SL's Friday Round 1 Chatter (Paid Play and 2 Freebies UP)

 What's up fellas?  Yesterday was one of those days that I think the books did rather poorly.  We had a whole lot of favorites win, and the underdogs that won were in large part public backed as well.  It was a 1-1 day for me yesterday, lost my 1 unit freebie, won the 2* late nighter on the Montana Grizzlies.  Really wanted those guys to win that game outright.  Moving on to today, let's see if we can nail down another plus money day.  I've got two freebies today, and other than that, I'd be more than happy to answer questions on any games (other than my paid play of course).  

Official Free Plays:

Maryland -9.5 (1.1/1.0) -This one should be a shootout guys, and the reasoning behind this game is pretty simplistic, so I'll be brief.

Both these teams can score in bunches so what we're looking for is the team that will sustain consistent scoring, play better defense, rebound better, and make their free throws.  It just so happens, Maryland is the better team in each category. 

I'll be the first to admit just how much I love this Houston team.  Kelvin Lewis and Aubrey Coleman are really something else, but their shot selection is piss poor.  Both of these guys can get to the rim like it's nothing, yet both of them are content with 15 foot jump shots over a defenders hand.  Their shooting percentage has been low all year because of that.

On the other side of the ball you've got a Maryland team that is literally in the top 10 defenses in the nation.  They give up points, but only because their games are so fast.. they actually defend very well, and we see that in the field goal percentages their opponents shoot.   Houston on the other hand is one of those defensive teams that goes for bust every possession.  They take a ton of chances to force turnovers, and in the mean time they allow easy buckets.  Maryland has played some of the best defensive teams in the nation out in the ACC, any sort of pressure defense from Houston will be a cake walk in terms of what the Terps have seen this year.

In the other areas, it's simple.. Maryland has a better FT%, and Houston is flat out one of the worst rebounding teams in the tournament.... This line is quite high, and I think it's just begging for those folks that watched Houston in the Conference USA tourny to jump on the bandwagon... In reality, it's the perfect time to jump off!  1 unit on Maryland!

New Mexico St. +13 (1.1/1.0) - To me, this game is very very similar to the Montana game last night.  You've got a team that most people didn't think had a chance at making the dance, and they go out and grab the conference title in tournament time.  NMSU is flat out hot right now, simple as that.  Michigan St. is one of those teams that was on everyone's radar early in the year, as they are every year, and has flat out underperformed.  In my estimation, their struggled have been in large part to their lack of frontcourt efficiency.  Every year it seems MSU has a couple big bodies down low that pound the offensive boards and make it extremely tough on the opposition, this year they simply don't have that force.  In fact, NMSU is actually the taller team in the frontcourt with 7-footer Hamidu Rhaman in there. 

The thing about Michigan State is that they have really never been a great three point shooting team, and this year's club is no exception.  They love to get to the lane, knock down 12 foot jumpers, penetrate and dish, etc. and that's why the frontcourt presence is usually so huge, any missed shot comes off soft and is ripe for a put back.  They still do a fine job on the offensive glass, statistically, but this is one of those situations where people that go by stats don't know the whole story.  Having watched this team play a few times this year, it was apparent that teams with size (North Carolina, Illinois, Wisconsin, Florida) all kept MSU off the glass, and as a result the Spartans struggled.  NMSU has the one big body down low that i eluded to earlier, and they've also got very athletic forwards/guards that can hold their own on the glass as well.

Fact is, NMSU can shoot their way into any game.  This is a team that can heat up from deep in an instant, and as a result, no Spartan lead will be large enough.  Michigan St. has a long travel to this one, and just as we backed a Montana team that can shoot the lights out last night, we'll back an NMSU team that can shoot the lights out tonight.  Upsets in the tournament are stemmed from three pointers, take the points with teams that can knock em down fellas, especially when they're having to do no more traveling than they do for their standard conference trip. 1 unit on NMSU!

 Just an FYI... The two plays that were last left off the card were Temple, and Missouri

Tough to take Missouri knowing we'd have to win outright, that game should be very very close. Would have liked a line closer to 3.

By the way, I've seen this multiple times in the forums lately.. If you take an underdog that is like +1.5, and they cover, and then you tout "outright winner!!!!".... That's flat out laughable to me. 

And it's tough to take Temple, mainly because this line has dropped a bit.  I realize Cornell is a popular upset pick, but quite frankly, there's no way I'd back a team that depends on three pointers against a team that defends them better than any team I've seen all year.  Obviously, this will be a low scorer, so I don't see Temple running away.. and since Cornell CAN knock down the three, this game should stay close until late.  I have my true line at 6.  So there just isn't much edge there.

Personally, I stopped even going back and posted "winnner" or "loss" in any thread. I update my record with MY picks and not follows. I do not care if a game is and "outright" winner or a "cover"-----the net result is the same. And anyone that truly sees what I do and either fades or follows, knows damn well whether a game won or lost---GL today Sac.

davessler

Personally, I stopped even going back and posted "winnner" or "loss" in any thread. I update my record with MY picks and not follows. I do not care if a game is and "outright" winner or a "cover"-----the net result is the same. And anyone that truly sees what I do and either fades or follows, knows damn well whether a game won or lost---GL today Sac.

That's a good point, but I do see some value in posting "win" or "loss" next to a game.. I mean it does allow potential followers to see how you're doing without knowing the scores off the top of their head.  At the same time, being flashy with that (using excessive !!!!, or $$$$) is just ridonkulous.

Sac Lawson

davessler

Personally, I stopped even going back and posted "winnner" or "loss" in any thread. I update my record with MY picks and not follows. I do not care if a game is and "outright" winner or a "cover"-----the net result is the same. And anyone that truly sees what I do and either fades or follows, knows damn well whether a game won or lost---GL today Sac.

 

That's a good point, but I do see some value in posting "win" or "loss" next to a game.. I mean it does allow potential followers to see how you're doing without knowing the scores off the top of their head.  At the same time, being flashy with that (using excessive !!!!, or $$$$) is just ridonkulous.

I don't disagree, Sac. To me it's another way of keeping the ego out of the equation. Because excessive winning leads to excessive losing, eventually. If I was going to tout every win, then I should tout every loss exactly the same way. By doing NIETHER it is much easier to stay "mentally in the middle", if you know what I mean----and FWIW I totally agree with your Maryland analysis.

 The single most annoying part of this tournament is the fact that every single member of the public all of a sudden thinks they know what they're talking about. Everywhere I turn there is some idiot talking about which teams are overrated, which teams are going to upset people... For those that have actually been doing it all year, it's like nails on a chalkboard.   .. The real problem is that even when you jump in, they're just so stubborn that it doesn't matter.  I've heard the whole "They beat this team by this many points, and that team beat this team, so that team is better" logic wayyy too many times already.

Good luck today sac.  Love the new mex play.

Hahaha your right Sac.  It is annoying.  I also hate it when your in a pool with people who know you bet cbb all year and they act like you should hit every game.  Im like.."my bad i didnt pick ohio and murray st, did you see my st. marys and old dom pics?"  Damn give me a break. 

Sac Lawson

 The single most annoying part of this tournament is the fact that every single member of the public all of a sudden thinks they know what they're talking about. Everywhere I turn there is some idiot talking about which teams are overrated, which teams are going to upset people... For those that have actually been doing it all year, it's like nails on a chalkboard.   .. The real problem is that even when you jump in, they're just so stubborn that it doesn't matter.  I've heard the whole "They beat this team by this many points, and that team beat this team, so that team is better" logic wayyy too many times already.

The older you get, the less it bothers you!!!! If you listen (rather than trying to change someone's opinion) eventually that particular someone will just dig a hole they can't climb out of, all by themselves. My standard answer/retort----"you might be right"......with no "but". Relax brother------just make money.

Sac Lawson

 The single most annoying part of this tournament is the fact that every single member of the public all of a sudden thinks they know what they're talking about. Everywhere I turn there is some idiot talking about which teams are overrated, which teams are going to upset people... For those that have actually been doing it all year, it's like nails on a chalkboard.   .. The real problem is that even when you jump in, they're just so stubborn that it doesn't matter.  I've heard the whole "They beat this team by this many points, and that team beat this team, so that team is better" logic wayyy too many times already.

i knew i had a long lost brother somewhere.........