CBB Thursday... Bad Bad Night!!!

I had a solid showing in my top plays last night going 5-1 in them, while overall I went 6-4. My top plays are now on a mini 3 run, going 12-2-1 over that stretch. Let's keep it going tonight.  

TOP PLAYS

5 UNIT PLAY

San Diego +19.5 over ST MARY'S: Talk about your classic sandwich spot.  The Gaels come in fresh off a HUGE road win over BYU, while waiting on deck is a game vs Gonzaga. The Gaels do have a week before that game, but the Zags must still be on their minds. St Mary's did struggle with this team back in January as they won by just 6 points and San Diego did lose by just 17 to Gonzaga, while pulling outright upset wins on the road over Portland and Santa Clara. They did get blown out in their two games vs BYU this year, but each of their other conference losses have been by 17 points or less. The Dog is 17-5 ATS in this series and the Gaels haven't won by more than 15 points in each of their last 5 wins in the series. San Diego is not having a great year as they are 3-6 in the WCC, but have been outscored by just 6.9 ppg in those games, while St Mary's is 10-0 in the WCC, but have outscored those teams by just 14.6 ppg. We also note that the Gaels my not take this team all to seriosly after the big win at BYU and after seeing what the Cougars did to this team in their 2 games vs them. I expect the Toreo's to keep this one around 14 points vs a team that is in letdown mode and just may have other things on their minds with the Zags up next. 

 

4 UNIT PLAY

Iona/ Canisius Under 148.5: Iona home games have averaged slightly over 160 points, but most of that was done before conference games started as their last 4 conference home games have averaged just 145 ppg and only 1 of them put up more than tonight's total. Iona has averaged 85.7 ppg at home, but in their last 4 home games that number has dropped to 77.5 ppg. Canisius has allowed 80.9 ppg on the road this year, but in conference road games that number has gone down a bit to just 75.8 ppg, while in their last 5 overall they have allowed 77.2 ppg. The Gaels will get their points, but I just don't see Canisuis scoring enough to put this game over the total.   The Goden Griffins have averaged 68.2 ppg on the road, but in conference road games that number dips to just 60.5 ppg, while in their last 5 overall they have averaged just 59.8 ppg on 35.8% shooting, plus going a step further we see that Canisius has averaged just 59.9 ppg on 37.7% shooting in MAAC games this year. These teams met back in December when Iona was involved uin many high scoring games and the teams just put up 126 points in that one. The Gaels seem to play it a bit lower scoring in their MAAC games and that's what Im expecting here as well.  

3 UNIT PLAY

Murray State/ SEMO Under 140: Murray State can score for sure, but they are not a run and gun team, plus their defense has really kept their games from being very high scoring. The Racers have averaged 75.9 ppg in conference play, but they have allowed just 60.9 ppg in those games, giving their conference games an average of 136.8 ppg. At home this year Murray state games have averaged 136.1 ppg, with them putting up 75.6 ppg, while allowing just 60.5 ppg. SEMO has averaged 71 ppg in conference play, but they have also played good defense in the conference as they have allowed just 63.6 ppg in those games, including just 56.5 ppg in their last 2 games. Both teams have played good defense in the OVC, which has made their conference games lower scoring than both teams were used to earlier in the year. This is an important conference game for both so I look for both teams to be a bit tight and rely on their defenses to win this one. This game should be played in the lower 130's with neither team hitting 70 points. 

Pepperdine/ Loyola Cal over 125.5: I really missed the boat on this one as it opened up mat 122, but I still feel its a good play as I expect 130+ here. Earlier in the year these teams played a game that put up 126 points, while in the last 5 prior to this year not one of those games put up less than 137 points. Pepperdine has had some problems scoring as of late as they have averaged just 60.8 ppg in their last 5 games and they have scored just 54.8 ppg on the road, but they are not playing a great defensive team tonight. The Lions come in having allowed 67.0 ppg overall and 67.8 ppg at home and that should help a struggling Pepperdine offense to hit at least 62 or 63 in this one. Now over to Loyola on offense. The Lions come in averaging 89.9 ppg in conference play and 66.1 ppg at home and they will be taking on a Pepperdine team that has allowed 67.2 ppg in their WCC games including 68.7 ppg in their last 5 games.  I don't see how they don't hit 66 points in this one, so if Pepperdine was held to just 60 points then we would still get the Over. I will call for this game to hit 130+ though.

UCLA +3 over WASHINGTON: Gotta feel that the Bruins are really playing well right now after a blowout win vs a very good Colorado team. The Bruins have lost the last 3 in the series so you can bet they are looking for a bit of payback here. UCLA has struggled in PAC-12 road games, going just 1-4, but the have been competitive in 3 of the 4 losses as 1 was by one points (Stanford), another by 3 points (OSU) and anther by just 7 points (Oregon), so they have shown they can play with a team like Washington. While UCLA was blowing out their last 2 opponents, the Huskies winning two games in the desert that came down to the wire in both. Im expecting that to take a bit out of this team in this one. Washington has had a good year, but they still have had some rough spots getting blown out at Colorado and only winning at home by 8 points to a non-lined Seattle team. The Huskies can score some points, but UCLA have been playing better defense right now and they shold come up with enough stops to get the win here.   
 

5 POINT TEASER--- UCLA +8  &  Gonzaga +8       

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

Duke -4.5 over VIRGINIA TECH: Duke did not play well vs St John's in their last game and I expect them to be ready for this important ACC matchup. Duke should get back on track with ease vs a Tech team that has just 1 win in their last 7 games. 

Northwestern/ Nebraska Over 126.5: Who would have thought this Nebraska team could, but they do come in having put up 70+ points in 3 of their last 5 games, with the two that they didn't do it vs being OSU and Wisconsin. Two of the best defensive teams in the nation. We Northwestern in not a great defensive team as they come in allowing 66.7 ppg overall and 70 ppg in their last 5 games, which includes allowing a pathetic Wisconsin offense to put up 77 points on them. The Cats have allowed 45.7% shooting overall and 35.9% from long range during their last 5 games. The Cats have had some problems scoring of late, but they have still averaged 68.6 ppg at home on the year and will be taking on a Nebraska team that seems to have broken down of last as they have allowed 73.7 ppg in their last 3 games. I look for both teams to push the tempo a bit in this one as this game eclipses 130+ points.  
 

1 UNIT PLAYS

Oral Roberts/ South Dakota State Over 149: ORAL ROBERTS is 10-3 OVER (+6.7 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. , while S DAKOTA ST is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. 

Nebraska +6.5 over NORTHWESTERN: Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points if they have an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less and are playing against a horrible offensive team (<=63 PPG) after 15+ games. This play is 49-20 over the last 5 seasons. 

BOL Jeff & GET MONEY!!!!!!!!!!

Go get them bud

Love the Duke play, Jeff....although I hate Duke....LOL Get 'em....

Good luck jeff.

BOL jEFF i HOPE YOU NAIL THEM ALL

ur having a great week bro keep it going

Thanks very much guys. All the best to you as ell.

Keep it rolling Jeff, solid work!

Been riding you so leggo and cash some tickets