Plays on Arizona-Wisconsin game
AZ -1 ATS or ML/-120 for 2 units
FH Under 61.5 for 2 units or U 61 for 1.5 units, pass at < 61
Two team 5 point "ultimate hedge" teaser of AZ to +4 with Wisky to +6 for 3 units (risk 3.3 units to win 3 at -110 odds)
Possible 2H play if either team trailing at HT and +4> on adjusted game line, and/or on 2H Over if good value on adjusted game total - check in at HT
Discussion of today's two Elite 8 games
On today’s two Elite 8 games, the only plays I have made so far personally are the above 3, while the only one I have released as an "official" play, since I expect a very competitive game, is the above “ultimate hedge” 5.5 point teaser play, where I tease BOTH Arizona AND Wisky (which makes sense, expecting a very close game). This also looks like a game that is “ripe” for a 2H Over play if the line value is there (due to lower than expected FH scoring) and my betting criteria for such a play are satisfied.
I like AZ here, but have a fair amount riding on them already, with about $60 of “exposure” with Arizona on my futures play where I'm risking $60 (to win $81, at +135 odds) on AZ to win the West Regional (which they will if they win today’s game). Also note that Wisky beat AZ LY (as 3.5 point dogs) in the Regional Finals at a similar venue (the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA) favoring AZ.
As far as the later game (Ky vs ND), while it could be a very interesting game to watch, I really don’t like it from a betting standpoint (don’t like going against a Kentucky team that has a huge size edge over ND, but don’t like giving DDs to scrappy and well-coached, healthy and good shooting “giant-killing” ND team, either). I’ll probably watch the FH and see if ND is over-matched inside and on the boards, and how well they shoot from the outside, and then maybe bet the 2H if there is anything available with good line value that makes sense.
Hope this helps.
Great Owl