Continuing to do the work and we've got a 3* Max-Bet Saturday -
512 Georgia 8.0 (-120) Pinnacle vs 511 Kentucky |
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Analysis: Probably can get +8 without buying at some point. Kentucky is everyone's GOY when they visit. UGA came back to push Kentucky to OT in Lexington and just ran out of gas - so they know what they have to do. The put Kentucky on the line a TON - but actually held the Wildcats to only 41% shooting inside the arc. Aside from getting torched by Alabama a while back, UGA has been "in" every single SEC game this season - fade or follow, I like their chances of covering here. Obviously.
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Kansas/Baylor: Kansas beat Baylor at home by five, but in that game the Jayhawks got to the FT line 27 times - that's a lot, but not outrageous unless you consider the fact that Baylor shot exactly six free throws. I thought I'd like Kansas here, and it's hard not to. But, there is very little chance that FT differential happens again, and without a doubt Baylor's going to try to take the air out of the ball. I like the UNDER.
UVA/UNC: It's be real easy to simply assume UVA is done after getting beaten at home by Duke, but UVA's defense is a lot closer to that of Miami's (who beat UNC in Miami) than most any other ACC team. In fact, not many ACC teams play a ton of defense, period, so remember than in a few weeks. I could make a reasonable argument for Miami and the under - since rarely do these high-profile games end with the favorite covering AND it goes over, and UNC's totals have been inflated since Michael Jordan went there, if not longer.
SMU/Houston: I'm somewhat surprised at the respect they're giving Houston, only having SMU a -2 favorite. Yes, SMU beat them soundly at home, but Houston really hasn't beaten ANYONE - they beat URI and Vermont (barely) at home prior to the start of Conference play - so honestly, SMU may well be just that easy. Bottom line for me is that I won't take Houston (I might, but...) and you know I like home teams getting points. It's going to be a matter of who makes their three's or not, and whether Houston can keep SMU from dominating the glass like they usually do.