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Auburn Point-Shaving Examined . . .

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Thread Starter Auburn Point-Shaving Examined . . .
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
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Data analysis on the two specific games mentioned in the Auburn point-shaving allegations:

Corrupt games typically share two tendencies . . .

1) There is lopsided betting action AGAINST the team paid to lose.

One way to measure betting action is the percentage of bets made on each team.

1/25/2012
Arkansas 66% | Auburn 34%

2/7/2012
Alabama 36% | Auburn 64%

Conclusion: Auburn received less bets in one game, and more bets in the other  – by about the same margin.

A second way to measure lopsided action is movement in the odds. When one team receives a disproportionate amount of action, the odds for that team are made worse (to discourage additional action).

1/25/12
Arkansas started as a 10.5-point favorite over Auburn, and closed as a 9.5-point favorite (implying lopsided action ON Auburn).

2/7/12
Alabama started as a 5-point favorite over Auburn, and closed as a 5-point favorite (implying even action).

Conclusion: Neither game had lopsided action against Auburn  – and one game had exactly the opposite (i.e., lopsided action ON Auburn)

Second tendency of corrupt games . . .

2) The team paid to lose actually loses the game against the Vegas spread.

1/25/12
Betting against Auburn (and on Arkansas) LOST vs. the Vegas spread.

2/7/12
Betting against Auburn (and on Alabama) WON vs. the Vegas spread.

Conclusion: 1-1 record would have resulted in any point-shavers LOSING money overall (after accounting for sportsbook commissions)  

RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: “Las Vegas data on the two specific games named in the Auburn investigation is inconsistent with point-shaving”

As an example of data consistent with point-shaving, consider the notorious case of Tim Donaghy (as reported by Pregame.com at the time):

The first 15 games of the 2006-07 NBA season refereed by Tim Donaghy that had lopsided enough betting to move the point spread by at least 1.5 points were UNDEFEATED against Las Vegas - meaning that the big money gamblers won a perfect 15 of 15 times on his games. The odds of that happening randomly were 32,767 to 1.

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Monday: 44 Vegas Trends, Stats, and Handicapping Tips for Monday's NFL Games

Toofdoc
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RJ we are talking about Auburn and the "point shaving" resulted in the purchase of 1 mobile home, 6 cans of snuff, and a 12 pack of Natty light. This will not register in Vegas.  Roll TIde!

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Doughboy
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Whether the motive is greed or debt, I'm surprised this isn't discovered more often since

   all that's needed is a laptop and a willing accomplice back at the dorm.

                                   Remember this?              

Silman gets 46 months for his part in ASU point-shaving scandal

 Click here for more on this story

Posted: Tuesday June 30, 1998 08:34 PM

 

PHOENIX (AP) -- The alleged mastermind of Arizona State's basketball point-shaving scandal was sentenced Tuesday to 46 months in prison, a tougher sentence than the government had sought.

Prosecutors had recommended that Benny Silman, 27, receive a 42-month sentence for rigging and gambling on the outcome of basketball games during the 1994 season, when he was an ASU student.

U.S. District Court Judge Robert Broomfield justified the harsher punishment by saying the scandal could discourage poor children from trying to succeed in sports and improve their lives.

"The gambling here went beyond just yourself. It affects a lot of us," he said.

Silman entered a plea agreement with prosecutors in April, admitting five counts of sports bribery.

"Through this all I think I've realized I was addicted to a lifestyle taken over by drug use, alcohol abuse and gambling," he said.

Silman admitted bribing Stevin "Hedake" Smith and Isaac Burton to miss shots during the 1994 season so he and other gamblers could beat the projected point spread in four games.

Smith and Burton pleaded guilty to their role in the scheme in December. Joseph Gagliano, 29, a Phoenix investment adviser, also pleaded guilty, as did alleged bookmakers Dominic Mangiamele, 61, of Mount Prospect, Illinois, and his son, Joseph Mangiamele , 36, of Arlington Heights, Illinois.

Silman is the first of the defendants to be sentenced. Assistant U.S. Attorney Joe Lodge said the others would likely receive reduced sentences because they cooperated with investigators.

"I think 46 months in prison sends a message to the next would-be campus 'bookkeeper,'" he said.

Lodge said Silman would likely serve almost all of his prison sentence. He refused to say whether prosecutors were investigating other possible suspects.

Neither Silman, of North Hollywood, California, nor his lawyer, David Chenoff, would comment after the sentencing.

At Chenoff's request, Broomfield agreed to recommend that Silman serve his sentence at a federal minimum-security prison camp in Southern California. Broomfield also agreed to request that Silman be allowed to participate in a 500-hour drug program, and ordered him to get counseling for his gambling addiction.

The Mangiameles, Smith and Burton are scheduled for sentencing September 28; Gagliano's sentencing is scheduled for September 14.

The alleged conspirators placed more than 61 bets totaling $506,000 on the basketball games in what the FBI said was a major sports gambling scandal.

A federal grand jury returned a 72-count indictment in December against the Mangiameles, Silman and Gagliano, accusing them of sports bribery, money laundering and racketeering.

Smith, the Sun Devils' No. 2 all-time leading scorer, agreed to fix the four games for $20,000 a game, in part to erase a reported $10,000 gambling debt to Silman, according to Smith and Silman's plea agreements. Smith also admitted to recruiting Burton to take part in the scheme; Burton was paid $4,300 for helping fix two games.

 



[edited by: Doughboy at 12:25 AM (GMT -8) on Fri, Mar 9 2012]

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

                       

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Johnny Detroit
Joined: 06/21/2006
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Inspector RJ :)

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faultless3003
Joined: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6767
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Hell i think every pick i lose somebodys point shavin. hahaha

RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15692
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Just finished a spot on the Doug Gottlieb Show (w/ guest host @LindaCohn) talking Auburn point-shaving allegations.

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Monday: 44 Vegas Trends, Stats, and Handicapping Tips for Monday's NFL Games

StatLabSports
Joined: 02/24/2011
Posts: 859
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RJ_Bell
RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: “Las Vegas data on the two specific games named in the Auburn investigation is inconsistent with point-shaving”

I agree, but I did want to add that just because the players were not successful in the "execution" of point shaving, does not infer that it was not attempted.  I'm sure the whole story will be interesting either way....I actually hope its false...

Waiting patiently for Baseball....

Dave Basinger

On Twitter @StatLabSports

 

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