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Long Beach St +13.5
4 returning starters from last years squad, senior heavy team. Pitt starts slow out of the gate and struggled against a very mediocre Rider team. Long Beach has become accustomed to playing big games on the road and will not be intimidated. I think Casper Ware can be Ahston Gibbs's equal on the floor if not even a little better. Pitt's big man is likely out for the game. Line opened at +13.5 and the public favorite will likely drop as sharp money outweighs public perception.
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Oklahoma State/ Texas- San Antonio Under 137: Defense and a slow paced offense is the style of play in Stillwater and it should give us a comfortable Under play tonight. The Cowboys come into this one allowing just 42.5 ppg and 31.8% shooting in their first 2 games. The Roadrunners doo like to push the ball, but OSU has the talent and ability to make the game at their own pace. The first 2 games this year and their last 6 games last year have combined to averaged just 122 ppg and that's right about where i see this on ending up, maybe a little higher, but it should still be a comfortable Under play.
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Jester0245 - Long Beach St +13-
VERDICT - AGREE!
After two games on this floor, the Panthers have mystified. A 33 point opening day romp over Albany was followed by a second half filled with life and death vs Rider when they allowed the Broncs 78 points in a 8 point survival. Remember, this is a Rider team which lost by 26 to Bobby Mo and 18, at home, to Bruiser’s Boys. 4 RS for Long Beach for fifth year HC Monson must surely make this a much higher priority game. Last year this same bunch was hardened by no fewer than 8 pre-con games vs major quality opposition. They won’t be scared by “The Pete”. Plenty of room for this 22 win team to slip in under the number with the 3-ball a part of their arsenal.
SEMO AT BRADLEY
Bradley’s new head coach Geno Ford inherits a team that finished tied for ninth in the MVC and lost two of its top three scorers. The Braves’ top returning scorer is Dyricus Simms-Edwards, as he averaged 10.5 points a year ago. Taylor Brown, a pre-season all-MVC pick last year, is also back after missing the entire 2010-11 campaign. The Braves are picked to finish last in this years preseason MVC poll. The Braves are 1-0 beating UMKC this past Sunday 68-58. To me the most telling stat from that game was FT. UMKC was 7-18 38.9% and Bradley was 22-33 66.7%. Right there is the difference in the game. UMKC out scored them on the floor.
This will be Bradley's "Throwback Night," game at Renaissance Coliseum. The game against the Redhawks will be Bradley's first regular-season game against a NCAA Division I opponent played on campus since 1982.
This is the one game that SEMO has been pointing toward since this past summer. The coaches and players believe this is a VERY winnable game and I can tell you they are chomping at the bit to play. SEMO comes into this game 1-1, losing the first game of the year at Missouri 83-68 (without star Leon Powell) and winning at home against Harris-Stowe 95-60. Everyone knows SEMO's star player is 6-7 Leon Powell. Last year Leon was SEMO's ONLY inside scoring threat and was double teamed every time he touched the ball and he still led the nation in fg% at 63%. He averaged 14.1ppg and 7.7rpg. What people don't know is that 6-8 Missouri transfer Tyler Stone is just as good as Leon RIGHT NOW. To go with those two highly touted 3* freshman 6-8 Nino Johnson is fast approaching those two skillwise. I think he will be the frontrunner for the OVC freshman of the year. If and when coach Nutt puts all three of those guys on the floor at the same time he will have one of the best frontlines for a mid major team in the country. One other big surprise so far has been the play of 6-4 215lb sr. guard Marcus Brister. In both of SEMO's first two games we saw the Marcus that the coaches envisioned when they signed him. He's not an outside scorer but is very good at slashing to the hole AND FINISHING. I love this game so much I'm making it a 5* play and putting 1* on the ML.
5* #773 SEMO +7 -107
1* #773 SEMO +275
ps: I forgot to say in my original writeup that Leon is completely healthy and will play tonight.
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2011-12 CBB REGULAR SEASON: 146-112 56.59% +44.58 units
2011-12 CBB POSTSEASON: 73-71 50.69% -13.33 units
2011 CFB OVERALL: 18-10 64.3% +15.38 units
2011 CFB FCS: 18-8 69.2% +20.98 units
2011 CFB SEMO: 7-1 87.5% +23.8 units
2010-11 CBB POSTSEASON: 22-18 55.0% -2.21 units2010-11 CBB REG. SEASON: 107-115 48.2% -6.28 units2010-11 CFB REG. SEASON: 11-18 37.93% -23.24units2009-10 CBB REG. SEASON: 92-76 54.8% +40.06 units2009-10 CBB POSTSEASON: 32-24 57.1% +16.75 units
On Twitter: @pool2
Jeff Scott Sports - Ok State/Texas SA UNDER 137
VERDICT - HUNG JURY
You are on your own here although your reasoning is sound. I do not do OVER/UNDERS in Coll Hoops.
FYI for all the BEST BETS here in College Hoops - No Totals but I promise to give you enough Sides!!!
Pool - SE MO +7
OK, you sold me. But in the future please try to do your writeups in a bit more depth. :) I seldom leap for an OVC traveler at an MVC site. But I too have the Redhawks ticketed for upward mobility on the basis of the 3 quality D1 transfers.
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