SECRETS TO MARCH MADNESS SUCCESS: Secret #3
(c) Robert Crowne & Assoc., March 26, 2012
P:lease Note; The strength of schedule adjustments and methodology below is proprietary and are published for use by individuals for personal handicapping purposes only. Any unauthorized use of the information below will result in legal action.
Secret #1: Wait for Late Information. READ HERE http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/6/t/255056.aspx
Secret #2: Be More Selective Than Normal READ HERE http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/6/t/255056.aspx
SECRET #3: BE SURE TO COMPARE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
In the tournaments, teams from different conferences are matched. That makes it much more difficult to compare statistics. A team that can hit 48% from the floor in their own conference might only be the equivalent of team that hits 41% in a much stronger conference.
When comparing the strength of a team's competition, don't compare the conferences, compare the opponents of each individual team. Many teams from a weak ocnference will have played Top 25 teams in their non-conference play. By the same token, teams from a strong conference may have scheduled a whole bunch of weaklings in their non-conference games.
When I handicap, I consider all college teams to be in parity unless they have been listed in the AP Top 25 or stand in the BOTTOM 25 or are in the 1AA. Then I balance the top teams played against the bottom and 1AA teams played. A bottom team cancels out the effect of a top team. The net after the balance determines the adjustment.
The amount of the adjustment determines the number of games played. Playing to top 25 teams is more significant in statistics involving only 6 games than in statistics involving 36 games
In the NCAA tournament, with most teams having 34+ games under their belt, I consider each net top team played to be worth +1/2 point, and each net bottom or 1AA team to be -1/2 point. The maximum adjustment is 12 points.
The lines in the NCAA often far overestimate the value of a astong conference and underestimate the value of a weak conference. By looking at the total schedule instead of only the conference, and by using the suggested values, you find you can make some very accurate predictions and uncover some big over or under valuations in the spreads.
Tonight I have my CBI BEST SIDE OF THE YEAR. It carries a 3-STAR rating. Part of the handicap involved the topic of this post -- an adjustment for strength of schedule. You get the pick and all the reasons supporting it so you can bet it with confidence. CLICK HERE.
My March Mandess side selections here at Pregame are a PERFECT 100% this season. ALL my March Madness plays here this year have won 71%. My March Madness selections have won 63% for the past two years. All CBB 3-STAR Side Plays are 12-2 (86%) for 2012.
Rob Crowne: Best Bets | Free Picks | BlogsHandicapping at the next levelPick Virgins: $25 FREE! Buyers: 10% rebate!