NCAA INSIDE INFORMATION PLAY

thanks

LOL !

If you didn't know Marshall wasn't playing tonight you live under a log.  It would have been inside info HAD he played tonight because everything I read/heard/saw had him out.  You never fail to amuse me Rob.  I'll be rooting Ohio in with you regardless.    

SKing24

If you didn't know Marshall wasn't playing tonight you live under a log.  It would have been inside info HAD he played tonight because everything I read/heard/saw had him out.  You never fail to amuse me Rob.  I'll be rooting Ohio in with you regardless.    

SKing, have you crawled back out of your troll hole again?   Don't you ever tire of embarrassing yourself?  I thought you promised not to bother me anymore with your nonsense.  You must be one of those poeple who gets off on being humiliated, looking ridiculous, and being beaten up. I can't find any other reason why you do what you do around here.

So everyone has some background, you are Pregame's resident troll.  You spend all day every day in your troll hole under the bridge out there in Denver, placing entries in the Pregame contests hoping someday you will get liucky and your ship will come in.  Every two months or so you pop your head out to make trouble by starting arguments with people or cirticizing the cappers with lies.  The only positive contribution anyone has ever been able to find from you was a thread giving the ridiculous recommendation that "to attack the market" everyone should bet your recommended big favorite in a money line parlay, hooking it up with any other big favorite at random.  Even the rankest amateur should recognize such advice is terrible.  

Nevertheless,, having demonstrated that you are one of the people who could most use the  help that can be obtained at Pregame, you use your time to belittle others and stir up trouble instead.  Our last encounter ended with you saying, "Wow, you touched a sore spot,"  and "I won't bother you anymore," after you were thoroughly embarrassed.  Naturally, your promise not to bother me was no more truthful and reliable than anything else you ever post.

Everyone who purchased my Information Play got exactly what they paid for -- accurate information about both schools in the Ohio vs. North Carolina matchup, and a winning pick.  I don't hear anyone who bought the package complaining.  It is amazing that you would try to criticize good information that backed up a winning play.  But I have found thet your lack of cleverness is surpassed only by your lack of truthfulness.  Criticism, even if it is the only thing you do around here, would be fine if it was valid and based on fact.  But you simply try to stir up trouble by making up facts..

I advertised two pieces of information --  Inside Information, and information that anyone could get but most people don't have. 

The inside information was NOT that Kendall Marshall wouldn't play.  The inside information dealt with Ohio's preparation for the game, and stated unequivocally that coach John Groce's statements to the press about that preparation were simply an intentional smoke screen. 

The second piece of information that, although not inside information, was information that  few people possessed, consisted of an analysis of Kendall Marshall's situation provided to me by an orthopaedic surgeon.  That analysis indicated that NC coach Roy Williams was not being completely accurate and truthful when listing Kenall Marshall's condition as merely "questionable" and saying Marshall's status was "unsure" alll the way to 10 minutes before the game.  

The only facts available publicly to everyone was that Marshall had a wrist injury and was operated on last Sunday.  That might allow a guess that he wouldn't play, were it not for the news that Marshall's cast had been removed combined with the statements of the NC coach and the Ohio coach.   

Making a bet based only on the above available information would be one of the biggest types of mistakes that amateurs, such as yourself, often make.  Such a bet would be strictly a gamble based on a guess as to the answer to a huge question in the game.  You mght as well have simply flipped a coin.  Professionls would pass the game unless and until they have solid information to back up a bet, or unless they believe the question won't matter in the game.  In this case, any belief that Kenall Marshall does not matter would, in my opinion, have been a gross handicapping error.    

My package provided the information necessary to make a bet.  That done, there still had to be an accurate analysis of whether, wtihout Marshall in the game, NC could still cover the spread.  My analysis of the game result was also correct.

You, of course, claim to have had the information necessary based on your own alleged information sources, which you claim were so plentiful that everyone should have known unless they "live under a rock."  If you found sufficient reliable information somewhere, congratulations.  Unfortunately, as you'll see below, your poor reputation for credibility does not allow me to simply take your word for it.  

You are not even creative enough to have changed your act from the last picture  You are once again making the false claim that my information provided nothing that everybody did not already know for sure.  Last time, despite your claim, it became clear that even you did not have the information you claimed, after the fact, that everybody had.  This time, if you had the information, as you claim, perhaps you can explain why you failed to make Ohio one of your contest picks, and why Ohio doesn't appear on your 'MY PICKS" page.  Maybe you can explain why, instead of using up time in your empty life going to the handicapper's pages to read their analyses after the game for the sole purpose of finding something you may be able to use to belittle them, you didn't use that time to post your informatioin to help out others here in the forum. 

Instead you spent time on Friday criticizing Pregame in one thread, and making your groundless insults here.  Posting reliable  information about things such as Kendall Marshall's injury would make you a popular guy around here.  Being a troll will not.  Being a troll is merely a self-absorbed way for an immature person to amuse himself.   

Just like last time, you say that " . . everything [you] read/heard/saw had [Marshall] out."  Really?  I'd like to believe you, but, as I said, your poor reputation for truthfulness does not allow me to just take your word.  I'm sure you understand.  So while you explain why you don't appear to have had any pick on Ohio despite all your alleged information, and why you didn't post your information in the forum, perhaps you might post an url or two pointing to any reliable and authoritative source where you read at ;least 3 hopurs before the game that Kendall Marshall would be out, and where you read that Ohio coach John Groce was not preparing for Marchall to be in the game as Groce claimed.  I'm sure we would all appreciate knowing such sources for future reference.  Do something positive for once and provide them.   

 If the information was so readily available, providing references should be easy.  Despite your claims, below are just a few of the people who seem to have been "living under a log" and in need of a list of the places where you read/saw/heard your reliable information:

1.  Brandon Watson writing for Pregame Sports News.  Brandon reported, " North Carolina likely will be without a 100% point guard in Kendall Marshall, but some reports are saying that he will play.'  Note that Brandon does not say Marshall will likely be out, but rather that he will likely "not be 100%,"  There's a huge difference.  That he would not be 100% was what was obvious in advance.  That he wouldn't be able to play or would be completely ineffective if he tried to play was what was not known.  Nothing else was written on the subject here at Pregame.

2.  ESPN reporter Sarah Philipps who suggested that people follow Kenall Marshall in twitter  for information on his status. (Googfe it)

3.  The Associated Press which reported the statement of NC coach Williams that "Kenall Marshall's status is unclear." (You can easily Google that too).

4.  North Carolina's coaching staff, which listed Marshall as "questionable" rather than "out" or "doubtful," and Head Coach Williams who kept claiming all the way to game time that he wasn't sure if Marshall would play..

5.  Ohio Coach John Groce who, speaking of Kendall Marshall said, "We have planned as if he's going to play . . . ."    

6.  The linemakers who set a line of -10.5 on North Carolina.  If the bookmakers knew Marshall was definitely out, the line would have been around 6.

It appears to have been pretty crowded under that log.        

 If you can't provide the urls requested, I will simply assume you have lied again (what a surprise that would be).  In such case, I suggest that you slink back to your burrow as quickly as possible lest you be discovered and someone decide that the Pregame Forum would be better off without a resident troll who consistently foments trouble and contributes nothing. 

So, is he playing tomorrow?

This stops now.

SKing24 . . . if you believe Rob has done something wrong, please state exactly what that is.

Otherwise, let's focus on helping each other win . . .

Lol, I was bored and read this thread, you kind of lend credibility to guys like this when you take the time to respond with 3 page answers.  No way the line would have been anywhere near 6 with Marshall out though - your saying he's worth 5 points?  That implies if North Carolina played at Ohio without Kendall  they would be favored by 1.  I also agree that most people knew Marshall wouldn't play, obviously the press loved the story and intrigue, but the comments all week from the players made it pretty clear he woudn't play.  The line also suggested he wouldn't play in my opinion since I think it would have been 14.5 if he was healthy and it went off at 11. 

Bruno Bets

So, is he playing tomorrow?

Nope.  The orthopaedic surgeon said it is unlikely that he will be back before the tournament ends.  Players in other positions might be able to return after 2 weeks or so depending on their healing abilities, but the point guard position requires much too much use and flexibility of both hands and writs.  Further,as I said in yesteday's information package, Marshall has NBA prospects.  According to the Dr., his wrist could be injured further if he tries to play.  The coaches won't risk a permanent disability by playing him and furher injuring the wrist.  If that happened, he could sue the school for his potential future earnings. 

If you did see him placed in the game, he would nevertheless be completely ineffective and so a worse job than the freshman back up.  .   

brkatz

Lol, I was bored and read this thread, you kind of lend credibility to guys like this when you take the time to respond with 3 page answers.  No way the line would have been anywhere near 6 with Marshall out though - your saying he's worth 5 points?  That implies if North Carolina played at Ohio without Kendall  they would be favored by 1.  I also agree that most people knew Marshall wouldn't play, obviously the press loved the story and intrigue, but the comments all week from the players made it pretty clear he woudn't play.  The line also suggested he wouldn't play in my opinion since I think it would have been 14.5 if he was healthy and it went off at 11. 

I agree that the line might have been somewhat higher if the books knew for sure that he would play.  The line reflected a general belief that he would not be 100%.  Nevertheless the line would have been lower if the books knew for sure he was out. The line, in my opinion, did not reflect an assumption that Marshall would not be able to play at all.  The books make lines to split public opinion, and despite what SKing claims, or you may have known because you are smarter, more professional and have more time to devote than most to what the players were saying, the general public was betting as if Marshall would play.  My Information Package was aimed at providing information from sources that nobdoy else had that made whatever else could be gleaned more certain, and then anlyzing the game based on that certainty. 

Other players are notoriously inaccurate in their assessment as to the condition of a fellow player.  Even the player himself is often inaccurate as to his assessment as to whether or not he will play.  When you hire a painter to paint your house, you don't pay him because you can't dip a brush in paint yourself.  You hire him because his skill and knowledge of paint adss value, and because you don't have the time or inclination to paint the house yourself.  The same is true with paying for information.  I doubt anyone had the same information.  Every piece of information adds certainty to a play and removes risk.  Further, some people could not accurately assess the value of the information they have. 

At the beginning, in the days before the Internet when I only sold information with no picks, I had several professional handicapping services as clients.  They were clients because even the pros can never have too much confirming information.  I, too, have paid for information from other services.          

In the trounaments, much of the line is based on public betting tendencies.  The line started at -10.5 adn moved up as high as --11 (-115) despite Marshall possibly being out.  This line move most likely resulted from the public tendency to both bet the favorite and bet the ranked team over an unranked team.  Shortly before the game, when the actual status of Marshall was announced on TV, the books were inundated with enough Ohio money to move the line back down to -10.5 (-105), despite the rather large pool already bet on the game, and the fact that there was an imbalance of favorite action as indicated by the prior line move up. 

That late move down is the equivalent to about a 5% disadvantage for Ohio bettors.  Given the huge volume of public money bet and already bet, it is not likely that the information 10 minutes before game time would cause the line to move down more than that.  The wise guys don't control the line at tournament time.  The public controls it, and all any late money on Ohio did was balance out the money that had already pushed the line on NC up and that was still coming in on NC. 

I can't agree with your anlaysis of the line based on where it would have been if Marahall were kinown for sure to be out.  Because of the way lines are made, with all due respect, I do not believe the comparison that you made you made regarding the line if Ohio were at home to ba an accurate assessment.  . 

First, the differential to a home court is not from road ot home, but from neutral to home.  The standard adjustment by the public and therefore by the line makers for a move from neutral to home change is 3 points.  That is not an accurate adjustment in all cases, but nevertheless it is the way the line is made.  Thus, if Ohio were at home and Marshall were questionable as he was for last night's game, he line would be somewhere around NC favored by 6 to 7 points.  If Marshall were definitely known to  be out, it is my opinion that the line would be set about 3 points below the 6 on a neutral court, or at NC -3 with the public eventually moving it up to -3.5 or -4.  I do not think that Ohio would be favored by one, although from a handicapping standponit they should be.

In fact, on a handicapping basis, as I said in the package, NC handicapped to exactly -10.5 with Marshall in the game. The line would have been set somewhat higher because it is made to split public opinon, and as we saw, the public was willinng to send it in on NC without knowning the status of Marshall. 

 I believe in my package write up I said that without Marshall in the lineup Ohio could win the game straight up. 
That means I valued the lack of Marshall and the lack of depth of NC at the positon to  be as high as possibly 10-11 points.  Ohio came very close to winning outright and took NC to OT.  Do I think that the linemakers would ever make a 10 point adjustment for Marshall's absence?  Absoutely not.  The linemakers' concern is not picking the game result accurately.  They have to have to concern themselves with public tendencies and misconceptions in order to balance action.  That's the only reason why I can ever gain an advantage betting sports.  Do I, however, believe that they would make the line -6 or -7 without Marshall, and on a neutral court?  Absolutely. 

The value of Marshall as a star point guard directing his team is not the only basis for adjustment.  The fact that NC lacks experienced depth at the position, and the fact that the actual replacement for Marshall was unknown are also negative factors to  be evaluated.  Thus, if the linemaker might otherwise consider Marshall worth 3 points, it is not out of the question that he considers the inexperienced freshman replacement to be another 1.5 point disadvantage.  A move down from 10.5 to 6 is only 4.5 half ponts.  That's less than two scores in an entire game.  That's not much to value a star point quard when comparing him to a freshman who has never started.  Marshall is responsible not just for his own ability to score, but for the ability of the other players to score. 

So, yes, I do believe that if the linemakers had sure info early the line would have been aournd 6 with Marshall out and if Ohio was at home the line would have been around 3.  But it really doesn't matter.  The point is that a line of -10.5 or -11 cannot, in my opinion, be said to accurately reflect an opinon that Marshall would definitely be out, bur rather an opinion, based on the actual  level of knowledge, that Marshall was questionable.  It was a line that was a balancing act between what it would have been with him in and what it would be if he were out..