Northern Arizona -3 at North Dakota
Pick: Northern Arizona
With conference-leading Montana and Sacramento State having just three Big Sky games remaining, Northern Arizona most likely will need to win out in order to have a shot at hosting the conference tournament.
Despite the postseason looming, Lumberjacks head coach Jack Murphy said the situation does not add any extra pressure.
“There has been pressure on us from day one that we set ourselves because of what we expect,” Murphy said. “Up until this point, you had the pressure of not making the tournament if you don’t win enough games. The guys’ mindset, they understand the next game is always the biggest game of the year at this point.”
Northern Arizona’s hot streak continued when the team clinched a berth in the Big Sky tournament with last week’s win over Eastern Washington. Winners in seven of their past eight games, the Lumberjacks defeated both North Dakota three weeks ago 88-63.
Let’s take a quick look back at that game from the perspective of the Northern Arizona players:
“Honestly, I just kept penetrating and he was just wide open every time,” Yanku said of Dixon setting up in the left corner. “I don’t know what happened. They must have had defensive miscues or something. He was just wide open in that corner every time…..When Aaseem hits a shot, Q hits a shot, I think it gets people like me, (Jordyn Martin) and Ako (Kaluna) going… Once they are playing at their best, I feel like everyone elses' game just elevates to another level.”
In the end, Dixon, Upshur and Yanku combined for 60 points.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
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REBOUNDS
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PLAYER
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MIN
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FGM-A
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3GM-A
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FTM-A
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OFF
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DEF
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TOT
|
A
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PF
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STL
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TO
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BLK
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PTS
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Aaseem Dixon
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32:00
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6-12
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6-10
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1-2
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0
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7
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7
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4
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2
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0
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0
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0
|
19
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Quinton Upshur
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24:00
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4-9
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2-6
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5-6
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0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
15
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Kris Yanku
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34:00
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5-12
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2-2
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14-16
|
1
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5
|
6
|
9
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
26
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Moreover, Northern Arizona landed at the FT line 31 times, hitting on 25 of their free throws for 81%. The penetration game is an area of the game I think NAU can continue to expose here tonight. NAU ranks 2nd in the conference in Offensive Rebound %: (31.7%) and 3rd in offensive FTA/FGA (41.7%) and 2nd in FT% (76.7%). Meanwhile on the flip side of those stats North Dakota’s ranks 7th and 9th in the conférence. Moreover, ND ranks 11th in conference in offensive rebounding % (23.9%). Put together, Northern Arizona will get a lot of 2nd chance points.
Northern Arizona is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. In addition, Northern Arizona is 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big Sky.
While Northern Arizona has continued to climb since the schools played, North Dakota has struggled mightily. North Dakota has dropped five in a row and seven of ten as they can't get either side of the floor on the same page with the defense having the most issues. Moreover, North Dakota is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. North Dakota is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Sky.
When a team like North Dakota is struggling, it doesn’t help to face one of the conference’s best defensive units. Northern Arizona is the Big Sky’s 2nd ranked defensive efficiency unit, 1st ranked defensive effective FG% unit, 1st ranked defensive rebounding unit, 1st ranked defensive 2PT% unit and 4th ranked 3PT% unit.
I am not too worried about the look ahead game @ Northern Colorado on Saturday, because Northern Arizona will most likely need to win out in order to have a shot at hosting the conference tournament. Meaning this game counts just as much as the next for Northern Arizona.
We simply have two teams going in the wrong direction. North Dakota is stuck in the bottom half of the conference tourney seeding, meanwhile Northern Arizona is fighting to host. I am taking the team that has momentum, the ability to exploit the other team’s weaknesses and the better defense. North Dakota is only 3-6 at home this season. At -3 there is much value in the visiting team this evening.
Give me Northern Arizona -3