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#519 Old Dominion vs. #520 BAYLOR BEARS ( -4 ) WINNER WINNER WINNER

I got beat ATS by my Bears, since I had them at -11.0 to cover. Baylor might have been a little tight in winning their opening round game against Sam Houston State. They were down one at the half but didn’t panic and outscored the Bearkats by ten for a nine point win. Tweety Carter did not have his best game yesterday, if he puts up another 2 points/2 assists, then the Bears will be going home sooner than expected. Everyone has Baylor as a trendy pick and perhaps they got too caught up in reading about themselves this week. Even I believe that.

Old Dominion is a no nonsense team but if the Bears get production from their top three – Carter, LaceDarius Dunn and Epke Udoh, the Monarchs do not have the talent to match. Udoh dominated against Sam Houston State and has shown he can do so against all levels of competition.

Old Dominion was patient in their victory against the streaking Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. They used their trademark tough defense to keep themselves in it and did an amazing job on Luke Harangody who scored his four points in the last minutes. It will be much tougher to keep the Bears down. They are more athletic and talented than Notre Dame although they sometimes play out of control. Maintaining control is Old Dominion’s specialty. If they can keep the game in the 60’s they have a chance but if they have to play catchup they are in trouble as they are not a good 3-pt shooting team, where this could easily end for the Monarchs.

I believe that Baylor used Sam Houston State to get the jitters out and will be focused and ready to roll against Old Dominion. This is a bad matchup for the Monarchs who will have trouble dictating tempo. I fully expect LaceDarius Dunn, Tweety Carter, Epke Udoh and Quincy Acy to get off and lead to a fairly easy victory in possibly double digits.

PLAY MY ALMA MATER MINUS THE POINTS!!!

SIC'EM BEARS!!!

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#521 WAKE FOREST DEACONS ( +9.5 ) Vs. #522 Kentucky Wildcats HUGE FAT LOSER

The Deacons showed a lot of gumption by coming back from an eight-point deficit in overtime to beat Texas in the first round, the same Longhorns team that was number one in the nation early on before collapsing in the second half of the season. Wake is mow 20-10 for the year, and they are actually the more battle-tested team between these two despite the 33-2 record for Kentucky, which is a statement about the conferences that these clubs play in.

That win over Texas was the seventh this season for the Demon Deacons over a team ranked in the Pomeroy top 50, and they also own a nice non-conference road win over Gonzaga, which is ranked 56 and is usually unbeatable at home. Perhaps most importantly, the Wake Forest defense ranks third in the country in effective field goal percentage against, limiting opponents to only 42.8 percent shooting on two-point attempts and 29.1 percent on three-pointers.

That quite possibly makes this the best defense that Kentucky has faced all season, and almost certainly the best they have faced since early non-conference play. Also, the highest rated non-conference team that the Wildcats have beaten all year is Louisville, ranked 40 by Pomeroy, so while their numbers look fantastic on both offense and defense, consider that the Kentucky non-conference schedule is ranked just 139 in the country.

Now, the Wildcats should still win this game on the court, but it will be no cakewalk like they have become accustomed to vs. SEC teams. Look for Wake Forest to easily hang within single-digits from start to finish, and if they somehow pull off an outright upset, we would not be as shocked as some other people.

PLAY THE DEMON DEACONS PLUS THE POINTS

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#527 MURRAY STATE RACERS ( +4.5 ) Vs. #528 Butler Bulldogs WINNER

MURRAY STATE ( Money Line - half a unit ) **Two plays in this game** LOSER

Both of these teams come into this game on fire and not just because they won their opening round games. The Racers won the Ohio Valley Conference and they won 22 of their last 23 games including winning their last 5. President Obama even predicted they would beat Vanderbilt in the 1st round. Butler may be the hottest team in the NCAA tournament, as the Horizon League winners have won 21 straight.

Murray State has one of the most well balanced offenses in the Big Dance with 2 forwards, 2 guards, and a center averaging in double figures. There is no big gun for the Racers, as every player averaging in double figures averages between 10 and 11 ppg. Both of these teams have solid defenses with each only allowing opponents to score an average of around 60 ppg. Murray State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record, and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.

Butler is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.

WRONG TEAM FAVORED! As hard as it may be to digest, Murray State is a better BOTH on the offense and defensive end. Take the points and maybe even grab a tiny piece of the moneyline here as I believe Murray State wins straight up as a +4.5 underdog!

PLAY THE RACERS PLUS THE POINTS, AND THE MONEY LINE FOR HALF THE NORMAL WAGER

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#523 BYU Cougars Vs. #524 KANSAS STATE WILDCATS ( -4.5 ) WINNER

BYU went 13–3 in the Mountain West this season to finish second to New Mexico before losing to UNLV in the semifinals of the conference tournament. So the Cougars got a seven seed in this tournament as an at-large bid out of the MWC.

K-State dispatched of 15-seed North Texas Thursday 82-62, and covered the line as 16-point chalk. The 'Cats shot 51% from the floor, and held the Green to 31% FG shooting. And that game stayed under its posted total of 147 ½ by a couple of hoops.

Kansas State went 11-5 to tie for second place in the Big 12 this season, then won a couple of games in the conference tournament last week before losing to top-ranked Kansas 72-64 in the championship game. So the Wildcats garnered a two seed as an at-large out of the B-12.

K State had gone 11 seasons between NCAA tournament appearances before making it to the second round in 2008. But they missed the Big Dance again last year.

The Cougs are playing in the NCAA tournament for the fourth season in a row. Last year they got beat by Texas A&M in the first round for the second straight season.

If this game comes down to free-throw shooting, BYU holds a distinct advantage. The Cougs lead D-1 ball by shooting 78% from the FT line this season, while the 'Cats are shooting just 66% from the stripe.

Defensively, K State is holding opponents to 42% FG shooting, BYU 41%. And both teams are outrebounding foes by about four per game.

Kansas State and Brigham Young have played two common opponents this season. The Wildcats won at UNLV back in December 95-80, and they beat Nebraska twice in Big 12 play, by scores of 76-57 and 91-87. BYU, meanwhile, beat the Cornhuskers on a neutral court in Las Vegas in December 88-66, but went 1-2 vs. UNLV, winning by a score of 77-73 in January and losing by scores of 88-74 and, in the MWC tournament, 70-66.

PLAY Kansas State minus the points, the best team in college hoops that nobody knows about (next to my BAYLOR BEARS of course, LOL). The Wildcats win by 10+ vs. a gritty but not good enough to win Saturday BYU team.

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#525 Northern Iowa Panthers Vs. #530 KANSAS JAYHAWKS ( -11.5 ) JOKE OF A LOSER!!!

Seems like the whole world is on Kansas, and although I have been hitting the Dogs hard and been successful doing so, I am going to lay the double digits on a far superior BIG XII team. I really like this line to be at the opening of -12, now down half a point? Are the Jayhawks not worthy of much credit? This may seem like an inflated line, but if you asked me, it is about right, for I actually like them to win by no less than 15 points.

I wouldn’t make too much of Kansas’ relatively slow start and the lack of a big blowout win against Lehigh. The Jayhawks only got to the line ten times while Lehigh managed to coax the Jayhawks into 18 fouls and get to the line 21 times. They hit 17 of them, which is 12 more than Kansas.

A 12-point deficit at the free throw line is pretty substantial, but it’s the only statistical category the Jayhawks didn’t win. They hit more shots, owned the boards, snagged more steals, and if they’d tried to mount more of an attack inside the paint, they’d have made up that free throw deficit and it would have been a bigger win.

Northern Iowa fought hard to get by UNLV, and you can bet Ali Farokhmanesh will find himself well-covered by taller, quicker players all night. No offense, but that’s probably a situation he finds himself in a lot during the year, yet he still gets his. But that makes the inside matchup that much more important. Cole Aldrich won’t destroy Eglseder, though he may outplay him. But the rest? Tough to see UNI keeping pace with that stacked KU lineup.

That first game took a lot out of the Panthers, and I think they put in a great deal of energy to adance to the 2nd round.

PLAY THE JAYHAWKS AND LAY THE POINTS

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#529 WASHINGTON HUSKIES ( -1.5 ) Vs. #530 New Mexico Lobos WINNER

The Huskies rallied from 15 points down in the second half Thursday behind red-hot outside shooting and the leadership of Quincy Pondexter to hand Marquette yet another NCAA Tournament heartbreak on the West Coast. While the seeding of these teams does have a range, not many would be surprised if Washington advanced to the Sweet 16.

Pondexter ranks in the top-30 in all of college basketball in offensive rating, Isaiah Thomas appears to be coming alive at the opportune time, and role players like Darnell Gant, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Elston Turner are contributing when called upon. The key for the Lobos will be continuing what they’ve done all season to win 30 games — balanced scoring from Darington Hobson, Roman Martinez and Dairese Gary, a top-25 efficient offense, not allowing second chances to the Huskies frontline and limiting turnovers. Hobson and Pondexter, two long forwards with all-around repertoires, should be one of the best individual matchups of round two.

PLAY THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS

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#515 St. Mary's Gaels Vs. #516 Villanova Wildcats

Had a lean on the Gaels, but was never able to make the play on time. I'm sorry for having us miss out on a winner, I hope some of you did take them for a win. BOL!!

BEST OF LUCK IF YOU FADE OR FOLLOW!!!

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