I smell a blowout today (02/11) ..............

UALR @ MTSU

East vs. West sunbelt matchup for possibly top honors..........

Raiders have been limping along since giving Vandy a game, and even though they have been winning, their spread value has been dropping.  Folks lined up at the window last night cashing an easy ticket w/ the pill poppers covering the number in no sweat fashion on the road.

UALR just got through squeaking out an overtime win in lafayette 72-70 in a game they were nip/tuck, but had to have a little luck to tie it up and hold off the ragin' cajuns and never had a chance to relax.  That game went late last night, and return from the parish left little sleep, as travel is always an issue in the belt; as funds are an issues and schools are not always within easy metro reach.  This will be the case tommorrow when the trojans travel to middle tennessee to take on the reigning east champs.  It has all the potential to be a great matchup, but primarily a scheduling flaw.

Linemakers have caught up to the trojans after topping early season expectations, as most are new transfers and even coach shields and asst. joe klien have been surprised by their record and efforts.  Tip time will be noon here, and these two may see each other again.  Definately give the edge to the raiders here, and look to see a low line d/t comparable stats and records.  Trojans have perfomed well on the road, and now bettors are leary of backing the diminishing raiders to cover big numbers.  This should offer some spread "value" - as some say; but a bad situational spot for the trojans, raiders on b2b home games, trojans on b2b away games and raiders should have better legs here.

Now this is all speculative, since I have no line to work with, but thought I would give this to the forum ahead of time b/c I am logged off after 5 and weekends primarily and won't have time to discuss.

I will be playing the Raiders 8 or under here, as UALR is due for a spread beating and only big loss was at home against laffy game previous to last night.  Given that other west leader tanked in a squeaker on the east coast last night (denver), puts UALR in spot where this game won't hurt to bad, and very well (I predict yes) drop off in effort.

If they chalk this one over 10, I have wasted my time here, and best probably just to move along and look elsewhere.  I can see Raiders winning this one wire2wire though, and could be trojans biggest or easily 2nd biggest loss of the season, which would mean a DD beatdown - but don't think vegas will chalk that high as I don't like laying DD in conference - but this is one that would be deserving in my opinion.

& the biggest reason of all; you just ain't right for a couple of days after a stay in Lousiana!! 

Hope everyone has a profitable week......

-Razor

Hell yea RB that's got me fired up for this one! I'll definitely keep a eye on er....

griff, just saw the line MTSU (-12.5)................... they ain't giving nothing these days, man I've had games come down to 1 or 1/2 pt all week.  This line is about right believe in or not.  Will be interested to see which way things turn, still think ualr gets handed big loss here - but was hoping for 8; guess that's why my name is not Don Best.............

When:  Noon today

Where:  Murfreesboro, TN

TV:  ESPN2

UALR enters w/ a 5-1 sunbelt road record.

"Led by LaRon Dendy, who averages 14.4 pts. per game, the Blue Raiders lead the sun belt in scoring offense (71.8), scoring defense (61.2), shooting % (48.9) and shooting % defense (38.6).  They're 13-1 at the Murphy Center this season and went through a non-con schedule that inc. victories over ucla and ole miss, and a near upset of vandy last month"

"Chalk Talk:  Senior guard D'Andre Wms had a career high 24 points in Thurs victory at LAL and has scored at least 14 pts. in UALR's last five games.  Four of those were victories, during which Wms is averaging 18 points"

UALR is beat in all catagories except FT% where they hold a slight edge.

This game was moved up to be on TV this morning.  Game was orignally set for 5 cst today.

LAL outrebound trojans 43-37 on Thursday - this will be exposed big today.  It is the 7th consecutive game in which trojans have not held r/b edge.

"Our guys have to rebound and be committed to being ood in transition again." - steve shields

This one doesn't look good for trojans.........

the over looks like the play!

I was looking to make a play on A-LR but you talked me out of it. I like this MTSU team a lot but thought that they were just giving up too many points here. G/L

Keep up the great work. Raiders have been a covering banshee this season,
Leveling off lately.
MTSU Defensive Efficiency Numbers
Consistently far above average, as you know;

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE's
Highest Sun Belt Defensive Numbers:
   D-PPP 0.873
   DEF eFG% Allowed: 41.2%,
   3/Perimeter D Allowed 29.2% (#2)

Middle Tennessee State simply does not MAKE or even SHOOT many 3's
MTSU Astronomically low 16% of their Pt's from Deep
MTSU 3% dropped from Low 30's Preseason
To just 27.8% in Conference Play
 
Nevertheless, Good Looking Play, brother. 
Keep Grindin

Okay Razorback, you have my attention.