 32nd ranked schedule, beating up on opponents like JAX, NYG, DAL, TEN, OAK, CLE, BUF, and WAS. This team went 10-0 against opponents with below-.500 records and only 1-6 against teams with a .500+ winning percentage. The one win was against the Eagles in week 3, when Philly had Vick starting and were still adjusting to Chip Kelly’s scheme. This year, KC will play DEN twice, SDC twice, NEP, SF, SEA, ARZ, MIA, NYJ, and PIT or 11 teams with a record of .500+ last season. They will also face TEN and STL, two teams with a 7-9 record last year. That’s 13 out of 16 games (besides OAK twice and BUF…on the road) against either average of way above average opponents. Their projected SOS this season is 2nd hardest. Now you can see why the U 8.5 season total is juiced up almost 2 to 1. Chiefs don’t have a dynamic QB, their receiving group is very mediocre, they’ve lost 3 starters from the O-line, their #1 ranked ST’s will most definitely regress, their defense will be without their best cornerback in Flowers, and they’re only an injury away (to either Hali, Houston, or Berry) from really having an overall mediocre D. Last year KC benefited from a +18 TO-differential (2nd best after Seattle’s +20), after being the 2nd worst team there with a -24 mark the year before. What are the chances of their D staying healthy all year long, playing a super tough schedule, and once again generating enough TO’s to help the team win TO-battles on a consistent basis? Highly unlikely. By comparison, the Titans are projected to play the 31st toughest schedule this year (2nd easiest). With Whisenhunt coming on as the head-coach you can expect this offense to improve this season from their 16th ranking last year. Remember, only a season ago Whisenhunt transformed San Diego from the 31st ranked offense to 5th overall based on yardage, so he’s known to turn things around offensively. Locker isn’t Phillip Rivers of course, but at least he’ll have plenty of weapons to work with: Hunter, Wright, Washington, Walker, Sankey, and McCluster. The Titans have also once again invested in their O-line by signing Michael Oher and drafting Taylor Lewin in the first round this year. The biggest question mark is Jake Locker, a guy with superior athleticism, rocket arm, but limited accuracy. Of course that last characteristic is what is most important to a quality NFL player. If Whisenhunt can improve Locker’s accuracy and develop him as an NFL QB, then the Titans could be a very dangerous offensive team. Defensively, this team should be pretty strong up front with their front-7, while their secondary will be their biggest weakness. McCourty is a solid corner, but losing Alterraun Verner in the off-season will hurt as he was probably their best defender in the secondary. Of course in week 1 against the Chiefs, this defensive deficiency might not be as visible, since the Chiefs have one of the worst receiving groups in the NFL. To make matters worse for them, Dwayne Bowe will not suit up for that one due to a suspension.
So can the Titans be competitive in week 1 against the Chiefs? I think they most definitely can and honestly I think they can win this game. Last season the two teams met in Tennessee actually. It was a 26-17 Chiefs victory, but the score doesn’t do justice how close the game actually was. Chiefs scored the first 7 points on ST’s due to a muffed punt reception by the Titans. They then stopped the Titans 4 times from the 1st and Goal from the 1 yard-line late in the second half while driving for a FG after that turnover (10 point swing). The Titans fought back and reclaimed a 17-13 lead early in the 4th quarter, only to have 2 INT’s in the final 6.5 minutes of the game (both off deflections), 2 subsequent FG’s by the Chiefs, and a missed gimme 32-yarder by the Titans. A lot of unusual things (ST touchdown, 2 INTs off deflections late, 4 tries from 1st and Goal leading to a turnover, and a missed easy FG) happened in the game, which the Titans lost by 9 points. The Chiefs were only 1 for 12 on 3rd downs in that one, had a 5.3 YPP average which was pretty much on par with Titan’s 5.1, and overall both teams looked fairly similar to one another. It’s also important to mention that the starting quarterback for the Titans was Ryan Fitzpatrick, as Locker sat out the game with a hip injury. The Chiefs were -2 road favorites in that game, and if both teams were the SAME, you’d expect them to be about -8 or so at home after the adjustments. Well, they’re only -4.5 as of today, which is a clear sign that these teams are much closer in quality than some might believe. Locker will start this game, Chiefs are expected to regress this season, and of course if the game has fewer ‘unusual’ outcomes compared to last year’s meeting, then I would expect a very close game here providing a lot of value for the points.
Lean: TEN +4.5 and UNDER 43.5
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SD @ ARZ -3.5
O/U: 44.5
Season Totals:
Arizona Cardinals O 7.5 @ -138
San Diego Chargers O 8 @ -152
Well, this is interesting, are the bookmakers telling us that the Chargers are the BETTER team of the two based on the O/U season totals and juice? (both have the OVER juiced up heavily). Or maybe the teams are similar in terms of quality, and the difference in 0.5 of a game for the Chargers is due to them having a projected 19th hardest schedule, while Arizona’s is 6th hardest? Regardless of what it is, if we have similarly ranked teams, anything over a FG provides value and Chargers at +3.5 seems to be the right side here. Let’s break down these teams to see if that’s truly the case. Arizona finished 10-6 last year in the hardest division in the NFL, and of course they failed to make the postseason. They had the 5th best SRS rating of +6.4 in the NFC and the 7th best in the NFL, yet still weren’t able to get into the post-season. So why are the bookmakers only expecting about 7-8 wins for this squad? Well, the #2 ranked defense is expected to regress a great deal. Karlos Dansby left via free-agency, Daryl Washington is suspended for a full year, Tyrann Mathieu is trying to come back from a torn ACL suffered in week 14, John Abraham (who is 36 years old by the way) reported to training camp 3-weeks late after spending time in a rehab facility following his DUI arrest in June, and of course Darnell Dockett, who is coming off his best season in 5 years, was lost for the year with a torn ACL in training camp. That’s a lot of key players that either will not contribute this year or are coming in with major question marks. And to make matters worse, Arizona has the 2nd oldest defense in the league, so the replacement players taking over some of these positions aren’t “spring chickens” so to say. I just don’t see Arizona’s D being as good as last season when they carried the team. At the same time, the offense should improve. Fitz, Floyd, and B&B (Brown and Brown…their two rookies) provide a great group of receivers, the O-line should get better with the return of 1st round pick Cooper (missed all of last year with a broken leg), and of course Ellington has the potential to be a star at the RB position. Carson Palmer is going to be 35 this year though, and hard to see him be one of those QB’s that gets ‘better’ with age. Arizona plays a very tough schedule so it’s not a surprise that the bookmakers expect this team to take a step back. The Chargers on the other hand are pretty much the opposite of the Cardinals, as San Diego had a great offense (#2 overall) and the worst defense in the league. You can expect the offense to continue being terrific as they’re returning pretty much every starter and key backups like Green and Woodhead. And the defense, well you can’t get much worse than 32nd so clearly they’re expected to improve. Freeney will play more (he only appeared in 4 games last year) providing a much needed pass-rush, Manti Te’o will get better in his 2nd year in the league (unless he falls in LOVE again), and to improve their secondary, the Chargers drafted Verrett in the first round while most importantly signing Brandon Flower, one of KC’s better CB’s over the last few years. With this be a dominant defense? Of course not, but they could approach league-average, especially given the fact that San Diego plays 19th toughest schedule this year. I think overall this Chargers team improved more and will be the ‘better’ team this year than ‘Zona. Arizona will take a big step back on the defensive side of the ball, and I’m not sure how much better they’ll be offensively due to Palmer’s stagnant performance over the last few seasons. In the last few years, San Diego is 6-1 ATS when listed as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 range and they’re 3-1 ATS on MNF. I expect the Chargers to take advantage of this Arizona defense that is going through some major changes and which most likely have a lot of rust early in the year. Grabbing the Chargers at anything over a FG provides pure value from my perspective.
Lean: SD +3.5 and OVER 44.5
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NO @ ATL +2.5/+3
O/U: 51.5
Season Totals:
Atlanta Falcons U 8.5 @ -173
New Orleans Saints O 9.5 @ -200
This line opened at -1.5 Atlanta, jumped to +1.5 ATL around August 17th, and then crept up to +2.5 (+100) or +3 (-120) depending on the book. That’s a line-move of about 4-4.5 points which is huge during the regular season, but maybe isn’t as big of a deal in the off-season. Based on the ‘juice’, the season-totals indicate that bookmakers are projecting the Falcons to be an 8-8 team and the Saints to be a 10-6 squad. Clearly New Orleans is a ‘better’ team coming into this season. So should we just back the ‘better’ team in this matchup and move on, hoping for a 3-point Saints win on the road (assuming we get -2.5 NO)? Last year the Saints were -3.5 point home favorites on 09/08 (opening weekend), winning by 6 points. They then proceeded to be listed at -7.5 on the road in the rematch, when it was clear that Atlanta was an inferior team, winning that one by 4. Now they’re at -2.5/-3 for the 2014 opening weekend. Hmmm…seem a bit over-valued all of a sudden. Last season the Saints ended the year as the 7th best team based on Efficiency ratings, while Atlanta was 27th. Based on SRS, Saints were +8.8 last year (6th best mark in the league), while Atlanta was at -2.8. New Orleans ended the year as the 5th best offense (shocker!), while Atlanta was #14, though of course with a healthy Julio Jones, Roddy White (missed games and played hurt), Steven Jackson, Harry Douglass, and an improved O-line (drafted Jake Matthews / signed Jon Asamoah) you have to believe that ATL’s offense will improve. Keep in mind though that the O-line is being overhauled so the cohesion factor might not be there. They also played the 2nd toughest schedule last year and with easier schedule this season (#14 SOS) you can assume Atlanta’s offense to be an improved unit, though age (White, Jackson) and durability (Douglass, Baker) are a concern. So both teams will be very good offensively, so the question then becomes which team will have a better D? Not sure if a lot of people know this but the Saints actually ended last year as the 10th best defense. They ranked 6th against the pass (much more important) and 20th against the run (less important), ranked 4th in ASR% @ 8.6%, and 14th in ALY (Adjusted Line Yards) allowed. Saints struggled in the open-field, ranking 30th defensively in Open-Field Yds, but they’ve addressed this in the offseason. The Saints signed Jarius Byrd, a 3-time Pro Bowler. Besides Byrd, the Saints will have most of their starters and key backups back as well. With an aggressive scheme from Rob Ryan and overall continuity on that side of the ball, expect the Saints defense to be just as good if not better this year. Not sure the same could be said for the Falcons. Atlanta’s D ranked 29th overall last year, 32 against the pass, and 25th against the run. They ranked 32nd in ASR% @ 5.3% and 27th in ALY @ 4.3. They brought in a couple of D-Tackles in the off-season but didn’t really address the pass-rush. Osi Umenyiora is 34 years old and is a part-time player at this point of his career, and the other DE’s (Massaquoi and Goodman) combined for only 4.0 sacks last year. The biggest blow to this defense was of course the season-ending Achilles injury to Sean Weatherspoon in the OTA’s. This leaves the Falcons with Worrilow and Bartu, two undrafted rookies in 2013 who started a number of games last year, which is part of the reason why ATL ranked so poorly defensively. They’re back!! Oh and I forgot to mention that Atlanta is moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 D this year. A lot of young players, devastating loss to their best defender in the off-season, and a switch in defensive philosophy – this seems to me like another year of ‘growing pains’ on the defense side for the Falcons. Breaking down these two teams, I think it’s pretty clear that the Saints are a better team, especially early in the year. The line movement is probably an indication of that. But of course you have to consider the fact that Atlanta is healthy offensively, this is a divisional game, and most importantly the game is in Atlanta, where the Falcons are 2-0 ATS against the Saints in the last two years. Home-field has been crucial in this rivalry over the years and in week 1 of the season, when we don’t know as much about these teams as we all ‘think’ we do (especially myself), grabbing points at home is a strong ‘value’ play. Besides, do you guys know who is returning kicks for Atlanta this year?!? My boy D-Hest (I’m a Bears fan) of course and all it takes is “one” to make a huge impact on the outcome of the game.
Lean: ATL +3 and UNDER 51.5
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NE @ MIA +4.5
O/U: 47
Season Totals:
Miami Dolphins U 8 @ -159
New England Patriots O 10.5 @ -154
This one opened up at +3.5 MIA, then at the end of August moved to +4 and now sits at +4.5. Last season the Patriots won this matchup by 10 at home as a -6 home favorite, Gronk’s 2nd game back from his injury. He didn’t play in the rematch @ Miami, where the Dolphins were the listed -2.5 home favorites, a game Miami won by 4. Now Miami is at +4.5, a difference of 6 full points from the spread last year. Everyone knows the importance of Gronkowski to this New England offense, so everyone will be paying close attention to his practices this week. If he’s fully healthy, watch out, as this Pats offense will be very explosive. If he’s not, then you should still watch-out (more on this later). Of course there could be a lot of value on the Dolphins here, considering the fact that you’re crossing two key numbers of 3 and 4, betting on a home-dog. Take a look at some of New England’s games last year: 23-21 win vs BUF, 13-10 win vs NYJ, 30-23 win vs ATL, 13-6 loss to CIN, 30-27 win vs NO on a sick Brady TD pass with 5 seconds left in the game, 30-27 OT loss to NYJ in Gronk’s first game back, 24-20 loss to CAR, 34-31 OT win vs DEN a game they had no business of winning, 34-31 win against a 2-14 Houston team, 27-26 win against a bad Cleveland team (keep in mind the last 5 games I’ve listed all came with Gronk in the lineup), 24-20 loss to Miami. New England had some blowouts of course last year as well, but a lot of their games were very close contests and what’s interesting is that a lot of those came against some of the worst teams in the league last season (BUF, ATL, HOU, CLE). Of course it’s also important to note that last season was a very strange one. Brady was working without Gronk and Vereen for most of the year and with a number of very young and raw receivers. Ridley developed ‘fumbleitis’ once again. And on the defensive side of the ball, New England lost Wilfork, Kelly, and Mayo to season ending injuries in October, and it all went downhill defensively after that. Of course by the 2nd half of the season, when Brady became more and more familiar with his receivers, the offense was performing at a top-level, even after Gronk went down for good early in week 14. I would expect the Pats to go back to being a dominant offensive force in 2014, as I don’t believe that we’re going to see a drastic decline from Brady as some are predicting. Injuries to Vereen, Gronk, and Amendola, in addition to young/raw receivers is what contributed to Brady’s struggles early last year, not physical decline due to age. On the defensive side, we might see a very strong unit this year. Wilfork and Mayo are back (Kelly was released) and the Pats signed Revis (remember him? The best CB in the league only a few years back) and Browner (though he will miss the 4 games due to a suspension) to shore up their secondary, a weak spot for them last few years. I think Belichick decided to stop drafting young CB’s (he’s been failing miserably there) and opted to just sign proven commodities instead. There’s no doubt in my mind that if any team is going to challenge Denver in the AFC, it will be the Pats, especially if their defense develops into a top-10 unit this season. As for the Dolphins, they come into this season with a completely rebuilt O-line (except Pouncey but he’s missing early part of the season after a hip surgery in June) after allowing 58 sacks, ranking 30th in ASR%. Albert was a big signing as he’s been a very good player for the last few years, but we’ll see how the line as a whole gels, as typically you need some time for cohesion to develop. Miami ranked 18th in the run-game and 20th in the pass-game last year, so offensively this team was pretty bland. With a new offensive coordinator in Lazor, you’d expect this group to become better as the season goes along but early on there could be some rust. Honestly, there’s nothing that is very impressive about this Miami offense. Their RB’s are soft, their WR’s are mediocre, and Tannehill reminds me of another Sam Bradford, good QB size but pretty mediocre play, ranking ‘average’ in QBR (48) and with a 6.7 YPA average over his first 2 seasons (Bradford is at 6.3 for his career). Defensively this team ranked 18th last year and I’m not sure they can get much better than that. Wake is a stud, but besides him there really isn’t much else here. Jordan (their 3rd overall pick in 2013) is already suspended for 4 games for PED use. Miami’s linebackers are a bunch of no-name guys, and their secondary contains players like Delmas, Finnegan, and Grimes, guys who all carry a lot of question marks (injuries + performance). I have a hard time seeing much improvement form this Miami D, as I think they’ll probably get a little worse this year.
As far as the week 1 matchup is concerned, I really want to find a way to back Miami at +4.5 at home and it is hard to do. We don’t know how well the O-line will play together, we can’t assume that Moreno will have similar production to last season, Tannehill really didn’t make a major jump from his 1st to his 2nd year, and this D doesn’t really instill much fear. Of course it’s important to remember, that this is week 1 and though there are a lot of “question marks” with the Dolphins, our perception of them is based off last season. Backing road favorites is a bad proposition in the NFL, even more so this early in the season when we haven’t seen the teams play yet. But I just think there’s a huge gap between these two teams. New England finished with a +5.9 SRS last year, and I expect them to improve on that mark and reach the double-digits (Denver was +11.4). Miami ended last year with a -0.8 SRS, and I don’t see them being much better than that. Imagine Denver coming to visit the Dolphins, would you back DEN -4.5 in this spot? I’m not saying Pats will be as good as Denver per say, but they will be close this year. Of course Denver is NOT a divisional opponent, while New England is, so the familiarity-factor is higher. Miami offers solid odds-value, but I’ll lean with a team that I think will be one of the better ones in the league.
Lean: NE -4.5 and UNDER 47
===========================
JAX @ PHI -10
O/U: 53
Season Totals:
Philadelphia Eagles O 9 @ -124
Jacksonville Jaguars O 4.5 @ -225
Wow, a double-digit spread in the first week of the season? This one opened -11 Philly actually and dropped to -10.5, then to -10 over the last few weeks. The total crept up from 52 (opener) to 53 now. To look at this matchup you have to consider the fact that Philly improved as the year went on in 2013, as their players were adjusting to Chip Kelly’s system. This team was 1-3 to start out the year and 3-5 at one point prior to going on a 7-1 run to get into the playoffs. Of course we have to be careful because Philly played an extremely weak schedule (29th SOS) and only beat 1 playoff team all year long: Green Bay Packers, who were playing without Rodgers (Tolzien started) in that one. Actually, Philly did beat a 10-6 Arizona team by 3 points at home, and although the Cardinals didn’t make the playoffs, they were good enough to be considered a ‘playoff team’ last season. So did Philly make the post-season because their players adjusted to Kelly’s system or was it because they played a cupcake schedule? Probably both. The offense of course is very good though the loss of DeSean Jackson will be something to monitor. Eagles don’t have a guy on the roster that can stretch defenses vertically the way Jackson could. Plus there’s no way that Foles will finish another year with fewer than even 10 INT’s in my opinion. He had a number of bad throws last year that were flat out dropped by the opposing defenders, and his 2 INT’s from 2013 is fluky. Still, Kelly’s offenses overall are excellent at protecting the ball so we can expect Foles’ INT numbers to be below average. Maclin will step in for Jackson, and though he’s not a burner, he’s a very good receiver with a bigger body. The offense should be fine. Defensively, Eagles will rely on their young players to improve YoY as they failed to make any big splash in free-agency (they did sign FS Malcolm Jenkins, but he’s not that impressive of a player). And let’s remember, this was the 23rd overall ranked D based on DefEff ratings, though they did rank 15th overall when the 2nd half of the year was weighted more. So clearly it’s an ‘improving’ unit, but asking them to be a top-10 Unit this year is probably a bit too ambitious. That’s where the Jags can take advantage off, if they want to pull off an upset. This year, Jacksonville is finally moving on from the Gabbert-era (thank God!). Last season he averaged 4.2 adj-PY/A, 49% completion-%, and 1 TD to 7 INT’s. QB’s entering their 3rd seasons should NOT play this poorly and of course his NFL-career is all but over. Henne provides JAX with a veteran QB, they added two rookie WR’s in 2nd and 3rd rounds, signed a bulldozing RB in Gerhart, and of course their O-line had a makeover and hopefully plays much better than the unit last year that ranked 32nd in run-blocking and 24th in pass-protection. As the offense is expected to get better (can’t get much worse than #32), so should Jacksonville’s 28th ranked defense. Remember, Gus Bradley is a former Seattle D-Coordinator, so defense is his forte. Though he was stuck with very minimal talent on D last year, his players (especially the young ones) showed improvement as the season went on. These guys should take another step forward this year, and of course signing Seattle’s cast-offs (Red Bryant, Clemons) should provide some strong veteran leadership and instill the ‘Seattle’ culture. The most important take-away though is that out of all the NFL teams last year, Jacksonville showed some of the most drastic improvements in the 2nd half of last season compared to the 1st half. This is a team that went 4-4 after their BYE-Week, with 2 of the 4 losses being by a TD or less. They also were 4-4 ATS on the road last year, while Eagles were only 3-5 ATS at home. Laying DD-points is a lot, especially on opening weekend when there’s a lot more question marks than answers with most teams. Win or lose, this is the NFL, and the smart play in week 1 is probably (almost) always to grab this many points. As far as the total is concerned, in their final 8 games last season, Jacksonville averaged 17 PPG offensively. Let’s say this team improves this year to average about 20-21 PPG, that means that Philly is expected to score about 31-33 points in this game to hit the total. Philly averaged about 27 PPG last year. The O/U of about 48-49 seems a more accurate number to me here, so I believe there’s value on the UNDER.
Lean: JAX +10 and UNDER 53
===========================
OAK @ NYJ -5
O/U: 39.5
Season Totals:
New York Jets O 7 @ -148
Oakland Raiders O 4.5 @ -170
This line has fluctuated between -4.5 and -5 pretty much the whole off-season. The bookmakers are expecting the Jets to be a 7/8 win team this year. Last season they finished 8-8 but what is interesting is that their Pythagorean Wins number was 5.4, 6th worst mark in the league. Typically when you see such a drastic difference between actual wins (8) and expected wins (5.4), you can expect a decline the following season (this 2.6 difference was the largest in the league). Here’s another data-point for you to digest. The 2-14 Texans team had a SRS of -7.6 last season. The 8-8 Jets were ranked just above them in the AFC @ -6.1. For comparison, the Raiders were the 3rd worst team in the league based on SRS @ -8.0 last year. Last season, the Jets beat the Raiders at home by 10 points in a game where the defenses decided to take a day off (37-27 Jets). NYJ were listed as -3 point home favorites in that one. That of course was with McGloin and Pryor throwing passes for the Raiders, and Marcel Reece being the primary runner. Now, in the first game of this season, the rematch is set 2-points higher at -5 NYJ. Our job is to figure out if this is justified. Let’s start with the Jets as clearly their 8-8 record wasn’t very reflective of this team’s true quality last season. Jets went 5-1 in games decided by 7-points or less and typically that normalizes closer to 50/50 over a course of a season or two (Hint. Hint.) That means they went 3-7 in games that were blowouts (8+ point differential), and of course Jets got blown out more often than not. Their average loss was by almost 19 PPG, the highest mark in the league. Some of that has probably to do with the team not trying as hard in some of their blowout losses, though to the Jets’ and Rex Ryan’s credit, they were one of the better ‘bounce-back’ teams in the league, going 6-2 last season after a loss (Are they a team to keep an eye on following a LOSS this season?). Remember, Pythagorean Wins just looks at the point differential for a team, so of course the huge number of blowout losses had a big impact on that 5.4 number. Overall the Jets were probably a better team than that, though not as good as their 8-8 record indicates, a 6-10 or 7-9 type of a squad. So what to expect from them this year? The offense signed Decker and Chris Johnson. Decker will most definitely improve the offense, especially with the team finally releasing a disappointing Stephen Hill. But Chris Johnson signing won’t do much if anything. He spent last year averaging 3.8 RY/A and complaining about his O-line. Interestingly, Tennessee’s O-line actually ranked as one of the better run-blocking units in the league. CJzeroK is a selfish player who has made himself millions upon millions off only a few good years in the league. In any case, Jets’ O-line should improve a bit, as they ranked 27th in ASR% last year, though a lot of that had to do with Geno Smith and him just being a rookie. Speaking of Smith, the real improvement of this 27th ranked offense starts and ends with him. If he continues to develop in his 2nd year, Jets will be much better offensively. If he doesn’t, then this team will crash and burn very quickly, as 6 of their first 7 opponents (@ GB, CHI, DET, @ SD, DEN, @ NE) are all playoff-contenders and 3 of those are Super Bowl Contenders (@ GB, DEN, @ NE). As far as the defense goes, the Jets were the 2nd best D against the run last year, but ranked only 17th against the pass. (Which one is more important in today’s NFL?) Part of the problem is that their defense ranked only 24th in ASR%, combined with mediocre CB play (remember, Revis-Island shifted south, and then up north…must be some strong earthquakes going on near the Atlantic Ocean). I don’t have to tell you what a disaster this Jets CB group could be in week 1. Dimitri Patterson, the player they signed to replace Antonio Cromartie (who was horrendous last year by the way), was finally released this past Saturday after a drama-filled week where he and the organization went toe-to-toe over his absence from a pre-season game and unspecified reasons as to why. The second starter, NY’s #1 (9th overall) pick last year Dee Milliner, is dealing with a high-ankle sprain and most likely won’t’ be available this week. Jets might be forced to start an UDFA (Walls) at one spot and a converted safety (Allen) in the other. Derek Carr could have a strong start to his NFL career. Overall, I think this Jets D will continue having problems defending the pass this year, especially since they’ll have a rookie safety in the starting lineup to go along with young, unproven corners. So the question becomes, can the Raiders take advantage of NY’s weaknesses? Derek Carr is coming off a 5000+ yards / 50 TD senior-season at Fresno State. The kid is a rookie but is Oakland’s best QB, and against a weak Jets secondary he has a chance to play really well. James Jones and Maurice Jones Drew will provide the Raiders’ offense with a few more weapons and as long as the revamped O-line holds up (remember Jets aren’t a very good pass-rushing team) Oakland’s offense could have success here. Defensively, is where the Raiders are expected to show the most improvement this season. Tuck, Smith, and Woodley were brought in to shore up the D-line and provide a much needed pass-rush, while the selection of Khalil Mack might have given the Raiders the most complete player in this year’s draft-class. Brown and Rogers will provide some veteran leadership at CB while the return of Branch (played in only a few games last year) to the strong-safety spot will be the biggest improvement in the secondary. Don’t get me wrong, the Raiders will still be one of the weaker teams in the league this year (especially since they have the #1 toughest projected schedule), but they should be better than last season. Revisiting this -5 NYJ spread for week one, I want to again bring up the fact that in December of last season, the Jets were -3 point favorites at home against this Oakland team. But in this rematch, the Raiders are the ones that have added way more new pieces to their team, and will be looking drastically different (and assuming better) than last season. I’m not sure this 2-point increase is justified here. I know Oakland is playing on the East Cost in the 1PM EST time-slot (though not sure if that has as big of an effect in Week 1 as later on in the season), but that was the case last year also and this Raiders team led by McGloin and Pryor averaged 5.9 YPP, almost the same as NYJ’s 6.1 YPP in that one. This game is expected to be very low-scoring and I think points could definitely come into play. I just wish there a few more points on the Raiders in this one, like 2/2.5 more to make this one a little more appealing.
Lean: OAK +5 (Teaser?)
=======================
CLE @ PIT -6
O/U: 41
Season Totals:
Pittsburgh Steelers O 8.5 @ -155
Cleveland Browns 6.5 @ -110
This one opened at -5 PIT and jumped to -6 in the last few weeks. The total shifted from 40 to 41 in the last few days. Now if you are reading this, I want to you just sit back, close your eyes, and think about this Cleveland Browns team. What do you see? A team that finished 4-12 last year. A team that lost their best offensive weapon, Josh Gordon, for the season due to a suspension, and their offensive coordinator Norv Turner due to another job opening. A team whose QB’s struggled mightily in the pre-season. A team that most everyone is expecting to pretty much suck, right? The public’s perception of the Cleveland Browns isn’t very positive. A lot of that has to do with the fact that the Browns have been featured on National TV a ton during this preseason, on ESPN almost nightly, in the newspapers/websites/TMZ/etc., and of course the ‘talking heads’ won’t stop…..well, ‘talking’ about them of course. And yes, it’s all because of Johnny Manziel, the most polarizing player in the league right now; though he hasn’t even thrown one NFL pass in a regular season. Our perception of this Browns team has been shaped for us already and I think majority of the people are expecting a really bad year for the team. You can open your eyes now. Let’s take a step back and look at this team objectively, using the bookmakers as a guide. Last year on 11/24 @ Cleveland, Browns were listed as -2.5 point home favorites against this Steelers team in their first meeting. That would translate to about a +4.5 (3-point adjustment for H/A each way) spread on the road @ PIT. Browns had Jason Campbell as a starting QB with Josh Gordon in the lineup of course. The rematch was in week 17 @ Pittsburgh, where Campbell got the start again and the rushing attack was led by Edwin Baker (who?!?). Steelers beat the lifeless Browns 20 - 7 who were a +9.5 road-underdog. Similar thing happened in 2012 as well, though Cleveland won the first meeting that year as a +1 home underdog and then lost the week 17 rematch 24 - 10 as a +10 point underdog @ PIT (Weeden and Thad Lewis were QB’s that game). So now with our perception of the Browns shot, and with Steelers finishing on the high-note in 2013 (6-2 to end the year and almost making the playoffs), we get Pittsburgh listed at -10 at home right? Well, not exactly. They’re listed as a favorite at less than a TD at home, and that’s after dominating this series since Roethlisberger became their QB. What else is interesting is that after going 4-12 last year, losing Gordon for a full year, and displaying terrible QB play in the preseason (have I mentioned yet that pre-season historically has virtually ZERO correlation with the regular season?) the bookmakers have Browns listed at a solid 6.5 wins for the regular season, pretty much the only season-total that isn’t juiced up one way or another. So the bookmakers are expecting a 2-3 game improvement from this Browns squad over their finish last year. So what gives? Cleveland hired Pettine to be their head-coach this year, after firing Chudzinski after one year at the helm. Pettine is known for his defense, leading the Jets D under Ryan’s tutelage for 3 years prior to taking over the Bills’ D last season. He improved Buffalo’s defense from 27th overall to 4th last year, so his history bodes well for this Cleveland team that’s been trying to improve defensively for years. Cleveland has the ‘perception’ of being a good defense but they’ve finished ranking 22nd or worse for 3 straight years, ending up 24th last season. If anyone can improve this unit it’s Pettine. On the offensive side, Kyle Shanahan was brought in and he’ll utilize the zone-blocking scheme in the run game. Ben Tate was signed in the off-season and he’s very familiar with the scheme as Houston ran it for years. Without Gordon, the passing game will suffer a great deal. Burleson has been released so the top-2 wide outs are Miles Austin (seemed washed up last year at Dallas) and Andrew Hawkins, a 180-lb ‘short-stack’. Cameron Jordan will have to step-up his game, though he fell off greatly in the 2nd half of last season with defenses paying more attention to him. Without Gordon in there and without Manziel’s improvisation ability, this has the makings of a very bad offense. Defensively, well, this has been a bad defense for years and that’s with an over-rated Haden as their top cornerback. Cleveland drafted Gilbert with their first round-1 pick but rookie CB’s tend to struggle in their first year as it takes time to develop at the position. Their top-2 signings in the off-season were Dansby (33-year old LB coming off a career year) and Whitner (a bit of a downgrade from TJ Ward who left for Denver). It’s going to be difficult for the Browns to win more than 6 games this year, even though they are playing one of the weakest schedules in the league. But you know who is playing an even weaker schedule? That’s Pittsburgh, and primarily due to the fact that they’ll face Cleveland twice this year. Pittsburgh’s 6-2 finish to last year can’t be disregarded. This is a team with a dominant QB in Roethlisberger, solid receiving options (Brown, Wheaton, Miller – 2 years removed from his ACL injury), two strong running-backs in Bell and Blount, and a healthier O-line with Pouncey returning (out for the year in week 1 in 2013). This will be a good offense and a much better offense than Cleveland’s. The question is on the defensive end, where Pittsburgh finished a mediocre 20th last season (19th against the pass and 21st against the run). They will go younger this year and have a number of athletic, every-down linebackers as starters. Polamalu is coming off a season where he did NOT miss any games which is a rarity, so I doubt that happens again. Of course he’ll play in week 1 but after that, all bets are off. Honestly, I don’t think this D will be much worse than last season when they allowed a ton of big-plays and struggled against the ‘better’ QB’s / offenses in the league (40 pts to the Bears, 55 pts to the Patriots, 37 points to Detroit, 38 points to the Packers with no Rodgers, but Lacy dominating the game). Cleveland is NOT it and will probably be one of the worst offenses in the league this year. That gives Pittsburgh a huge advantage on that side of the ball. Honestly, the more I think about this one, the more it seems that the spread should at least be a TD in the game. Then I open my eyes again and see that the bookmakers have it at a solid -6. Oh crap, just as I finished writing this analysis, it just crept up to -6.5. Hmmm…
Lean: PIT -6 (or -6.5 I guess….Teaser?)
==================================
WAS @ HOU -2.5/-3
O/U: 45
Season Totals:
Houston Texans O 7.5 @ -159
Washington Redskins 7.5 @ -110
Based on SRS, can you guess who the 2nd worst team in the league was last year after the Jags and their -11.1 mark? No it, wasn’t the Raiders (-8.0), nor the Browns (-7.7), and not even the Texans (-7.6). It was the Washington Redskins who had the SRS of -9.3. Basically, the Texans were about 1.7 points per game better than Washington in 2013. This year, the bookmakers are expecting Houston to win 8 games, while Washington is at a solid 7.5. Houston’s Pythagorean wins was at 4.2, or +2.2 higher than the actual record, the highest mark in the league. Washington’s was at 4.8, or +1.8 higher than their actual record, the 2nd highest in the league. So why are the bookmakers expecting both to improve greatly this year? Well, Houston is coming into the season with the easiest schedule in the league. They are also expected to regress to the mean in terms of turnover-differential, which they led the league at minus-20 last year. Of course when you DON’T have weak-armed Schaub throwing passes, you most definitely have a chance to improve. Then again, you have a weak-armed Fitzpatrick at the helm now, so clearly hoping for a SuperBowl this year is a mistake. Fitzpatrick will be better though (can’t get much worse than Schaub..well, unless your last name is Gaebbert), he has two strong receivers in Johnson and Hopkins to throw to, O-line will be healthier, and Foster is back as well. On the defensive side, you can expect Jonathan Joseph to have a healthier year (was injured throughout 2013), JJ Watt to dominate, and of course for Clowney to start leaving his mark on this league. A similar situation is happening in Washington as well, where RGIII is finally healthy, they’ve added DeSean Jackson to the squad, Josh Reed is healthy, and the defense should improve a bit as well. The question is which of these two teams will be better? That’s hard to say but as of right now, I’d lean to Houston. All reports out in the off-season indicate that RGIII is struggling to pick up a pro-style offense where he’s required to throw from the pocket, instead of utilizing his legs as much. In addition, he still doesn’t know what it means to ‘slide’ at the NFL level, as I saw him take unneeded punishment in one of the pre-season games. Defensively, Washington doesn’t have the talent level of Houston’s top-3 guys (Watt, Clowney, Joseph), so you have to give the edge to the Texans there as well. The spread indicates two fairly ‘even’ teams here, with -2.5/-3 due to home-field edge. I agree, as this one is fairly tough to call from the side-standpoint. I believe both teams will improve defensively quicker than on the offensive end, so UNDER could be worth a look here, though remember, early in the year there’s really not much data or visuals to go by.
Lean: UNDER 45
=====================
CIN @ BAL -1.5
O/U: 43
Season Totals:
Baltimore Ravens 8.5 @ -110
Cincinnati Bengals U 9 @ -120
This one opened at -2.5 BAL and then shifted to -1.5 over the last few days. It’s important to recognize that this is a divisional battle where each team is very familiar with one another. At the same time, everyone knows that Cincy was one of the ‘better’ teams in the AFC last year while Ravens were one of the worst. But even so, a 3-5 Ravens team (wins against CLE, HOU, and MIA) took on a 6-3 Cincy team last year and were listed as -2 point home favorites (Ravens won by 3 in OT, though Cincy needed a Hail-Mary TD as time expired just to send the game there). Today, the Ravens are -1.5, but is that under-valued? Cincy is coming into the year having to replace BOTH of their coordinators, with Geno Atkins and Leon Hall coming off serious season-ending injuries, and with Andy Dalton being finally paid like a ‘star’ QB that he is not. This team made the playoffs 3 straight years, but failed to win even one game, so the expectations are really high. As good of a year as Cincy had, they ranked 17th offensively (4th straight year they ranked 17th there) and 5th defensively, their best mark in the last 5 years. Hard to imagine this team improving much on their offensive ranking, but defensively you have to believe that there will be some regression coming. The players are getting older, their top-2 guys are off serious injuries, and of course Zimmer was a beloved D-coordinator whose impact was absolutely huge. Offensively I’m not sure Cincy will improve much. Dalton is a pretty mediocre QB and Cincy already went into this season committing to the power-run game. By comparison, I think Baltimore has nowhere to go but up. Their D ranked 7th overall last season, and this year both Webb and Suggs will be 2 years removed from devastating injuries they suffered in 2012. In addition, Baltimore again drafted defensive players with their early round picks, similar approach to their strategy last season. This defense will be just as strong if not better. Offensively, there’s nowhere to go but up from their 30th rank last year. There were a number of problems for Baltimore last season. Pitta missed a significant portion of the season and Boldin was traded to the 49ers, basically leaving Flacco without his outlet possession-receivers. This year, Ravens signed Steve Smith, and though he’s way past his prime, he’s a possession receiver that Flacco desperately needs. In addition Pitta is healthy now. Both Torrey Smith and Marlon Brown provide excellent vertical threats and you have the makings of a solid receiving group that fits well with Flacco’s strengths. As far as the run-game, it was absolutely horrendous last year ranking 31st overall. The O-line was horrible ranking 32nd in ALY and both Rice and Pierce underperformed greatly. Enter in Gary Kubiak, a running-game wizard who is improving a zone-blocking scheme in Baltimore. The reason he’s “improving” it is because the Ravens tried more zone-blocking last year, which is partly the reason for their horrific display running the ball. With Kubiak running the offense and with healthier personnel there, you can expect the Ravens to improve offensively to at least league-average. Overall, I think we’ll see this Baltimore team progress a lot this year, especially on the offensive side. By comparison, Cincy might have hit their ceiling last year and with so many changes around them, there could be a bit of a drop off this season. Therefore I’m not sure that this ‘improved’ Ravens team should ONLY be laying -1.5 in week 1 at home. If a 3-5 team that had a horrific offense could be a -2 point home favorite last season in this matchup, I’m not sure why an improved (boy, I’ve used this word a lot in this segment) squad this year is laying a similar number. I think Baltimore should be at least -3 in Week 1, thus the value is on them.
Lean: BAL -1.5
=================
MIN @ STL -3.5
O/U: 43.5
Season Totals:
St Louis Rams U 7 @ -140
Minnesota Vikings O 6 @ -166
We can’t begin our analysis of this game without discussing the impact of Sam Bradford’s injury. The line opened at -5.5, jumped to -6 in June, and changed to -4 after it was confirmed that Bradford was lost for the season with a knee injury. It’s at -3.5 at majority of books now. The question you have to ask yourself is whether or not Bradford is worth a full 2.5 points, with the spread coming-off key numbers of 6 and 4. Let’s compare some career stats for both:
Bradford: 58.6% Comp-%, 6.29 PY/A, 1.55 TD/INT ratio, and a QB-rating of 79.3.
Hill: 62.0% Comp-%, 6.69 PY/A, 1.78 TD/INT, and a QB-rating of 85.9
For comparison purposes, let’s take a quick look at Kellen Clemens’ numbers also:
Clemens: 54.5% Comp-%, 6.36 PY/A, 0.75 TD/INT, and a QB-rating of 68.6
Last-year only: 58.7% Comp-%, 6.91 PY/A, 1.14 TD/INT, and a QB-rating of 78.8
Clemens played on a lot of bad offenses in his career, so that could partly explain his numbers. But when you look at just his stats leading the Rams offense last season, his numbers are extremely close to Bradford’s for his career stats with the Rams. Same Comp-% (58.7 vs 58.6), same QB-rating (78.8 vs 79.3), and a higher PY/A (6.91 vs 6.29). Rams finished 7-9 last year. So in comes Hill now and based on career-stats, Hill is actually the ‘better’ QB than both of last year’s starters. Of course Hill hasn’t started an NFL game since 2010, but the skill-set is definitely there to at least be as good as Bradford. I don’t think I have to tell you that if this line reaches -3 Rams, St Louis has a lot of pure ‘value’. Obviously it won’t drop that far as the wise-guys would snatch that up immediately. But at -3.5 is St Louis still a potential play? Last year, Rams ranked 14th overall in Efficiency, had a Pythagorean wins of 7.6, and an SRS measure of +2.2, 6th best in the NFC. Vikings by comparison were 26th in Efficiency, had a Pythagorean Wins of 6.1, and an SRS of -6.6, the 2nd worst mark in the NFC, only above Washington. Based on SRS the variance was 8.8 between the two teams and if you add in about 3 points for home-field edge, that difference becomes close to 12. I quickly checked my model, which is based on last year’s stats, and I have Rams -7. Of course these teams are much different from last season, but going from around -7+ to -3.5 in one offseason is a big jump, with most of the line-movement happening due to a mediocre QB being declared out for the year. Did the market over-react to Bradford’s injury? I happen to think so. Look at Rams’ offensive rankings in the last 4 years, since Bradford joined them: 30th, 32nd, 21st, and 22nd last year. I highly doubt that Shaun Hill is a significantly worse option, considering how mediocre Bradford is. So let’s stop focusing on Bradford’s injury and concentrate on analyzing the other aspects of both of these teams. Offensively, we know that St Louis has a good offensive line that only got stronger with selection of Robinson with the 2nd overall pick. Their WR’s have youth and speed, but greatly underperformed last year. Someone has to emerge out of Austin, Givens, Pettis, Quick, and a newly signed Kenny Britt, who reportedly has looked great in training camp. The run game should be pretty strong with Stacy, Cunningham, and Mason leading the charge. The one major concern is that Brian Schottenheimer continues to be the offensive coordinator. In his 3 years as the Jets’ offensive coordinator, they ranked 22nd, 16th, and 21st. In his 2 years as the Rams’ O-coordinator, they ranked 21st and 22nd. Why is this guy an offensive coordinator at this level still? Heck, there was even a report out there after Bradford’s injury that Mark Sanchez did NOT want to join the Rams due to the fact that he didn’t want to be reunited with Schotty. The guy continuously puts up some of the most unimaginative game plans out there and even though I believe Rams have a better QB in Hill this year, I don’t see much improvement on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively though, this once again will be a very strong team. Rams’ strength is their D-line, as they ranked #1 in ASR% and #5 in ALY. They added Aaron Donald as a DT this year, which will just make them better. Their 15th pass-D ranking indicates that the secondary is a work in progress still, though they do have youth and are expected to improve there this season. Of course it’s also important to note that Gregg Williams will re-join (he was hired in 2012, served his 1-year NFL suspension for BountyGate, and then was released by the Rams in 2013) the Rams this season as their defensive coordinator. Think what you want of him, the guy has a track record of being a successful defensive coordinator and he can make this Rams D even scarier going forward. As for the Vikings, they went through a much needed coaching change by signing Zimmer as their HC and Norv Turner as the offensive coordinator. Norv should improve the offense greatly and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal: Patterson, Peterson, Rudolph, Jennings, and later on Bridgewater (starting the season on the bench). With a solid O-line in front of them, I’d expect this offense to improve. Defensively, you can’t get much worse than 27th. Of course the Vikes have jettisoned a number of veterans and are going with youth this season. Zimmer is a strong defensive coach but even he will need some time to turn this unit around to make them a formidable force. Overall, this Vikings team is heading in the right direction from my perspective.
What makes it tough for week 1 is that Minnesota has gone through so many changes that they barely resemble a team from last season. And of course we won’t know the true strength of this team until they play a few games, though ‘real’ change takes some time and I don’t see the Vikings becoming a playoff contender in Week 1 of this season. In any case, like I’ve mentioned earlier in this analysis, the line-move heavily correlates to Bradford going down, as prior to that injury the bookmakers valued Rams @ -6 at home. Unlike a QB going down in the middle of the regular season, Rams had two weeks to prepare to life without Bradford, so that’s an advantage for them there. I personally don’t think Bradford is worth even a 0.5 of a point in power-ratings, so this 2.5-point line move is totally unjustified in my eyes. I’m wondering if the public is pushing this line down, while the sharper players are waiting as long as possible for this number to get lower before backing the Rams. One potential opportunity is to tease St Louis at this number, by grabbing a 7-point -120 teaser (available at 5Dimes), and playing Rams +3.5. Yes, I know that typically it’s a cardinal sin to cross ZERO on a teaser, but this is a special situation. Under a ‘normal’ scenario (pre-Bradford injury), if you liked Rams in a teaser, you’d tease Rams -6 down to Rams PK or Rams +0.5, needing St Louis to win to cash the play. Under the current scenario, where I believe we’re getting a FREE 2.5 points, you can tease the Rams to +3.5 giving ourselves a lot more ‘outs’ in the play. You don’t need to be Billy Walters to understand that +3.5 @ -120 has a lot more value than PK @ -110.
Lean: STL -3.5 (7-point Teaser?)
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CAR @ TB -1.5
O/U: 39.5
Season Totals:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers O 7 @ -128
Carolina Panthers O 7.5 @ -140
Here’s another game with a significant line-movement since the opener. Bucs opened as +2 point home underdogs, moved to PK on 08/24, then -1, and even -1.5 at sharper books like Pinny. (If you like Bucs -1, better lock that in since the market eventually tends to follow sharp books like Pinnacle). So why do we see this 3/3.5 point move? A couple of reasons. First Cam Newton fractured a rib on Aug 22nd, though reports have been positive so far, indicating that he won’t be limited. Second potential reason for the move is the trade that the Bucs pulled off with New England, where they received Logan Mankins, a 6-time Pro Bowler and a heart-and-soul of the Patriots’ O-line (and team) for years. Remember, Bucs released Carl Nicks last month and had a major need on the interior of their O-line. This move makes them much better there and adds a ‘hungry’ player who will want to prove that he has a lot left in the tank. Of course it will take time to integrate Mankins fully into a new scheme and the rest of the Bucs’ O-line isn’t anything special. Here comes the problem for Tampa as they’ll be facing what might be the BEST front-7 in all of football. Carolina ranked 2nd in ASR% (60 total sacks), 6th in run-D, and 3rd in pass-D last year. They have a lot of turnover in their secondary, going for cheaper options instead of paying higher long-term contracts, but that’s not as big of a factor. Carolina plays a conservative scheme in the back, keeping their D-Backs deep, and allowing more opportunities for their front-7 to make plays as the opposition is trying to march down the field. Bucs ranked 24th offensively last year and this season they’ll have a new QB, a number of new O-linemen (no cohesion), new #2 WR, and two new TE’s. Doug Martin is coming off a horrible year even prior to his injury and of course there’s McCown. Oh McCown, the guy who led ALL QB’s in QBR rating last year (yes, even better than Peyton Manning). Here is what he did last year in his limited starts for the Bears:
JM (2014): 66.5% Comp-%; 8.17 PY/A; 13 TD/INT rate; 109 QB-rating
Here’s what he did in his 12 year career so far:
JM (Career): 59.4% Comp-%; 6.6 PY/A; 1.11 TD/INT rate; 77.5 QB-rating.
Remember, McCown is a career backup, who played in the UFL a few years back, and was coaching high school football prior to being called up for a backup job in Chicago. He’s also 35 years old and won’t be running Trestman’s scheme any longer. I know the Bucs have tried to surround him with tall weapons similar to Chicago’s receivers, but that’s not enough to expect him to perform at the same level. The league is loaded with stories of ‘career backups’ having 1 magical season and then all of a sudden regressing back to mediocrity. One example is when Derek Anderson threw 29 TD’s and averaged 7.19 PY/A and 82.5 QB-rating in 2007, his career highs for each category. He had a 5.7 PY/A average with 66.5 QB-rating the following season while throwing 9 TD’s in 10 games. He was back to being a career-backup after that. I think expecting McCown to all of a sudden become a ‘stud’ at 35 years old is a mistake. He’s a stop-gap player for the Bucs until they draft their QB-player of the future in the next draft. I think he’ll struggle this year in a different scheme, though he is somewhat familiar with Lovie. I can also see this Panthers D totally overwhelming the Bucs, dominating the line-of-scrimmage and dominating the game on the defensive side. Of course a similar thing could happen on the other side as well. Cam Newton is adjusting to a totally revamped receiving group. Carolina lost their top left tackle in the off-season when Jordan Gross retired, while failing to adequately replace him. And of course now Newton is dealing with a cracked rib. Tampa ranked 8th overall defensively last year and 7th against the run, which was Carolina’s specialty offensively. Lovie Smith is a defense-first coach, so I’d expect his defense to be the first unit to improve and play well. Honestly, I can easily envision a defensive battle between these two teams in week 1 and the total set by the bookmakers definitely indicates the same thing. Last season Carolina beat Tampa by 18 and by 21, totally dominating them in both games. Now a team that ranked 4th best last season and had an SRS of +9.2 is a +1 or +1.5 point underdog to a team that ranked 20th in efficiency and had an SRS of -2.7. Things do change quickly in the NFL from year to year, and parity is king but this seems like an over-adjustment. Similar to the line-movement in the Rams/Vikings game, the adjustment of 3.5 points (from -2 CAR to +1.5 CAR) seems a bit of an over-reaction. A lot of question marks and changes for both teams here, but based on all the ‘known factors’, I would still have to say that Carolina is a better team, and by a more significant margin than the current line indicates.
Lean: CAR +1.5
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SF @ DAL +4.5
O/U: 51
Season Totals:
Dallas Cowboys U 8 @ -200
San Francisco 49ers U 10.5 @ -170
Here’s another game with some significant line movement. Dallas opened at +3.5, moved to +4.5 in late July/early August, moved to +5 in mid-August, went as high as +6 at some books late in Aug, and now dropped back down to +4.5 in the last few days. The total has risen from 48 to 51 over the course of the off-season. San Francisco is going into Week 1 without Bowman (ACL), without Aldon Smith (9-game suspension), new FS starter in the secondary in Bethea, and now Ray McDonald being arrested on domestic violence charges. I’d venture to bet that this San Fran defense will take a hit early in the year. At the same time, Dallas is coming into this season without Demarcus Ware (6.0 sacks / 24 QB hurries), Jason Hatcher (11.0 sacks / 19.5 hurries), or Sean Lee (one of the top LB’s in the league). The Cowboys don’t really have any strong replacements for any of these guys and that’s a lot of ‘production’ that will be missed on the defensive side of the ball this season. Honestly, I’m not sure how Dallas is going to stop anyone defensively this year. They ranked 32nd in defensive efficiency last year, and will be in the bottom of the league once again this year pending some sort of a miracle. San Fran has a lot of weapons in Kaepernick, Crabtree, Davis, Boldin, Johnson, Gore, and Hyde. O-line might not gel just yet as Boone just finished his hold-out a week ago, as 49ers caved to his demands. That of course tells you that maybe San Fran is a little desperate as they’re feeling some pressure. As their key players are getting hurt and/or suspended, it’s important to have a good start to the season and all players are needed at this time, even if it means breaking some self-imposed rules (like ‘No negotiation with players on a holdout’). This ‘desperation’ could be a signal that maybe the Niners aren’t in as great of a shape to start the year as most people believe. And of course when your defense is missing (or potentially missing) so many key players, an offense like Dallas can take advantage, and more so at home. One thing we know about Dallas is to fade them as a ‘favorite’ and to back them as an ‘underdog’. I forgot what exactly the trends are, but it’s a pretty large discrepancy. In week 1, Dallas is a solid home underdog, and there’s only one place to look if you’re going to play the side in this one.
Lean: DAL +4.5 and OVER 51
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NYG @ DET -5.5
O/U: 47
Season Totals:
Detroit Lions U 8.5 @ -140
New York Giants U 8 @ -155
This one opened at -4, rose to -4.5 by early August, and then jumped to -5.5, the most useless number in football, in the last few days. Will this one get to -6 DET? I doubt it. In any case, I was excited to break this game down because one of these teams is going to be a playoff team this year and a division winner. Yes, I expect the Giants to improve a lot this season. The biggest reason is because their defense finished 6th overall last season. They ranked 3rd against the run and 8th against the pass. Can this D improve? Yes, and the reason is due to the fact that this team only ranked 28th in ASR% (34 total sacks). So with a pretty weak pass-rush they still ended up with the 6th best defense in the league. Now that’s impressive. The problem last year was that Jason Pierre-Paul played hurt as he only registered 2 sacks on the year. Supposedly 100% healthy, expect a stronger pass-rush from NY and thus a potential improvement on the defensive side. The strength of this team is their defensive secondary, and they’ve added Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond to an already strong group. Nobody thinks that Giants have a great D but they do, and I like them to be just as strong, if not stronger this year. Offensively, we all know that NY was a disaster, ranking 31st on the year. But in the previous 3 years this Giants offense ranked 10th, 7th, and 7th, so what gives? Typically when a team is consistently good at something, then ‘falls off the cliff’ for a year, they tend to bounce back up quickly. I think we’ll see that with NY. Remember, last year they’ve dealt with a ton of injuries on the offensive side of the ball (defensive also actually). Their O-line was in shambles most of the season, their running backs were all beat up prompting NY to bring in a washed up Peyton Hillis, and their receivers were in and out of the lineup. The only person that didn’t get hurt was Eli Manning, and that’s surprising given the fact that he was beat up constantly. New York shored up their O-line, drafted a WR with the 12th pick, and brought on Rashad Jennings. Jennings can run and catch the ball, and is very similar to Bradshaw who was severely missed last year. While this offense will improve health-wise, the biggest change is the signing of Ben McAdoo as an offensive coordinator. He comes from Green Bay and will install a quick-passing West Coast offense, similar to what rejuvenated Philip Rivers last year and made the Chargers a top-5 offense in the league. I’m not saying the Gmen will make such a jump but they will be much better than last year on the offensive side of the ball. As for the Lions, the Jim Schwartz era is finally over and in comes Caldwell. Surprisingly last year, Detroit ranked lower offensively (19th) than on defense (14th), something that you don’t see that often with this team. Caldwell is an offensive coach and I think Detroit will have a very strong offense this year. Signing Golden Tate and drafting Ebron will help in that respect. If Caldwell can help Stafford further in his development, this offense will be scary. The tough part is to project the defense to maintain any sort of consistency. This unit tends to fluctuate greatly from year to year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they regressed once again. These two teams met last year in week 16 as Detroit was fighting for the post-season. Listed as -9.5 home favorites, Detroit proceeded to lose the game as the Gmen eliminated Detroit from the post-season. In that one, both teams averaged 4.3 and 4.4 YPP and both had 13 first downs. It was a very even game and clearly the Lions were way overvalued with that number. So in the rematch, with ‘revenge’ on the line, Detroit is listed at -5.5, a full 4 points lower. Clearly last year’s number was over-inflated, but I think the current one is also. Giants’ D is legit and their O will be much better this season. Detroit is that inconsistent team that lacks maturity and fundamentals, while losing games due to basic ineptitude. That’s the reason why this team is only 5-10 ATS at home and has lost numerous one-score games over the last few seasons. Caldwell was brought in to fix that of course, but it will take some time. To me, Giants are a ‘better’ team this year and I think they’re probably one of the better plays in week 1.
Lean: NYG +5.5
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This ends my NFL 2014 Season preview and Week 1 matchup analysis. Keep in mind that I’ve worked on this over a period of a few weeks, so some lines/totals might be stale a bit as well as some recent info might be missing. I’ll try to address some of those throughout the week or in my plays. I will be posting my final picks with additional analysis throughout the week, and of course throughout this season as well.
Finally, just want to quickly share my predictions for division winners and all other playoff picks.
2014 NFC Playoffs:
#1: Green Bay Packers – the best team in the North.
#2: San Francisco 49ers – this team will rely on their offense this year to get the job done.
#3: New Orleans Saints – another team that is clearly the best in their division.
#4: New York Giants – the best defense in the division, and we could see some regression from Philly.
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#5: Seattle Seahawks – Can Harvin + BeastMode stay healthy? New emphasis on defensive contact.
#6: Chicago Bears - Offense is elite while D will creep closer to league average.
NFC Championship Game:
Green Bay Packers over San Francisco 49ers
Seattle is still an elite team of course, but it’s so very hard to make a deep playoff run in consecutive seasons. I have concerns about Harvin and Lynch being fully healthy for a full season, their O-line is still a weak link, and of course the league’s emphasis on defensive contact penalties is something that definitely needs to be considered here. I think teams with ‘elite offenses’ will have more of an advantage this season and that’s why I’m not prediction another SuperBowl appearance for the ‘Hawks. Packers to me have as great of a shot as any elite team in the NFC, and I think 49ers will be fine but just can’t overlook all the distractions, injuries, and suspensions. Eventually it could come back to haunt them. Packers are my NFC representative in the SuperBowl.
2014 AFC Playoffs:
#1: Denver Broncos – still an elite offense and huge improvements on the defensive end.
#2: New England Patriots – could easily see them beating Denver. They will be THAT good.
#3: Baltimore Ravens – 7th ranked D last year and improved offensive weapons.
#4: Tennessee Titans – 31st ranked schedule and Whisenhunt can make this offense elite.
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#5: San Diego Chargers – I really like this team this year and defense has nowhere to go but up.
#6: Pittsburgh Steelers – youth movement and stability at leadership positions on both sides of the ball.
AFC Championship Game:
Denver Broncos over New England Patriots
I think these will be the best two teams in the AFC this year and they’re destined to meet in the AFC Championship game as long as most key players stay relatively healthy.
SuperBowl:
Denver Broncos over Green Bay Packers
No, it’s not because I think Denver is ‘due’ after last year. I just don’t see Seattle making it back to the big game, and if that’s the case, Denver should be the best team left standing. Peyton Manning wins another championship, retires a winner, and goes back to Indianapolis to buy the Colts from the currently-suspended owner, Jim Irsay, immediately renaming the team to “Indianapolis Omaha’s”. His legend only continues to grow for all eternity….
Good luck this season everyone and let’s win some $$.
~ VegasButcher