hear ya russ.
billy, it's hard to say. ualr is looking to settle the score w/ troy after getting mauled 75-62 at home by troy. (both teams are trojans, btw). up until the loss to geo state, ualr was vyeing for 2 or 3rd place in conferece, but now is in the midst of dropping 5 straight games. several injuries can account for the losses (some close), but ualr's leading man is willie neighbour and he is the mitochondria. the team struggles to fill his void and is a different team.
troy is pitiful and has taken some wood shed beating this year. under new HC cunningham they have had some problems in transition. they did beat ualr & ark state (3rd in conf) on the road (b2b); so any given night I suppose. boasting an rpi >250 really tells the tale of a team that is rebuilding. they have amassed 4 conference wins (2 mentioned) and have been a team that exhibits failure to thrive. thus, as other teams have gotten better through the year, troy has lost it's early season competitive edge.
i was really hoping that ualr would be catching a couple of points here in a game that very well might win; but that was the assessment before i knew the extent of will neighbour's injury and him not playing at all in this spot. personally, i've been watching and waiting on this spot in anticipation; but the bad news on the doorstep changes that notion.
however, despite will neighbour not playing here, i expect an open of troy (-3.5). the remaining ualr crew will matchup well and both know each other. ualr has played w/o neighbour since 02/08 and he had limited minutes during the tex-ar game a few days ago. so there should be little adjustment to the process in his abscense as coach shields and coach klien have patched things together sum-what.
i doubt oddsmakers get crazy here and tack on the VAT tax w/ ualr's known injury star going down, but they might get hefty. in any event ualr should not be favored in this game, esp w/ willie out.
i posted b/c some of the members here like to get down early, and those that follow the belt would see the situtional spot that ualr is in the position to be a good play - however - the news can be disruptive as a key player is down.
until further adieu, i will obviously have more information on this game tommorrow, as well as ark-hogs, and will post what i have locally on the forum. probably won't touch the ualr game until they get a clean bill of health, as the losing skid very well may continue and have concerns about the big instate game coming up saturday as well.