I went just 1-1 last night. I had no top play last night, so they are still on a 18-1-1 run, including 14-0-1 my last 15. I hope to keep it going today. Writeups for top plays only today. BOL everyone.
4 UNIT PLAY
Virginia/ Florida State Under 122: Cavs home games have averaged a mere 108.9 ppg this year and that is due to a very slow pace they play and a very stingy defense they have. The Cavs come in allowing 57.4 ppg on the year, but at home they have allowed just 48.1 ppg on 34.4% shooting. Yikes. They will not be taking on a strong offensive team in this one, as FSU rings up just 65.2 ppg on the road and they have scored just 64.2 ppg in their last 5 games overall. The Noles have played some good defense this year, allowing just 61.8 ppg overall on just 36.3% shooting, while in their last 5 games they have given up just 55.2 ppg on 33.6% shooting. Now those are all great numbers for an under, but the kicker may be the series. In the last 8 meetings between these teams, there has been an average of just 114.6 ppg scored, with none of those 8 games putting up more than 125 points. I look for this one to be played under 115.
3 UNIT PLAYS
North Carolina/ Boston College Under 143: The way both teams have been playing of late, I feel that this line is out of whack. Boston College is really having problems scoring right now, averaging just 65.7 ppg on 42% shooting in their last 5 games. They have also hit just 31% from long range over that stretch, plus just 68.5% from the charity stripe, which is way down from their seasonal average of 76%. This team is having problems in all phases of their offense right now, and it won't get any better vs a North Carolina team that allows just 67.5 ppg on 38.5% shooting on their home floor. The BC defense is not nearly as strong, as they allow 76 ppg on the year, but they will be taking on an offense that is also struggling. The Heels come in averaging 75.6 ppg overall, but in their last 3 games (all vs the ACC) they have averaged just 56.3 ppg. Boston College's last 5 games have averaged just 124.2 ppg, while Carolina's last 5 have averaged just 126.4 ppg. Big differences from 143. I expect this one to stay below 135.
Oklahoma State/ Kansas Under 151: Offensive numbers alone would indicate a high scoring game, but these teams have played good defense this year. Kansas averages 78.9 ppg biut they are 232nd in the nation in shots per game. A big reason is that they shoot 50% from the field, but that will be hard to do here vs an OSU squad that allows just 64.6 ppg on 37.6% shooting for the year. KU Isn't great from the charity stripe (68.8%) and they shoot just 34.7% from long range. KU Has had issues at times on defense, but at home they have played very well, allowing just 65 ppg on 41% shooting. They should be able to keep this solid OSU attack under control in this one. This is a huge game in the Big 12 and should be fairly close down the stretch which should lead to both teams just walking the ball up the court and looking for the best shot. I see this one in the lower 140's at best.
Purdue/ Penn State Under 150: (Added) I know that both teams have played allot of games in the upper 140's this year, but still I don't see that happening in this one. This has been a low scoring series as just 121.9 ppg have been put up between these teams in the last 10 meetings. Just one of those games put up more than 144 points and that was the 151 points that were scored, back in 2011. Penn State was scoring in bunches before Big 10 play, but they have slowed down big time, putting up just 65.6 ppg in their 5 league games so far. They had averaged 82+ ppg during their non-conference slate. Can't see their offense improving much in this one vs a Purdue defense that has allowed just 67.7 ppg on 39.2% shooting at home. Purdue has slowed down slightly on offense as they have averaged just 71.4 ppg in their last 5 games, compared to their seasonal average of 76.8 ppg. The PSU defense is not stout at all, but I don't expect a run and gun offense from Purdue here that will put up 75 or more. Both teams are struggling from the FT line and neither is good from long distance, while both teams defend the arc very well. Look for this one to be played a slower pace and put up no more than 139 points.
Washington/ Stanford Under 146: (Added) The Cardinal plays good defense at home, allowing just 67.5 ppg on 39.5% shooting, while in their last 5 games overall they have allowed just 68 ppg on 42.2% shooting. The Huskies gave up 82 points to California in heir last game, but still this is a team that had been playing great defense as they allowed just 62.8 ppg in their 5 games prior to the California debacle. Stanford does score 75 ppg at home, but after heir last game I can see the Huskies really getting after them defensively and hold Stanford to no more than 72 points. The Cardinal should have little problem holding a Washington team that scores just 66 ppg on the road in the 60's here. 72-63 sounds about right.
8 POINT TEASER--- Indiana State +18.5 & Pittsburgh +12.5 & Wisconsin +.5
2 UNIT PLAY
UCLA -2.5 over UTAH
Western Illinois/ North Dakota State Under 129
UL Lafayette/ Troy Over 145.5 (Added)
8 POINT TEASER--- Louisville +5.5 & UNLV +16.5 & Utah State +16 (Added)
1 UNIT PLAYS
Louisville -1.5 over UCONN
Ole Miss -1.5 over SOUTH CAROLINA
Long Beach State/ Cal Poly Under 125 (Added)
Michigan State/ Illinois Under 130.5 (Added)
Top Plays Overall 67-52-4 (+29.6 Units)... 5 Unit 0-0-0 (0.0 Units)... 4 Unit 4-1-0 (+11.6 Units)... 3 Unit 63-51-4 (+18.0 Units)
Top Play Totals 34-26-3 (+21.3 Units)... Top Play Teasers 11-8-0 (+3.6 Units)
Other Plays Overall 117-74-6 (+52.7 Units)... Other Play Totals 70-30-2 (+60.1 Units)... Teasers 2-6-0 (-7.1 Units)
"Negative people will always try and drag you down to their level. Love them, but always rise above them."There may be people that have more talent than you, but there's no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.
booooooom um jss
www.jrodonnell.com ....currently on a 1634 1501 & 479 409 3* 54% ..NOW WE KEEP THE HAMMER DOWN ...... "No man ever reached to excellence in any one art or profession without having passed through the slow and painful process of study and preparation .
479 409 & 49-41 3* RUN
Thanks JR. I hope you have a great day
YEAH YOUR AVATAR SWEET!!
IS THAT THE GIRL NEXT DOOR?
I will have a teaser or two a bit later im sure. I usually like to look for them in the later games.
BOL AS ALWAYS JEFF HOPE YOU HAVE A KICK ASS WEEKEND.
"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"
Thanks Pro and Griff. All the best to you both as well
BOL today Jeff and keep your hot streak going! That UVa/FSU under play looks great...you convinced me. That does look like a very high O/U line.