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Dave's CBB Thursday - Free 2* Bet

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Thread Starter Dave's CBB Thursday - Free 2* Bet
Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
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We won three of four bets last night, but of course dropped the biggest of the three. Winning three of four never sucks, however. Here's one for Thursday, and we've got a rare NBA 3* GOM going as well - last time we fired one of those (in December, naturally) Brooklyn won for us.

728 Marshall -4.5 (-110) Pinnacle vs 727 Old Dominion
Analysis: At first this one looked to easy, but I really think it is. Clearly a contrast in styles as Marshall wants to run up and down the court, while ODU wants to walk. The home team usually has a better chance of dictating the pace. The Herd have been playing lights' out. They played both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati very tough on the road before starting Conference play, and are 2-0 in C-USA play with two road wins. I know they were over lesser teams, but winning on the road in Conference play, especially B2B, is not that easy. It's no secret that ODU has an inferior offense. They last played a road game a month ago at URI. They did a great job defensively holding URI to 51 points. The flip side is that they scored 39, for the game. Marshall has a deeper bench, which comes into play if/when ODU gets tired of running, and Marshall is very experienced. They shoot well from the line, which is always good down the stretch if this games' close. Last year at home, Marshall lost two conference games at home, to UAB and LaTech, and they beat ODU here by 17. Normally, I'd consider that some measure of payback attempt for ODU. That will happen February 23 at ODU after Marshall plays MTSU at home. Not tonight.

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JR ODonnell
Joined: 10/10/2009
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love MARSHALL ... nice work as always ...... be well

It's what you do today that determines your future,not what you do tomorrow & "No man ever reached to excellence in any one art or profession without having passed through the slow and painful process of study and preparation 

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langeo
Joined: 10/11/2009
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thank you Dave

mason62
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Great stuff Dave as always...

Mramos3643
Joined: 11/29/2014
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interesting that my local has marshall at -3. Is this line dropping for some reason?

mobig wins
Joined: 12/10/2009
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Any thought on UCLA-11? I think there going to be really focused and blow out Cal.

sdfritsch
Joined: 02/12/2011
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Thanks dave. One of my books has it at -2.5 now

mobig wins
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I will follow. Thanks

Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
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Mramos3643

interesting that my local has marshall at -3. Is this line dropping for some reason?

Yes, it's dropping and for a reason. The reason is usually money, or books following those that do move because of money, or both. There are people that seem to disagree. I did the work - do with it what you will.

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From Deadspin:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind. 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 17162
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

sdfritsch

Thanks dave. One of my books has it at -2.5 now

Certainly Marshall is or will be the "square, not cool" side - it does look easy. We shall see. You've (I've) got to do the work OR follow the market, not both - at least not this time of day. One of two things will happen, as always.

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

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From Deadspin:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind. 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

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