Some 2H Theories for you

Want to share a little bit of what I've constructed over the past 5 months. The following angles have seen great success in not only college basketball, but the NFL and CFB as well. (Disclaimer: I hate the NBA and refuse to bet it, but that's just me). I've formed a semi-system based off of a couple different variables and of course, from learning after many sucker wager losses in the past. I've been pretty selective, yet still been hitting around a 61 percent clip with these.

If an underdog is winning at the half, take them getting points in the 2H IF the favorite has to CROSS ZERO to cover the 2H line: Standard chase for those that have laid the points with the favorite and are looking to double back. Bookmakers go for the jugular here trying to catch people in a trap. For example, NFC divisional round. I had Seattle getting 11 points against New Orleans for the game. Seahawks were leading by 4 at the half; 2H line was NO -7. That was so obvious to me to take Seattle --- it was like the books were begging you take the popular road favorite (again). "Oh, Saints will win by at least a field goal." Well, no they won't, it's never that easy. Seahawks covered 2H and won the game outright.

EDIT: It's been decided that any home dog winning at the break is an automatic play. That said, it's much harder to back a road dog in CBB or CFB because of how important home court/field advantage is at the collegiate level. Young athletes are rattled much easier and if the home favorite goes on an early 2H spurt, the bottom could fall out on the road dog because of the newfound momentum. In the professional ranks, the venue doesn't mean as much and it could still be viable to bet the road dog (especially in the postseason like the Jets over Pats in 2011 NFL Playoffs.)

If the listed, unpopular favorite is covering a spread at halftime, take only them in the 2H: Similiar to above, this is a chase of those trying to eek inside the number with a couple "extra" points. Two nights ago, Texas A&M played at Texas in a battle of two Top 10 teams. The Aggies +7 were the extremely public side, catching upwards of 80 percent of action. The Longhorns were up by 12 at half and most of the books threw up a "PK" as the 2H line. This was one of the easier second half wagers for me to make all season. The general public who already was all over A&M +7 for the game saw a chance to literally buy five more points to +12 and maybe cut their losses with an extra cushion. Of course, this was yet another trap for the public as Texas pummeled A&M by 21, covering the 2H line by 9.

Always avoid -1/2 and -1: In my opinion, this should be one of the first lessons of Gambling 101 from the start. When linemakers throw out something like minus-one, I've automatically programmed my brain to lean to the +1, especially at the half. Last night, I cashed with Cal Poly 2H. Thanks to Sac Lawson having me on Poly +4 for the game, I was already invested in the game. Poly was down 4 at the half --- I was tied ATS --- and take one guess where the 2H opened up?! That's right, Riverside -1. I knew right away that not only would Poly probably cover the 2H, but also the game. Pounded it immediately and Poly won outright 65-60 covering the 2H by 9 and doubling me up.

Interested to hear some thoughts and reactions. Also wondering if any of you have experienced sucker 2H beats like these and kicked yourselves after the fact. I can assure you that more times than not, these theories and principles will be very kind to your bankroll. Hope this was helpful.

Great insight Sam!

Sam Clayton

Want to share a little bit of what I've constructed over the past 5 months. The following angles have seen great success in not only college basketball, but the NFL and CFB as well. (Disclaimer: I hate the NBA and refuse to bet it, but that's just me). I've formed a semi-system based off of a couple different variables and of course, from learning after many sucker wager losses in the past. I've been pretty selective, yet still been hitting around a 61 percent clip with these.

If underdog is winning at the half, take them getting points in the 2H: Standard chase for those that have laid the points with the favorite and are looking to double back. Bookmakers go for the jugular here trying to catch people in a trap. For example, NFC divisional round. I had Seattle getting 11 points against New Orleans for the game. Seahawks were leading by 4 at the half; 2H line was NO -7. That was so obvious to me to take Seattle --- it was like the books were begging you take the popular road favorite (again). "Oh, Saints will win by at least a field goal." Well, no they won't, it's never that easy. Seahawks covered 2H and won the game outright.

If the listed, unpopular favorite is covering a spread at halftime, take only them in the 2H: Similiar to above, this is a chase of those trying to eek inside the number with a couple "extra" points. Two nights ago, Texas A&M played at Texas in a battle of two Top 10 teams. The Aggies +7 were the extremely public side, catching upwards of 80 percent of action. The Longhorns were up by 12 at half and most of the books threw up a "PK" as the 2H line. This was one of the easier second half wagers for me to make all season. The general public who already was all over A&M +7 for the game saw a chance to literally buy five more points to +12 and maybe cut their losses with an extra cushion. Of course, this was yet another trap for the public as Texas pummeled A&M by 21, covering the 2H line by 9.

Always avoid -1/2 and -1: In my opinion, this should be one of the first lessons of Gambling 101 from the start. When linemakers throw out something like minus-one, I've automatically programmed my brain to lean to the +1, especially at the half. Last night, I cashed with Cal Poly 2H. Thanks to Sac Lawson having me on Poly +4 for the game, I was already invested in the game. Poly was down 4 at the half --- I was tied ATS --- and take one guess where the 2H opened up?! That's right, Riverside -1. I knew right away that not only would Poly probably cover the 2H, but also the game. Pounded it immediately and Poly won outright 65-60 covering the 2H by 9 and doubling me up.

Interested to hear some thoughts and reactions. Also wondering if any of you have experienced sucker 2H beats like these and kicked yourselves after the fact. I can assure you that more times than not, these theories and principles will cash long term. Hope this was helpful.

Couldn't agree more, Sam.  This is great stuff.

Yes, I have had the sucker bet.  Can't tell you how many times early on in gambling my friends and I would sit around watching the listed favorite trailing at the half, waiting for the 2H line to comes out.  It would come out at -6 or -7.  "Oh man, we can still get them as a dog for the game!"  "Oh man, we only need to win by 1!"  Well, they would lose more often than not.

Sound stuff here, thanks for sharing!

 thanks good info.any time I try and work a middle i'm getting killed. For instance I had 2$ on the JEts +10. At the half I put a 1$ on Pats-9.5 to work a middle and limit my exposure.  Not even close.  

Very helpful. Made that exact mistake on the Saints game. I went to put a halftime bet on the Seahawks- I figured the line would be high. Of course, when I saw -7, I figured the Saints would outscore them by at least a TD...made the mistake the books baited me into making.

What's some more of the thought behind the 3rd point? Just that at -1, chances are the true line should be a pick and you're losing a point of value backing a more popular team? Anyone who has thoughts can answer.

There's two valid ways for a handicapper to think about a game:

Specific details of THAT game.

General concepts that apply.

These general concepts from Sam are VERY HELPFUL.

Sam Clayton

Also wondering if any of you have experienced sucker 2H beats like these and kicked yourselves after the fact

definitely have gotten my fair share of both ends.  i feel like more often then not i lose when im not actually watching and/or paying close attention to box score & stats of the game...

eg1, i grabbed duke (2h -13) losing by 5 to virginia at half (game spread ~ - 15) ...thinking: duke at home cold as hell shooting% 1h cannot continue

eg2, grabbed patriots 2h against jets, ...thinking: tom brady & co. make a comeback

 - - in neither case did i have a play on game at the start

 Q.  what are the other factors to consider how to play the 2h... and how important are they? some may not be as important if you dont have a play on the initial game line, right?   home/away, public/nonpublic,  margins

--- have any theories on totals?

Q.  say you do have a play on the total at start...how big of a possible middle window would you need to make a hedge 2h?  rule of thumb? or strictly on instinct/ feel for game (assuming youre watching)

Q. suppose you have no play on game.  total at start is 150 but in the 1h only 50 points are scored?  2h is most likely ~80  rule of thumb? or strictly on instinct/ feel for game (assuming youre watching)

ive always been very interested in 2h lines, someone on the forum had an interesting thread on nba 2h (enduro?) but i, like you have zero interest in betting nba (unless its the bulls for fun). 

 thanks for starting this thread

If underdog is winning at the half, take them getting points in the 2H: Standard chase for those that have laid the points with the favorite and are looking to double back. Bookmakers go for the jugular here trying to catch people in a trap. For example, NFC divisional round. I had Seattle getting 11 points against New Orleans for the game. Seahawks were leading by 4 at the half; 2H line was NO -7. That was so obvious to me to take Seattle --- it was like the books were begging you take the popular road favorite (again). "Oh, Saints will win by at least a field goal." Well, no they won't, it's never that easy. Seahawks covered 2H and won the game outright.

YUP--absolutely PROFITABLE "LONG-TERM"

great post Sammy boy.

This general theory doesn't work in the OVC. I'll be back with a post explaining myself.