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14 DON'T MISS NCAA Bracket Rules

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Thread Starter 14 DON'T MISS NCAA Bracket Rules
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15096
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***Bracket Picking Rules & Tips from Vegas!
(all records since modern era began in 1985 unless noted)

FIRST ROUND picks:
TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose.
#16 seeds are 0 for 116
#15 seeds are 7 for 116

TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win.
At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 25 of 29 years
#13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games

TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds.
#12 seeds have won at least one game 23 of 25 years
#9 seeds are 4 wins above .500 vs. #8 seeds

SECOND ROUND picks:
TIP: Advance #1 seeds into the 3rd round unless very good reason not to.
88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16

TIP: Keep advancing any #12 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
#12 seeds win nearly half the time in Round Two
#12 seeds have more Sweet 16 appearances overall than #7 seeds
A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 27 of 29 years

TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed.
Only ONCE in 29 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen

TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the 2nd round.
Only 9 of 464 teams (less than 2%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12

Sweet 16 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8.
71% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8
(that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!)

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8
26 have made it the Sweet 16, but only 1 of 232 Elite 8 teams seeded worse than #11

Elite 8 round picks:
TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 23 of 29 years

TIP: Advance no team worse than a #8 seed to the Final Four.
Only 3 of 140 Final Four teams (since 1979) have been seeded worse than #9

FINAL FOUR round picks:
TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game.
Only ONE team worse than #6 has made it in last 28 years

TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game
Since tournament seeding began 35 years ago (1979)
only 6 times have two #1 seeds made the finals

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick:
TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all.
For 25 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!

---

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MrSeanHiggs
Joined: 05/04/2010
Posts: 238
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Great stuff RJ!

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13aces
Joined: 02/28/2013
Posts: 1653
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Awesome info.

Raiderman66
Joined: 09/21/2012
Posts: 4994
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Thank you for the tips RJ.  Will you be posting any team specific notes later this week?

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Livescore
Joined: 12/26/2012
Posts: 393
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That is some of tje best info I have ever read on the site

Dr._Dan_Eye_Man
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 547
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Always love this reminder RJ

Dr. Dan

Raiderman66
Joined: 09/21/2012
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RJ - you claim that only one team worse than a #6 seed has made the Final Four in the last 28 years.  There are more than one, although it's small.  #11 LSU in 1986, #8 North Carolina in 2000 (I seem to recall there were two #8's in 2000 - was Ohio State a #8 that year, too?), #11 VCU in 2011 (I don't believe a single #1 made the Final Four in 2011).  And who could forget #11 George Mason in 2006 or #9 Wichita State just last year?  You may want to double check my memory, but there have been several teams below a 6 seed that made the Final Four in the modern era.

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dukeisgood
Joined: 02/05/2009
Posts: 31
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Raiderman66 he said advanced to the championship game. Read it again.

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