***Bracket Picking Rules & Tips from Vegas! (all records since modern era began in 1985 unless noted) FIRST ROUND picks: TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose. #16 seeds are 0 for 116 #15 seeds are 7 for 116 TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win. At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 25 of 29 years #13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds. #12 seeds have won at least one game 23 of 25 years #9 seeds are 4 wins above .500 vs. #8 seeds SECOND ROUND picks: TIP: Advance #1 seeds into the 3rd round unless very good reason not to. 88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16 TIP: Keep advancing any #12 seeds you picked to win in Round One. #12 seeds win nearly half the time in Round Two #12 seeds have more Sweet 16 appearances overall than #7 seeds A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 27 of 29 years TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed. Only ONCE in 29 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the 2nd round. Only 9 of 464 teams (less than 2%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12 Sweet 16 round picks: TIP: Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8. 71% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8 (that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!) TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8 26 have made it the Sweet 16, but only 1 of 232 Elite 8 teams seeded worse than #11 Elite 8 round picks: TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four. The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 23 of 29 years TIP: Advance no team worse than a #8 seed to the Final Four. Only 3 of 140 Final Four teams (since 1979) have been seeded worse than #9 FINAL FOUR round picks: TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game. Only ONE team worse than #6 has made it in last 28 years TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game Since tournament seeding began 35 years ago (1979) only 6 times have two #1 seeds made the finals CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick: TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all. For 25 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or better!
RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegasThursday: My Vegas Trends, Stats, and Handicapping Tips for NFL Week 13
Great stuff RJ!
Thank you for the tips RJ. Will you be posting any team specific notes later this week?
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That is some of tje best info I have ever read on the site
Always love this reminder RJ
RJ - you claim that only one team worse than a #6 seed has made the Final Four in the last 28 years. There are more than one, although it's small. #11 LSU in 1986, #8 North Carolina in 2000 (I seem to recall there were two #8's in 2000 - was Ohio State a #8 that year, too?), #11 VCU in 2011 (I don't believe a single #1 made the Final Four in 2011). And who could forget #11 George Mason in 2006 or #9 Wichita State just last year? You may want to double check my memory, but there have been several teams below a 6 seed that made the Final Four in the modern era.
Raiderman66 he said advanced to the championship game. Read it again.