College Football - Specialization the KEY to Success
I am going to really hone in on 3 conferences this Year. Big 12 as usual, Big 10 and PAC 12.....Knowing a finite number of teams and using my resources through my national radio show and beat sportswriters, and knowing these teams inside and out, will enhance my win percentage. Of course I look at other games on the board but narrowing down these conferences and having about 65% of my selections in these conferences will enhance my win %. I look at a few very small conferences as well to lock in on a hidden gem or two. I have always done extremely well in the Big 12 and had some good success in ther Big 10 last year as well, so I look forward to this season with great anticipation.
NFL
Betting into numbers in the NFL and tracking those "bad" numbers on a performance scale is a larger part of my database. I also partnered with a math / system based guru who has shown me his database approach to NFL where he did 61% to 64% ATS overt the past 3 seasons (about 3 games a week), I am going to use and incorporate his method of power rankings this season. Ran into the guy locally (he approached me at a radio live remote gig I did) and got to talking, had him over to the office and he showed me this information and records and I was duly impressed. Not giving away the secrets here, but it is intensive and "line based performance" for the database. I am very excited about this approach this season. Low Volume, line value based selections.
Overall Outlook
Experience counts - I have 22 years of it, and it will pay dividends. I have had more preparation this season in NFL and College than I have done in quite some time. This is my 22nd year, and believe me when I tell you I am still learning, and learning from losses is KEY to anyone who handicaps games. I have kept MLB to minimum this year simply because this season I want more knowledge and information in my arsenal and more in depth knowledge of KEY conferences in College Ball, and a few Key teams in the NFL. This has not been a year where I realize it is August 1st and I need to start studying, I have been at football since early May this season.
Also improvements to my database as mentioned above and also a better refinement in College Football for my power numbers which now include 3 other Power rating outlets whom I feel their information and final numbers can equate into myself refining my numbers and getting better value on numbers I find.
Obviously there are numerous factors which affect everyone's results, many of them intangibles you cannot accurately predict from week to week. Turnovers, penalties, key players lost during the game, and of course bad coaching calls. There is allot of competition out there in the handicapping business and sharpening and honing my skills to keep up with the Jones so to speak, should have me in a prime position this season to have a very good year, and coming off stellar post seasons and decent regular seasons in the NBA and NCAA Basketball ( #1 NCAA and #4 NBA monitored by Sports Watch in post seasons) , I feel some serious potential and momentum coming into football. One thing is for sure, if you use Tony George Sports I can assure you I am not throwing darts at a board and you get my best shot every week.