One of my favorite times of all sports betting events...March Madness!
Ohio St Vs. Dayton - OSU will get a ton of money tomorrow...First game to tip...Now...Public will be all over this OSU team come morning...This line may hit 7..That's right what i want to see...Key stats...OSU has not covered the last 6 games...Has not won by more than 6 pts in those 6 games....Dayton..complete opposite...Dayton has covered 4 out of the last 5....Dayton lasts 3 losses...All by St. Joes...repeat..last 3 losses for Dayton...have all been by St. Joe's...They just cant beat that team...A change of scenery will be good for Dayton....I like this one close...I can see a possible upset...But i feel...OSU if they do get the job done...Cant get it past 6....I will be looking for max points on this..i think we see +7 before tip.....Play Dayton + 6.5 = Winner
W. Mich Vs.Syracuse - Syracuse has lost a little luster, and i think the line value isn't quite maxed out on the dog...I believe in the Orangeman...They really had a rough stretch the last month...Schedule was brutal..road game after road game..Just took its toll on this Syracuse team...They can cause havoc with the defense and really just shut you down...W.Mich on the other hand is the team you really want to see..or in Syracuse's mind not want to see....Why?....This team is rolling...W.Mich has got it together..from the coach to the towel boy...This team may be one of the hottest teams coming into the big dance....I really like this team...i jumped on them a number of times...A ton of covers as a fav and a dog...This team will get little respect from the public if any...***Key**...OSU and Dayton play before Syracuse and W.Mich...They will know who they face before tip...Look ahead?...i think so...Play W. MIchigan + 13 = Loser
St. Joe's Vs UConn - One thing to note on this game...UConn's last 9 games have gone UNDER the total....This total sits at 131...In my eyes...we have value on the OVER...Im surprised this number has not gone up..but i expect it...Jump now !!.....As for this game...I'm a bit biased...because i am a Uconn fan....None the less...both team come into this game...with no reason to hang there heads for the conf tournaments they just played..Uconn a loser to Louisville...and St. Joe's...With a win against VCU...actually got a good draw...so i think they will be looking forward to this challenge....They do have a legit shot in this game..This game will be played before they know who they will face to let them just both focus...The guard play for Uconn may the deciding factor in this game...St. Joe's will not go away with out a fight...I give a slight chance for St Joe's to pull the outright upset...but i feel again the public will get involved with this late game...and may try to unload late...and we get even more value here with St. Joe's.....I think we may see a 6 pop up on the board late...I like the pts here guys....Play St. Joes + 5.5 = Loser
Wisc- Milw Vs. Villanova - This one on paper looks like nova kills these guys...I'm not so sure...Nova is a covering machine...ATS...you would of made a small fortune backing this team...The books know this...and influx of recreational bettors...this number is only going to get better for the sharps....Sitting right now at 16.5...power-rated this at 14...on a neutral...but looking at whats at stake here...idk if Nova goes balls to the wall...They can prob coast past these guys...Is wisc-milw fat drunk and happy?...i can't answer that...but they have won 5 straight..covered 5 straight...and managed to not only win the Horizon conf championship to earn the right to be in the big dance...they also for a 2nd time in just under 2 weeks are getting no respect...This team plays well..when they are up against a wall and have something to prove...Will they win...No they wont...Nova is just to deep....Nova will know who they are playing before tip...and if Uconn takes care of business...Nova will not try to over do it in this game because they will be running full force against Napier and Uconn come Sat...I'm looking for a late back door cover here...I think we see some bench players scattered throughout...this may look bad early and often..but i don't see this one getting to much above 20 points...I think we catch a extra half to full point tomorrow before tip...as again the public will look to bang a #2 seed for some late money...and we can swoop in there and get some added value on a number i feel is 2.5 pts to high...Play Wisc-Milw + 16.5 = Loser
Albany Vs Florida - Here we have a blowout, This Albany team had a nice win...but that will all but soon be forgotten....They draw the potential worst team in this entire thing..This will be close for about 3 min...My gut...says this one gets ugly before half...and after half...I got this one 74- 46..I honestly have nothing to offer on the dog side in this one..Play Florida - 21.5 = Loser
Pitt Vs, Colorado - We have a ton of Pitt backers in this one..Colorado has lost the luster they once held onto this year..Colorado is down..Pitt comes into the Conf tournament needing wins and they get those huge wins over..Clemson, Wake, and even North Carolina...This team has caught fire at just the right time..and the public know this team is hot...This line sits at 6.5...and every one and there mother will be on Pitt...They had to play for there lives just to get into this thing..They made it!!!...Mission accomplished for Pitt...Get ready Pitt...Play Colorado plus +6.5 =Loser
N.C. State Vs. St Louis - This St. Louis team reminds of Syracuse...having a great year...and bamm!!..they fall apart...do i expect a bounce back here..Im not 100% sure...One thing i like about St.Louis is the defense...but they have no offense...and have really struggled to get anything going..especially against quality teams...N.C. had to play Xavier just to get here...Mission accomplished!!...but wait...they had that Xavier game in hand at the end with time to spare....getting a convincing win...Not a last second hoo-rah bench clearing winner...It set in they got into the big dance...so lets not think letdown here...Let's think opportunity here for NC...they can ball..we have seen that...Winner will get Louisville...Who cares really...lets just have that chance...NC State is for real...They are playing the best ball they have all year...momentum is on there side and def is not on the Billikens side...Play N.C. State + 3 = Push
Manhattan Vs. Louisville - I really respect this Manhattan team..They always come to ball..always...a solid group of kids about to step on the court with a friggin buzzsaw!!!...I feel bad for the Jaspers in this one as they not only lose big...but we will all be looking to back the cards in RD 2..be careful guys..They may be laying DD again after this one gets ugly ...Louisville 79-61 -Play Louisville - 16.5 = Loser
Oregon Vs. BYU - I'm not going to get into why i love Oregon here...I'm one of these guys that def thinks this BYU team was gifted a chance to play here...They will get what they asked for and some extra against this Ducks team...All cylinders will be full steam ahead...Oregon rolls these guys big time..big time !!....Play Oregon - 5 = Winner
American Vs. Wisky - Here we go again with a school 98% of the public has never heard of...They will throw down chunks on Wisky tomorrow....Now i'm not 100% sure that American can keep this within reach..but looking at how slow American plays...this is a nice spread and this one may struggle to get over 110 if that's even possible...look for one of those 54-43 type of games...just down right UGLY !!....Play American + 13.5.=Loser
AZ State Vs. Texas - Bottom line in this game...This one looks great on paper!!...Texas has beaten all the teams who even matter in the Big12..all of them...AZ St. to me..is a nice team...with a nice season...but i think we are getting great line value here with Texas....I got this line at 5.5 since the day the bracket dropped...Texas has sputtered down the stretch...but they knew they would be here...and they really had some tough scheduling issues to deal with down the stretch...This AZ St. team outside of the home gym..i cant trust...i will be happy to lay - 2 here...this line only goes up...Play Texas - 2 = Push
Wofford Vs. Michigan - I'll be honest...I think Michigan is over-rated..i really do....but still..its Michigan..and they get to play Wofford...They come from a horrible conf...and have beaten up on some bad teams...They also have played some good teams in the beginning of the year and have managed to hang around this very number of 14.5 in which the Wolverines are favored by...i think this number goes back up to the 15.5 area...and i would be willing to back Wofford at 16...This team really has hit it's stride..and i'm sure u will get this teams best effort..Im not going to fire on this game...I just dont know..Lean Wofford + 15.5 if available.
Harvard Vs. Cincy - That big 12-5 matchup everyone is excited to see....Let's get a few things out of they way....First off Harvard isn't as good as most think...Don't let the 24-6 record fool you...The Ivy league was down...Now Harvard is a nice team..I made plenty on those guys...and same as for Cincy....here is where i think this game is decided...and the line is perfect....The media has managed to piss off the Bearcats to no end...They woke a sleeping giant...If this was..lets say a 3-13 or 7-9 matchup...this goes nice and quiet..and cincy is a 5.5 fav....They did this on purpose...They got everyone on this one...Not me !!!...I'm not backing Harvard here...no way in hell..Cincy has one of the best point guards out there...u think Kirkpatrick and this Bearcat team is just going to let Harvard blow them up??...Hell no !!...Cincy..has played some of the best teams in CBB and has beaten them and taken great teams to the wire...The downfall for Cincy...is u cant lay a premium number with this team...They suc ATS....and being that the entire public and recreational bettor has this 12-5 upset in there heads because it was sold to them...We got a virgin line here of -3...This line may even go back down....I love it !!....I think Cincy..plays all out here..possible DD win...Play Cincy - 3 = Loser
Delaware Vs. Mich St. - This is the game i will actually watch from wire to wire....Mich St...has become the talk of the town...Many are backing this team to win it all...and i feel they deserve that respect...This team has really come into themselves over the last few weeks...They are healthy and playing great ball...The issue they are having is down low...and Delaware if need be can bang underneath...Both teams can score..pure shooters all over the floor in this one....The issue for Delaware here...is can they stop the Mich State runs....they will go on a run and if u don't stop it fast...they will be up DD in the matter of minutes...I lean heavy on Tom Izzo to out coach in this one...His kids are fired up...and yes maybe getting to much public love...no better way than to deliver...I feel Delaware is just in a diff class in this game..and i look for Sparty to roll with a reasonable victory..That wont leave u sweating at the end...Play Mich St. - 13.5 = Winner
No Dak St Vs. Oklahoma - Ok, another 12-5 match-up...Oklahoma is better..plain and simple..look at what they have done this year against the Big12.....Dakota comes from the summit...That conf isn't that great..they beat up on teams that honestly suck...Oklahoma has the offensive fire power to play with any team in CBB....and have been tested time and time again...No.Dak St. basically just strolled into the big dance the way i see it...They nearly got beat by Ft-Wayne a few days back...This is just crazy..Sooners can cover against any team...will they face a tough test...sure they will...But i love the fact that everyone has left them for dead...Did they need to win the Big12 title?...what more of a gain would that have helped them....none...so go kill yourself before the big dance and play power house teams all they way through and teams that need to win like blood....They are very well coached as well.....so why crown this No. Dak St team a winner already?...because it's a 12-5 matchup...i doubt any 5 lose this year...i'm looking at the 2's and 3's....I'll bet the coach has had to remind this team 1000 times already they haven't won.yet and stop listening to the radio.....Don't fill kids heads with positive thoughts when something negative is about to happen...Sooner up!!!...Play Oklahoma - 3 = Loser
New Mexico St. Vs. San Diego St. - Both are nice teams...and this number looks just about right...Problem i see here...and i've witnessed with my own eyes...Is the Aztecs will smother you to death on defense...and if u can't find an answer to it fairly Quick...your down a buncha points...and its hard to come back on this team...Now i do feel S.D. St..is a touch over-rated..but still a quality team that can make noise...They can win a game or 2 or even 3..They can go deep..if they buckle down and play how they are capable of playing...They just create so much trouble if your offense isn't rolling...New Mexico St...will struggle on defense enough to let San Diego State cover this one..but i think it may be rather a nail-niter here...Play San Diego St. - 7 = Loser
**I think all these dog lines will move in our favor...The Cincy and Oklahoma line as favs may move down...so lets keep an eye on the market and not feed into to much of the movement...and just know what we need and fire when the time is right...BOL to all u guys tomorrow...or rather today...hope we all cash and enjoy the games...
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Great information Sleepy... thanks & BOL...
dude great job, i forgive you for taking peppers
Terrific work Sleepy, I really enjoyed reading your perspective on these games. Agree with many, disagree with a few, but definitely respect the analysis. I still think if there's going to be a "huge" upset today, it's Western Michigan over Syracuse.
nice write ups!!! bol
Great info here sleepy. BOL today
Third year sports bettor NFL/ CFB/ CBB/ NBA. Always looking to learn, criticism always welcomed.
Great job Sleepy
Nice job buddy. BOOMER, SOONER!!!!!! Time for me to put my OK hat on!!!
Behold the Turtle.
He makes progress only when he sticks his neck out.
--James Bryant Conant
Thanks guys, appreciate thelove...Lets kick some ass today !