(719) MICHIGAN STATE vs. (720) LOUISVILLE
Free Pick: (720) LOUISVILLE +2.5
KISS. That stands for Keep It Simple Stupid and I think I’ll heed that advice today. First off I think there is a simple approach to this Michigan State/Louisville duel. Secondly, the way I’ve called too many recent shots, I’m at least a temporary member of the stupid set.
I don’t relish the prospect of trying to beat Tom Izzo. The longtime Spartan coach is as good as it gets come tournament time. But so is Rick Pitino and I just keep staring at one set of numbers regarding Pitino. The guy is now 14-2 against the spread as a an underdog over the past four seasons. I understand that’s not a huge long term sample that one likes to see, but it’s sure not bad.
Beyond that, it’s really tough to make a case for either side here, at least from my vantage point. This is a very even matchup. The Spartans are better offensively, although their inaccuracy at the stripe can be an issue. The Cardinals rate the edge on defense, although it’s not a blowout by any means on that count. Good luck trying to find a coaching advantage.
So in essence I have what looks to me to be a pure coin flip. But I’m getting a basket with the Cardinals and I’ve got Pitino in a role in which he’s flourished spectacularly in recent years. Short and sweet, I’ll take Louisville with the points.