There's any number of ways to analyze specific sports and situations, but it seams to me that if you can identify a real letdown spot, you'll be money ahead in the long run. In many situations the letdown is built into the line or at least hinted at, but if we can find one of the "out-of-the-blue" letdown games where the favorite just doesn't show up, the opportunity to cash a big ticket is huge. And to top it off, you usually don't have to win the game to beat the spread. I know Marco D'Angelo was a wizard at identifying these situations, but all the pros look for these kinds of opportunities and ultimately after all the stats are compiled it's the situation that determines the play.
I'm fairly good at identifying them, but I'm a stubborn SOB and will often go against this kind of wisdom only to lose the bet.
I'm well aware of the:
- game after the big game,
- the game before the big game (the look-ahead game),
- the dream-crusher play,
- the must-win game (which usually loses),
- the back-to-back game,
- the third road game letdown (college and NFL football),
- and just plain-downright ignoring or discounting the lesser opponent,
But I'm sure there are many other reasons teams and players come out flat. With college hoops now in full-go mode, there will be plenty of spots in the coming two and a half months to profit from letdowns and any insight from the forum amateurs and pros will help us all.
The questions I have are,
- What tips or techniques do you have for identifying a letdown spot?
- Are you aware of any printed material that deals with this phenomena?
- Also, which of these scenarios do you find to be pure myth?
I can't help but think there's some psychologists that have studied this phenom. We know the lines makers are masters of this subject, but I'm not versed in sport psychology so please post any tips you've got.
Thanks