Yesterday's Plays
I apologize to anyone who followed me in what was easily my worst day since joining Pregame. 0-3 on the day, with a 1.5 unit included in there. Lost 3.85 units yesterday, a truly disastrous day. Loyola Marymount was the big play, and they fell short against Pacific, allowing the Tigers to shoot 60% from the field. Weber State couldn't cover, as Cincinnati suddenly found their stroke from distance. And Eastern Kentucky held the lead at the half, only to let it slip away.
Today's Play
The tournament is here, and while others may have many games in play on Thursday, I'm going to stay ultra selective. I have 3 strong leans, but will only be making 1 of them an official play. Here are my 2 leans which didn't make the final cut as an official play.
Old Dominion +2.5
Marquette -1.5
And my official play for tomorrow is ...
2* Play on Richmond(-2)
I love the Spiders here in this first round game. Richmond enters the tournament at 26-8, their opponents from St.Mary's enter at 26-5. I believe Richmond has distinct matchup advantages on the court, and situationally I feel St.Mary's is in a bad spot.
First off, let's look at where these teams have played recently and the results they've had. Richmond is coming off the A-10 championship game on Sunday in Atlantic City, NJ. They lost that game to Temple, but have nothing to be ashamed off, as at the end of that day, they were a #7 seed in the big dance. St.Mary's hasn't played for 10 days, but when they were last seen, they were in Las Vegas defeated their arch-rival, the Gonzaga Bulldogs, to win the WCC title and earn the automatic berth. This game for the Gaels was a game where they finally got over the hump. In 2009, the Gaels lost to Gonzaga 3 times, including in the WCC title game. And in 2009, they narrowly missed an at-large berth to the field of 65. Now in 2010, they had lost twice to Gonzaga before their last game. I believe that this Gaels team truly reached their goal when winning their last game. Winning the conference tournament and getting into the field of 65 was the goal for the Gaels, so the question becomes, what is left in the tank.
The Spiders hold significant advantages on the court in this game. First off, this team can really defend, something that St.Mary's is not used to seeing in the WCC. Frankly, no one plays defense in that conference, so the active matchup zone that Richmond runs will be hard to attack for the Gaels. This matchup zone will be hard to prepare for, especially with the limited preparation time available. The thing about St.Mary's offense which concerns me against this active zone is that the Gaels are a tall team with length down low, but they don't use that advantage to get to the free throw line. While the Gaels are tall, they are not physical. And what the Gaels lack is a guard who can penetrate and cause this zone to break down.
I feel another significant advantage for Richmond is their point guard, the dynamic Kevin Anderson. This kid can really drive the basketball and break down a defense, and I see him doing that with ease against a St.Mary's team who doesn't have anyone who can defend a quick guard. Kevin Anderson was named the A-10 player of the year and I expect a performance living up to that billing in this game. Anderson efficiently runs coach Chris Mooney's modified Princeton offense. Again, this is a unique offense which will be very tough to prepare for. I say this is a modified Princeton style offense because Richmond runs an up-tempo pace of the offense, allowing Anderson to push the pace when he sees fit. I believe Anderson will be able to find the opportunities to take advantage of St.Mary's lack of defense, and get easy buckets because of it. I don't see St.Mary's finding those same easy buckets on the other end of the court.
The saying goes, guard play wins in March. Richmond has the guards, between Anderson and David Gonzalvez (a sweet shooting 2-guard). And last time I checked, this is March Madness. St.Mary's is coming off a huge victory in which they accomplished a goal they've been trying to reach for 2 years. Now they have to travel 3 time zones, from just outside San Francisco, to Providence, and face a team in Richmond which present many problems for them. I really feel the advantages in this game call for a 2 unit play, so I'm playing the Spiders minus the 2 points in this one.
Good luck to everyone on this first day of March Madness! And remember to narrow your selections to only the best, don't fall into the trap of playing too many games. If you have any thoughts or predictions on this game, I'd love to hear them. Thanks for reading everyone! Let's get this one.
Your boy,
The Brick
Have to say, it put a smile on my face when I saw this as a Mike Hook play. Always a good sign to be on the same side as him.