CBB Saturday...Late Play Added!!!

Im glad this whole week wasn't Groundhog Week. I'd hate to have to replay it over and over again. It has been bad and i apologize to my followers, but I will bounce back.

 

TOP PLAYS

5 UNIT PLAY

Creighton/ Wichita State Under 147.5: Both of these teams can score plenty of points and I get that, but these two teams also know how to play some defense as well. Wichita State did allow 93 points to Drake in an OT game recently, but in their last 10 games they have allowed more than 6 points just 1 other time, while allowing 65 points or less in 5 of those games. For the year the Shockers have allowed just 62.9 ppg (75th) on 39.8% shooting (40th). The Blue Jays do come in as the nation's leader in FG% offense as they have hit 50.8% of their shots overall and 43.6% from long range (3rd), but they come in struggling a bit as they have hit just 41.2% of their shots in their last 2 games and they are coming off a game in which they were just 4-22 from long range vs a very bad Evansville defense. Getting that 3 point shooting going in this one will not be that easy as the Shockers are 35th in the nation defending the 3 (30.8%). Wichita does average 77.9 ppg overall and 76.7 ppg in the MVC, but just 70.8 ppg in their last 4 MVC road games (Regulation Only). Creighton is not all about offense as they have played pretty well defensively of late, allowing just 63.5 ppg in their last 6 games overall and 60.7 ppg in their last 3 at home. The final nail in nthe coffin for this one is the fact that not 1 of the last 10 in this series has put up more than 135 points in a game, while those 10 games have averaged just 126.9 ppg. Earlier these  teams had an OU line of a149.5 and just 129 points were scored in that one. I expect more of the same here. This is a HUGE game for bothj teams ands they may comeout a mbit tight. Both can score but this game will be all about the defenses. 

 

4 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY 

Montana State/ Northern Colorado Under 147.5: Montana State did have a high scoring game in their last game vs Sacramento State (162 points), but their previous 5 road games have all put up less than 147 points, with an average of 131.2 ppg being scored over those games.  For Norther Colorado they have been involved in higher scoring games at home than on the road as their home games have averaged 145.1 ppg, but in their last 3 at home games that number has dropped to 139.7 ppg. N. Colorado has allowed 75.2 ppg at home on the year, but the Bobcats have only averaged 63.4 ppg on the road. The Bears have averaged 69.9 ppg at home on the year, but their scoring has been down a bit of late as they have averaged just 65 ppg in their last 2 at home, while in their last 4 overall they have averaged just 68.5 ppg and one of those games went to OT. The Bobcats Big Sky games have averaged 143 ppg, with 1 OT game, while the Bears Big Sky games have put up 144 ppg, with 2 OT games and both numbers put us under this total. The pace may be pushed in this one a bit, but I feel that both teams will not be able to score enough for this one to go over the Total. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Under - in all games where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points  in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 PPG) if the road team has trailed their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half. This play is 38-12 since 1997.  

Auburn +8 over OLE MISS:  The Tigers have been an inconsistent team this year, but I still believe this is ma good spot to back them.For the Most part the Tigers have played good defense this year as they have allowed just 64.7 ppg (113th) on 40.6% shooting (63rd), while in the SEC they have allowed 64.8 ppg on 40.4 % shooting. Auburn ghas had some problems at the offensive end this year as they have averaged 64 ppg overall and just 57.7 ppg in the SEC. They should be able to get their fair share of points in this one vs an Ole Miss team that has allowed 67.7 ppg in SEC play this year and 65.6 ppg in their last 5. Ole Miss on offense has been average at best as they have averaged just 65.3 ppg in SEC play so far, while putting up just 63.8 ppg in their last 5 overall. Auburn has surprised at times this year and I believe they have the defense to keep this one close. Let us also note that Ole Miss hasn't won an SEC home game by more than 8 points and the first meeting between these teams went to double OT. This game should be close through out. 

 

3 UNIT PLAYS

Uconn +11 over SYRACUSE: Google News Play.  Im gonna look to the Huskies in this one. Despite all their recent struggles they still are a very talented team, but now you can add desperation to the mix as well. Thewy may not be scoring that much right now, but the Cuse have still given up 62.4 ppg in their last 5 games overall. The Orange are 16-0 at home on the year, but in their ;last 5 Big East home games they have just 1 win over 10 points (23 vs Providence), while allowing 61.2 ppg over that stretch. We know the Cuse can score (77.6 ppg) and that Uconn gave up 80 points in their last game (Louisville), but this is still a team that has played excellent defense of late as they have allowed just 58.8 ppg on 38.6 % shooting in their last 5 games, while overall they are 4th in the nation in FG% defense (37.1%). I expect that Uconn will lean on their defense more in this game, while their offense puts up just enough points to keep this one close. KEY TREND---SYRACUSE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers since 1997.

Maryland +15.5 over DUKE:  Can the Blue Devils really be up for this one after their monster win in Chapel Hill the other night? I don't think so, but even if they were i'm not sure they would cover this number.  Maryland is just 4-5 in the ACC but they have played very well of late as they won in Clemson the other night, only lost by 9 to Carolina and went to Miami and took the Canes to OT before losing by 4.  For Duke, as strange as this may be to say they have struggled a bit at home in the ACC. Overall Duke is 10-2 and have outscored their opponents by 16.3 ppg at Cameron Indoor, but in ACC play they have gon just 2-2 and have outscored those teams by just 8 ppg. These teams last faced off at Maryland, back in January and the Terps were down by just 3 at the half, and Duke needed a late run to finally win by 13. Duke has just one ACC win higher than 15 points (Wake Forest) and they are in a huge letdown spot so I'll grab the generous points with a Maryland team that can keep it close. KEY TREND--- DUKE is 0-9 ATS in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last 2 seasons. 

Clemson/ Wake Forest Over 131:  The Wake Forest defensive play should really aid us in getting this over as they come in allowing 73.8 ppg in their last 5 games, and 71.7 ppg in ACC play. Their offense has not been solid this year as they have averaged just 59.1 ppg in ACC play and 57 ppg in their last 5 overall, but they have also average 66 ppg at home and will be facing a Clemson team that has allowed 65 ppg in ACC play and 69.3 ppg in their last 3 ACC road games. They can be scored upon and I believe Wake will breakout a bit and put some points up on them in this one. Clemson is not a faced paced team by any stretch, but they have played a bit more uptempo of late, averaging 60.8 shots per game in their last 4 games and that should give them plenty of chances for points vs this bad Wake defense. Clemson has averaged 64.4 ppg on the road this year, but I expect them to hit 70+ with ease in this one, while Wake should be good for at least 63 or 64 points. This game should flirt with 140 points.   

Princeton/ Harvard Under 116:  Princetons' games have been a bit higher scoring than normal, but alot of their games have been played on the road of late and their lone Ivy home game put up just 106 points, while their last 2 games overall have averaged 109 ppg. Harvard knows all about low scoring games as their games overall have averged just 118.5 ppg overall, but in the Ivy league that number is much,lower as their Ivy games have averaged just 110.9 ppg. Princeton's defense has not been as great as in years past, but at home they have still been solid, allowing just 56.6 ppg on 41.1% shooting. Harvard knows a thing or two about defense as they have allowed just 53.5 ppg overall (3rd) and just 53.9 ppg on the road. Both teams are average on offense as the Crimson has averaged just 65 ppg, while the Tigers have put up just 64.3 ppg. THis will be a slow down game vs two very good defensive squads and I really don't expect this one to crack 110 points.   

ST MARY'S -21 over Santa Clara: The is a bad spot for the Bulldogs as St Mary's is coming off a bad loss to Gonzaga. They didn't play well at all on both ends of the floor as they were held to 18 points below their season average on offense, while they allowed 12 ppg more than their seasonal average. Santa Clara is 0-9 on the road this year and have been outscored by 17.1 ppg in those games, while the Gaels have outscored their opponents by 18.9 ppg at home. Defense is a problem for the Bulldogs as they have allowed 82.7 ppg on the road and that will not be good for them here as the Gaels put up just 59 points in their last game, so you can bet they will look to put up a ton of points here. at the Other end of the floor the Gaels have allowed 73 points in each of their last 2 games and 70.6 ppg in their last 5 game, so you can expect them to play with more intensity at that end of the floor. St Mary's has beaten just one conference opponent at home by 21 points and that was Gonzaga, but I believe this will be about making a statement as they should thoroughly rout the Bulldogs here. 

5 POINT TEASER--- Missouri -1  &  Louisville +8.5

5 POINT TEASER--- Montana -3  &  Vanderbilt +9.5

  

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

MISSOURI -6 over Baylor: The Bears are a re a very good team this year, but they have had struggles with the top two teams in the Big 12. Baylor has been blown out in their 2 games vs Kansas, while the last time these teams ment the Tiger had a DD lead late, before Baylor made a comeback to lose by just 1. The Tigers speed beat the Bears height in the last meeting and it will do so again. The Tigers are also the more experienced team and they are playing on one of the toughest home courts in the nation. They may win this one by DD.  

VANDERBILT +5 over Kentucky:   Google News Play. The Commodores have a good home court edge and they 11-4 at home overall and 4-1 in their SEC home games, plus they do know how to beat the Cats here as they have taken 5 of the last 6 meetings in Nashville. The cats are starting to blow teams out as each of their last 7 wins have been by double digits, but we also note that tghis has been a tight series of late, as each of the last 3 games have been decided by 4 points or less. Vanderbilt is 2-2 SU in their last 4 games vs top ranked teams and with the way they play at home vs the Cats, i feel the have an excellent shot at picking up their 3rd win in 5 tries vs their last 5 top ranked teams.  KEY TRENDS--- KENTUCKY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games this season, while VANDERBILT is 11-3 ATS  as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

 

1 UNIT PLAYS

Miami +7 over FLORIDA STATE: Play on Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games. This play is 29-6 the last 5 seasons. 

Michigan State +8.5 over OHIO STATE:  OSU has been rolling at home, but MSU has been tough as well of late. *.5 is just too many points in such a big game. 

 

BOL JEFF AND i WILL TELL YOU WHAT I AM GOING TO TAKE ALL YOUR 4 AND 5 UNIT PLAYS TODAY BECAUSE YOU ARE (DUE MY FRIEND) $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Thanks leadman. I hope i don't disappoint. BOL to you today my friend

get them today boss..... you are rock solid boss

GL buddy

THanks JR and LJ. BOL to you guys as well today.

I have added Maryland +15.5  and Clemson Over 131

BOL jeff, like the maryland play.

With you on the Terps Jeff, the Blue Devils are still celebrating their thursday victory...

BOL as always, cash it!

Thanks Wayne and NL. BOL to you guys as well today.