Sweet Sixteen continues tonight. Last night saw a one point game, a two point game and a three point game. Then there was that 32 point game. Kansas closed out Purdue last night by outscoring them 73-33 over the last 27 minutes. Favorites were 1-2-1 last night, but the only real upset was Xavier's win over Arizona. Tonight could be a different story! Here are my plays:
Butler +7 and ML vs N Carolina Yes, I am calling the big upset here! Butler seems to be the team that no one wants to love. The public bet big against them last weekend and they covered both games. They are big against Butler again tonight. Certainly, North Carolina's numbers are more impressive than Butler's, especially where rebounding is concerned. However, one thing that sticks out to me here is that Butler has played a tough schedule and won against it. During the regular season, North Carolina was 10-5 vs teams that made the NCAA Tournament. The Heels have 1 win over Sweet Sixteen teams (that was Wisconsin back in November). Butler was 13-5 vs NCAA Tournament teams and has 3 wins vs Sweet Sixteen teams (most recent was Xavier on Feb 26). Butler also owns two wins vs the tournament's overall #1 seed, Villanova. Butler's overall strength of schedule is a tad bit better than UNC's. Butler is also 19-12 ATS this year, Carolina is 18-16. In the end, call this a gut feeling, but I am betting on Butler to win outright tonight. Bigger bet on the spread, sprinkle on the ML.
Baylor -3.5 vs S Carolina Call this a homer bet if you will. Baylor commits way too many turnovers, and South Carolina is good at causing them. But Baylor has every other numerical advantage, and if Baylor can set up their D, the Gamecocks will have a difficult time scoring. Scott Drew and Frank Martin certainly know each other's style well, and Drew owns a 6-4 advantage in games versus each other. Baylor shoots the ball better from 3, they shoot it much better inside the 3, they rebound better, they have several guys that can make plays, they have solid guard play, they have their big guy, and they have their X factor on the floor. It'll be close, but I still like Baylor to win this by 5-7 points.
Florida -1.5 vs Wisconsin
UCLA ML vs Kentucky I have never been big on revenge as an effective handicapping tool. I like UCLA's guards better here, and teams with the better guard play usually prevail.