*** 14 Bracket Picking Rules from Vegas! (records since modern era began in 1985 unless otherwise noted) ROUND OF 64 picks: TIP: Pick ZERO #1 or #2 seeds to lose. #16 seeds are 0 for 128 #15 seeds are 8 for 128 TIP: Pick at least ONE #13 or #14 seed to win. At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 28 of 32 years #13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games TIP: Don't be shy picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds. #12 seeds have won at least one game 25 of 28 years #9 seeds have won EXACTLY half their games vs. #8 seeds ROUND OF 32 picks: TIP: Advance #1 seeds into Sweet 16 in almost all cases. 88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16 TIP: Keep advancing any #12 seeds you picked to win in Round One. #12 seeds have won 20 of 46 times in Round Two A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 30 of 32 years TIP: Pick at least ONE upset of a #2 or #3 seed. Only ONCE in 32 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen TIP: Do NOT pick any seed worse than #12 to win in the Round of 32. Only 9 of 512 teams (only 1.7%) advancing to Sweet 16 were seeded worse than #12 (none last year) SWEET 16 round picks: TIP: Advance exactly THREE #1 seeds into the Elite 8. 71% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8 (that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds that win a single game!) TIP: Advance no team worse than a #11 seed into the Elite 8 26 seeds worse than #11 have made it the Sweet 16 but only ONE Elite 8 team (out of a total of 256) has been seeded worse than #11 ELITE 8 round picks: TIP: Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four. The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 25 of 32 years TIP: Advance no team worse than a #9 seed to the Final Four. Only 4 of 152 Final Four teams (since 1979) have been seeded worse than #9 FINAL FOUR round picks: TIP: Advance NO team worse than a #6 seed to the Championship game. Only TWO Championship games have had any team worse than a #6 seed (in last 31 years) TIP: Do NOT advance TWO #1 seeds to Championship game Since tournament seeding began in 1979 #1 seeds have played each other in the finals only 7 times CHAMPIONSHIP GAME pick: TIP: Pick a #4 seed or better to win it all. 27 of last 28 years the NCAA Champion has been a #4 seed or better!
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