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Essler's Wednesday Cliff Notes - Not Shocked by Billikens

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Thread Starter Essler's Wednesday Cliff Notes - Not Shocked by Billikens
Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 13654
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Well, Bruno, yet another tight line and a one point win for us in the Witchita State game, That follows a 1/2 point loss for not taking the Fairfield ML last night, and on to the next one. At days' end we had the right side in our Triple Dome GOW with the Billikens easily getting it done, and a bonus winner with the Shockers. Need those now and then, and we hope to have another one for you on Wednesday, or long term if you wish. When you are seeing things well you don't care as much about the line move. We made that St. Louis bet on Monday night. I'd be lying if I wasn't pissed about eventually not getting the best number, but that's because I work hard at eliminating mistakes and reading markets/line correctly. 

Dave's 3* Triple Dime Big Bet and 7/30 Day Packages

Kansas at Oklahoma State: Both teams tied w/K-State in the loss column, so this has really big implications. Most brackets have these two as #4 and #5 seeds, so a win here, especially by the Cowboys, can go a long, long, way. They could be a bit weary, both physically and mentally, after the OT win over the Sooners. However, they'd better be ready because they beat Kansas in Kansas this season, and very few teams do that. But, aside from a game at ISU later, they should be favored to win out, so winning here is even more important. Kansas also plays at ISU and at Baylor, who they beat soundly. Mental edge here probably goes to the home team, but Kansas does have the size and the experience advantage. Cowboys still a bit young, but they do get to the FT line, as does Kansas. Because the Jayhawks have had some turnover issues, I doubt I could take them on the road. And because Oklahoma State hasn't been a great offensive rebounding team, that may mean more fast break/transition baskets, and in what ought to be a close game I would lean to the over, as almost-too-easy as it looks. I do think the number gets bet up, so the sooner the better on that one, or, wait til very late and see what happens. This is a Kansas team that lost to TCU, and even given the spot they were in, losing SU in that one is tough for me to forget. They play TCU next, and if I were them I'd almost be thinking about beating the shit out of the Horned Frogs more than playing the Cowboys, so lean Oklahoma State here.

Colorado State at UNLV: OK, so NOW the Rebels are back in bettors favors and we've forgot all about the Rams, or so it seems. Highly unlikely I could fade a team that rebounds as well as CSU, and CSU is tied in the loss column with the Rebels. CSU beat the Rebels by five at home a month or so back in a game that really was fairly even (statistically), but they key thing was that the Rams were able to slow the game down. Clearly that's not what the Rebels want here. I probably want no part of this game, since the Rams simply don't play defense to create turnovers, and that's what they'll need to keep this a close game. If there's a total it will probably be over 140, which might tempt me to take the under. I simply don't expect CSU to buckle even if the Rebels play "their" game, and would lean to UNLV a bit but as I said a second ago, I cannot bet against the better coached team. 

Minnesota at Ohio State: Well, we were all over Iowa the other night after watching what they did to Penn State, and we loved Wisconsin over the Buckeyes, so we've been right on these teams recently. Now, both teams come in after brutal losses. Usually in that case I'd tend to go with the better coach, which IMO is none of the above. As I said last week, without Sullinger and other options Craft had last year, his numbers almost across the board are down this season. Both teams have big game in the near future, but Minnesota has six days off while OSU has Michigan State on Sunday. Both of these teams are likely #6 and #7 type seeds if the season were to end right now, so there're really no place to go but up, which would seemingly put more pressure on OSU given the preseason hype. Minnesota hasn't won on the road in conference since they beat Illinois almost six weeks ago, which is always tough for me to back, However, there's the chance they they simply couldn't play worse than they did against Iowa and are under valued here. Buckeyes only conference home loss was to Indiana. I suppose because the Gophers turn the ball over too much and are near the bottom of the conference in defending the perimeter, I'd have to lean Ohio State here, provided they can not allow Minnesota extra possessions, since the Gophers are the number one offensive rebounding team in the Conference. Ohio State just has more ways to win this game, but winning and covering are two different things. This could be one of those game where I take the OSU ML 1* and the Gophers plus the points 3*. Or something to that effect. Again, often times it's all about the number(s) and not so much who is playing that dictates what I might do personally.

Iowa State at Baylor: This is a big game if for no other reason than the fact that they are tied for fourth in the Conference, which obviously makes for a big advantage come Tournament time. Plus, neither team is a lock to get into the Big Dance. Many people smarter than me have them both as either last-in or last-out, so there's probably much more at stake here than a rematch of an ISU eight point win earlier this season. ISU still hasn't won a road conference game, but they do have a gimme coming up, so they can put all their eggs in this one basket, because it's quite likely the difference between and NCAA bid and the NIT. Baylor's only home loss was by three points to Oklahoma. What I don't really like about taking Baylor here is that they will play fast, which is exactly the type of game ISU wants. I'd feel much better about laying those points if the Bears were a slow-down team, and did not have the rematch at Oklahoma Saturday. ISU does have the experience factor going for them, and for as under sized as they are, are a much better rebounding team than one might think. To me, this game has the potential to be the public undoing of the day. 

Illinois State at Evansville: Well, for a while there E'ville were the cash machine. They lost a tough one to Creighton at home on Saturday, which was their first home loss (conference) this season, and they've got a chance to avenge an earlier loss to Illinois State. I do have to wonder how much emotion that Creighton loss sapped from them. Their simply not a great defensive team, and Illinois State has already proved they can win on the road, beating the aforementioned Jays. They themselves lost that tough one to Witchita State (this IS the time of year when good team simply find way to win) so this game is more about who rebounds mentally better. See coaching. I think I'd have to take Dan Muller. Illinois State is just a more complete team with some size. I don't like road teams, but with enough points I could be swayed. Because Evansville will want to slow this game down and keep it in the 60's, but Illinois State will want it faster and in the 70's, I do lean over if there is a total. Simpy because ISU has been able to force teams, on the road, to pick up the tempo. Again, see coaching. 

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Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

 

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Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
Posts: 36221
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Indeed, Dave.....a tight one with the Hosers, too....

Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
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Bruno Bets

Indeed, Dave.....a tight one with the Hosers, too....

I did lean Hoosiers. All but one of the early games within a possession. Didn't check the totals. Have almost no emotion left, lol.

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

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Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

Scottydog
Joined: 11/12/2011
Posts: 5435
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Dave, I watched that last game UNLV played against San Diego State and if Anthony Bennett had not hit two 3's and a 2 at the beginning of the 2nd half, SDSU would have easily won that game. UNLV won and all of the preseason hype about UNLV will fuel the backers and push this line up as the Rebels are the public darlings. But the reality is they are not a good shooting team 33%, not a particularly good shooting free throw shooting team 71%, and the players are still in-fighting for possessions or number of touches. I said in earlier posts that this is the most talented team in the MWC, but to use the Lakers as a comparison, there's just too many chiefs and not enough indians.

I'm looking to fade the Rebels in this game. They lack consistency and I think tonight is the night the get their come-upence. they've been skating on thin ice at home all year and I expect the disciplined team to win this contest by 7 - 10 points.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB7763455.00758.00
Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 13654
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Scottydog

Dave, I watched that last game UNLV played against San Diego State and if Anthony Bennett had not hit two 3's and a 2 at the beginning of the 2nd half, SDSU would have easily won that game. UNLV won and all of the preseason hype about UNLV will fuel the backers and push this line up as the Rebels are the public darlings. But the reality is they are not a good shooting team 33%, not a particularly good shooting free throw shooting team 71%, and the players are still in-fighting for possessions or number of touches. I said in earlier posts that this is the most talented team in the MWC, but to use the Lakers as a comparison, there's just too many chiefs and not enough indians.

I'm looking to fade the Rebels in this game. They lack consistency and I think tonight is the night the get their come-upence. they've been skating on thin ice at home all year and I expect the disciplined team to win this contest by 7 - 10 points.

Wouldn't bet against you there, sir. Nor that 12-0 totals streak you got going. Good stuff, as always.

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Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

Scottydog
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Posts: 5435
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Thanks Dave. It's always nice to be noticed even if it's just for 24 hours!

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB7763455.00758.00
Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 13654
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Scottydog

Thanks Dave. It's always nice to be noticed even if it's just for 24 hours!

Shoot, you can milk that streak forever. Six straight losses and claim 66%. You got this.

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

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Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 13654
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Here's the rest of my early leans for tonight, in rotation order, not in strength order.

Cleveland State

James Madison

South Florida

Minnesota

URI

Boise State

Wisconsin MW

Iowa State

Washington State

M'head State

The Citadel

Eastern Illinois

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

Dave's 30 Day All Access Package

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Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.

I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.

 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
Posts: 36221
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Thanks, Dave. I do like tonight's card. Get 'em!

Bryan Leonard
Joined: 09/02/2011
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Dave,

Unlike you I took the Iona ML in that Fairfield game at +145 instead of the +3. Short run BAAAD, long run Good. As they say them's the breaks.

Keep up the great work with this daily post.

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