With a small card today, I will try and look at a few of tomorrows' games. Perhaps we can catch the most beneficial lines?
Michigan @ Wisconsin ~ Tough match-up on a side, but a natural lean to the Under (5-0 last 5 at Wisky and 6-0 last 6 meetings). Over though is 16-4-2 in Michigan's last 22 Saturday games and that is a bit much to overlook. The underdog has fared quite well in this series lately going 6-1 ATS over the last few years. However, the Badgers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. They definitely rise to the competition at home. For reasons unknown, the Wolverines have performed very poorly in Saturday matinees this season (1-6 ATS last 7 Saturday games)? Badgers (as small chalk) in a high-scoring affair? Doesn't sound very logical, but........I was willing to give a couple, getting points is a bonus!
**Wisconsin +2½ (-115)
Wisconsin (+130) ~ Hate relying on FTs, but.....
Ole Miss @ Mizzou ~ Fun to watch. Of that I have no doubt. I certainly would expect a few points in this one. Off the top of my head I am thinking about a Mizzou first half and a Mississippi 2nd. As the Rebs are almost sure to catch at least a couple, I am looking their way. Taking the points, in any case. Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs a team with a winning % above .600. Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs a team with a winning SU record. That about sums it up, IMO. The Tigers just don't seem to have that killer instinct any longer. Unbeaten home record possibly in jeopardy. I don't think they have an answer for Henderson/Holloway. The Over will be worth a gander regardless of how high.
Mississippi +7½ (-120) ~ Certainly more than I expected, but I'll take it.
GT @ VT ~ In thinking ahead, I do believe this total will open on the low side. As much as I do not trust the Hokies, the 'Jackets' and their 0-5 road record are not a much better option. I don't know if there will be a side play on this, as neither team can really be counted on to produce. The Over will likely be the only play here, as I expect the game to finish in the 130-135 range (although their last meeting closed at 134.5, I think the venue may have it a tad lower). Their last two meetings have gone to OT with, in each case, the fave being at or near DD chalk. There should be some revenge for GT's loss at home as a 10 point favorite last month. Have to be the points here or nothing. Let's see what we can get?
Georgia Tech +½ (-110) 1st Half ~ I do like the revenge angle and the fact that GT seems to have made bigger strides since then.
Georgia Tech (-115)
S Illinois/Indiana State ~ While there is little doubt that the Sycamores will win....how high will the line be set? Unfortunately, this is another case of a team that plays down to their competition. Although they are generally a cover-machine, they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs a team with a losing SU record. This gives us some cause for concern. The fact that the Salukis are not a good ATS proposition offsets it a bit, but to what degree? The Over will certainly be worth some consideration, but SI is liable to take the air outta the ball at any given moment. Bad L/M....pass on the Sycs spread.
Hogs/Vandy ~ Make no mistake, the Razorbacks can only experience a letdown off their huge Gator upset. They are still 0-5 on the road and likely to be 0-6 after this one. The Under appears to be the way to go, although their history dictates the Over (being 11-2 in their last 11 meetings). Arkansas also has a bit of a history beating Vandy as an underdog. We'll see what the "Razor" has to say on this one? Hoped for an extra bucket, but believe the 'Dores win SU anyway.
Vanderbilt +1½ (-110)
Cowboys/'Horns ~ As good as Okie State has appeared at times, they have often appeared bewildered on the road with their 1-4 record. I do have to give them some props in that they have handled teams they should (Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs teams with a losing SU record). Having said that, they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs teams with a winning home record. Texas has bounced back well recently going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Looks like layin' a little wood on a Texas play.....depending on the line. Under a definite look-see.
Texas +4½ (-125) ~ Way off on this line, but I'll take it. Sprinkled the +155 ML.
Memphis +½ (-105) 1st Half ~ Still having a hard time buying the dog-tag on Memphis' 13 game winning streak?
Texas A&M +2½ (-110) ~ Looking to take the money A&M made me the other night to make some more. Which Aggies show up? Any team that wins at Rupp catching more than a bucket is worth the play, IMO.
TCU +7½ (-120) ~ I get the Frogs' letdown spot and all that, but they still have a tough defense. When did WV become an offensive juggernaut? Win yes, cover....not so sure?
SJ/UMass ~ Currently only looking at the Under, but given a handful I could likely be convinced to go with the dog. Home favorites have done exceptionally well in this match-up, though. Probably better left alone?
Florida State -4 (-110) 2nd Half (Bad call. Nothing going right) ~ They didn't shoot badly....just limited opportunities. Expect them to be in it at the end.
Pittsburgh +1½ (-110) ~ I haven't been a Bearcat believer this season and they have proven me wrong a couple of times. They are 0-6 ATS in their last home games, so with this line the Panthers may just win it.
**Richmond +4½ (-120) ~ Billies with very tough D. Spiders took a run at 'em, but came up short....
Richmond (+165) ½ unit ~ This is a team that has beaten Charlotte (by 20), VCU and Xavier in their last 3 home games. Great value, IMO.
New Jersey Devils (+105) ~ At home, I have to take the value.
Anaheim Ducks (+160) ~ Too much value to pass up.
Toronto Maple Leafs (+145) ~ Without living in one of these cities it is difficult to understand just how fierce this rivalry is. It is akin to the Yanks/Red Sox in every way.
There are a couple of totals in the Picks' section.
Cleveland Cavaliers +5½ (-115)
Milwaukee Bucks Under 105½ (-110)
Golden State Warriors +6½ (-120)
Golden State Warriors/Dallas Mavericks Over 106 (-110) 1st Half
best of luck buddy
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Nice. Agree w.that under. My only concern would be if it IS a close game, FT's at the end can screw up a good bet. But, for sure the pace will be slower than VMI versus Asheville!
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NC/VMI may cover that B10 gameline in the 2nd half....LOL
Good luck Bruno
Nice analysis Bruno. Love your thoughts on Missouri/Mississippi. Mizzou has been beating up the bottom feeders of this league, but they aren't beating anyone that's any good. I'll be taking a hard look at that game.
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Good luck bruno.
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Great work as always here B.
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Thanks, guys. Feels a bit strange lookin' this far ahead?
Bruno, I'm saying the oddsmakers chalk hogs (-5) and the entire world jumps on the pigs expecting bacon. I see 72% of wagers coming in on hogs, line holds steady, and instead of getting the bacon, become the bacon once again w/ horrid 3 pt. shooting, missed one & one opps and the such. The game will look like they are trying to machete their way out of the jungle. Under definately worth a look.
...........but then again I have become jaded & definately cumbersome to myself.
Insanity: Doing the same thing and expecting different results.
We shall see.
NFL: 17-24-1 (-17.457)