Now that everyone is settled down after Sunday's bad day, and as I've said many times over the years - if you're going to hunt and peck for the daily big play, I have empathy, but not sympathy.
UVA/Notre Dame: The Irish haven't lost at home this season, and it's always tough to bet against them in South Bend. Even last season (as a weaker team) they only lost at home twice, and they lost AT UVA in a game where they were down big and early. They closed the gap, but it wasn't close, so motivation, Irish. UVA has Villanova next, but not until Saturday, so no real look-ahead, but that game will go a long way to determining their seed come March. So, slight situation, Irish. Neither team has a ton of weaknesses, but if UVA has a soft spot it's the perimeter defense, which plays into the Irish's offensive tendencies. UVA has been playing a BIT more inside this season, which should only help Notre Dame. I can't get past the Irish 81% FT shooting, and think that although the pace will be slower, both teams are just incredibly efficient and it might go over as well.
Kansas/WVU: A week ago I probably wouldn't have hesitated to back West Virginia here. We faded them at Kansas State the other night in anticipation of this game, but they lost the game prior to that, and struggled to beat Texas before that. So, three games can't be a look-ahead spot. Kansas has the one four-point loss to Indiana, so it's tough not to take them with +4.5 points here. However, sooner or later their marginal (at best) FT shooting is going to cost them a game, and they do have Kentucky this weekend. WVU's FT shooting isn't all that spiffy, either, so if they don't run away from Kansas I can't trust them to win it late at the line, so as of now I have to lean Kansas, which surprisingly may not be the popular play.
Marquette/Villanova: I have to think this could be Marquette's game to lose. It's a rematch from a loss at Villanova not that long ago, and as I said above, Villanova has UVA this weekend. The ugly part here is that Marquette's perimeter defense has been terrible - offensively these teams play very similar styles, Marquette just does it faster and plays better defense. Villanova has turned the ball over in Conference play, and from an efficiency standpoint Marquette is #1 in the Conference. I do think this could be a high scoring game, but clearly it will (is) a big number. The reason for me to think that way is that Marquette will push the pace. If you're fading Villanova the only way they lose is when they miss three's - and they've shot great against far better defenses, so that's playing with the Devil there. But, it's Marquette or nothing IMO.