Many say this game will come down to the post players but I disagree as it will come down to the PG play. Duke lost Rivers and now relies on Curry and Thornton to handle the ball. UK is in a similar situation with losing the starting ball handler, but they are in an even deeper crisis not having Ryan Harrow travel to Catlanta.
The UK lineup has not bet announced yet (even to the local UK bloggers), but my UK sources say Archie Goodwin will be the PG with Jarrod Polson off the bench and Julius Mays at SG. Calipari will switch guys back and forth to see who he wants given the flow of the game and how they matchup with Duke. Calipari knows he has to push the tempo of the game to give his players an advantage. He cannot win a half court game tonight vs this Duke team.
I mention how this game will not rely on the post players simply because it takes the PG's to run an efficient offense for both teams. Duke needs to play through Plumlee and when he gets double teamed he throws it out for one of the awaiting perimeter shooters. UK has been sloppy on the perimeter defense and I think the 3s will go in tonight for Duke. UK's guards and forwards are more athletic and should challenge Duke's players forcing them to make decisions quicker. Look for open Duke players when UK double teams or pressures another man down low. Open guys means easy looks means more baskets.
I can see this being an uptempo game. I think this is a really hard game to project a winner when you have a very atheltic and talented UK team vs a veteran Duke team. I do see this game going above the posted total. I will be playing the over 139 tonight.
1unit over 139 and I will make a small .25 unit wager on UK ml +165 as well
Univ. of KY alum
Twitter - @clkelly109