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Why is Duke?

CBB
Thread Starter Why is Duke?
MuttieP
Joined: 05/29/2012
Posts: 302
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Why is Duke -3 to a Superior athletic Kentucky team against a Duke team that seems to be down this year? 

razorback fan
Joined: 10/24/2007
Posts: 9932
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Kentucky:  Offense 116.6 (2nd), Defense 90.1 (14th)

Duke:  Offense  114.5 (7th), Defense 91.9 (26th)

This is Kenpom's calculation of "all things" offense and defense.  As you alluded, 'Tucky is slightly better team on both ends of the ball and line, imo, should be reversed to Kentucky (-3).

Lots of youngblood w/ Calipari, but cats known to get it up for big games.  Early stubble w/ Mary has left some doubts about is this team waaaay over-rated; but #'s do speak differently.

OTOH, lots of love for coach K and good b-devil team; and ALWAYS the best coached and smart bright kids on the block.

Neutral, guess you can say even stephen - as really just one possession; but gree w/ you bout tucky - but not an alarm sounding difference.

BTW, I don't cap BB; but I look for this line to inch down a touch by gametime.

Hopefully, someone is better quipped to answer your question and knows of an injury of lifted suspension that could tilt this line?  Otherwise, I TOO would be interested to see how Duke is favored here, b/c the #'s suggest cats by 3.  hmmmmmmmmm.......

GL

 

duke4
Joined: 01/21/2008
Posts: 4083
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Not having Dawkins for Duke is going to be a big loss. This team doesn't have that guy that takes it to the hoop and gets is own shot (Irving, Rivers), and will rely heavily once again on the 3 ball. Plumlee will have to control the boards and stay out of foul trouble, and hopefully his FT shooting has improved, because he will there a lot. I think Kentucky's athletic team could cause big problems, and I think this line drops. Even though it's a small #, I lean Kentucky but not enough to make a play.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB4433057.14785.00
MLB192206648.24-1222.00
NBA4747350.00-474.00
NFL7456456.921104.00
Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
Posts: 36221
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Name recognition shouldn't be good for 6 points. I personally believe the wrong team is favored here, as well. I guess we'll see.....

winthorpeiii
Joined: 09/03/2012
Posts: 144
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I might need to start Duke Fading Season tonight.  Fading public teams like Duke is often the only way I cash tickets.  

ChrisK109
Joined: 08/27/2009
Posts: 12071
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Sure Duke is a public team, but UK is more a public team. Vegas lines are ALWAYS inflated for UK where they'll be favored by 23 and only win by 18. Also I see that Duke returns 4 core players all starting (Thornton, Kelly, Plumlee, Curry). UK returns 1 starter (Wiltjer...who may not even start some games). UK is the more talented team but in terms of TEAM basketball, UK is not ready yet. Duke has the advantage and that is why they should be favored here this early in the season. Remember this is a brand new team and Calipari has yet to figure the team out yet and know what his players are made of, let alone who he should have starting. Notice in the Maryland game Cal had WSC and Noel on court at same time. He wont always do that.

Another key note is that Ryan Harrow (starting pg) has a mystery illness (flu like symptoms) and got blood work done to figure it out. He did not even make the trip to CATlanta.

Sidenote - in first game I suggested a play on Maryland +10.5 (lined originally opened +16.5) because I know how this UK team is and vs a veteran playing team they will struggle since they turned the ball over against D3 schools too many times in exhibition games.

UK would have blown out Maryland if this was the end of the season and the team knew what spots to be in on certain defensive schemes.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB3428454.84-4.00
the Akron Hammer
Joined: 11/12/2009
Posts: 647
Pro Draft Prospect
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ill make a prediction right now....duke will kill them i expect at least a 10point win by duke....matchups alone work in dukes factor here.....people forget this is a big game for mike k....he is going to drop a hammer against ky.....the most important part of this game is the low post and defensively ky has no idea what to do now they will be better later in the year but i expect a ground and pound approach with two leget threats deap for 3 and inside game

You can sheer a sheep many times....but can only skin him once (the sheep refer to Joe Public)
razorback fan
Joined: 10/24/2007
Posts: 9932
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probably one of the worst games to bet on today; both teams need some time to see what they got........

 

soko711
Joined: 01/18/2008
Posts: 724
All American
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Duke has 4 starters returning??  They should Know what they have??

Harry Begg
Joined: 12/17/2010
Posts: 10696
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Coach K. is second to none in the U.S. If Duke plays 75% up to their potential, Coack K. will outcoach the recruiter. Kentucky's coach is a great recruiter, but can't coach a 8th grade team. Simply put, this year, Kentucky has no chemistry! Just a new group of real good Mc Donald's All Americans. They need time to develop a chemistry. DUKE WINS!

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