Let's just get right into this.. it's been one of those mornings for me. Every play on the leans list ends up getting knocked off it seems..... I'll go through a few..
Freebie:
Rhode Island -5 (1.1/1.0) - Not many mid-major teams can match the size of Northwestern, but URI is a team that definitely can. There is some great size on both sides of the ball tonight, although I'd say URI has the athletic advantage . That being said, I think the rebounding will be even, and defensively there shouldn't be too many mismatches. Fact is this though, URI can flat out score, especially at home. They'll push the tempo if given the opportunity, in fact, they score 83 points per game at home this year. Northwestern, being out of the Big Ten, obviously doesn't want to play that way.. but for whatever reason, when they travel, they get burned on defense, giving up 74 ppg which is 13 more than they give up at home. I simply cannot justify backing Northwestern when they haven't won a road game in two months. They've had tons of bad road losses in conference play, and today they face a Rhode Island team that is, quite frankly, more talented, more athletic, and has just as much size. To summarize...the difference is athleticism, ability to score at home (or inability to stop people on the road), and a complete lack of road success in general for Northwestern. Rhode Island is led by three dynamic seniors, there is no way they'll go down lightly in what would be their final home game, and final game overall in the event they lose. Northwestern plays a lot of young guys, and no doubt they're looking toward the future. I heard my buddy Mike Hook say this yesterday about Fairfield (a team with a few senior leaders), and it holds the same weight today for Rhode Island.. This is a team playing in the NOW, they've got senior leaders and this may be the last year for them to have some tournament success for a couple seasons... Northwestern, on the other hand, is looking down the road at a better year next year, they only lose one senior, so they have a lot of improving to do. Take URI to keep this season going, and hell, maybe make a run at this tournament title!
Sac Lawson Twitter - Follow Away!
- I tried very hard to take Memphis today. I really think that line is set to draw money on SJ. Fact is, SJ is physical but inconsistent. Memphis has plenty of scorers to by a ton, especially at home.
That being said.. Two free play leans remaining:
Rhode island
Tulsa
May play both, may play neither..
Portland/NoCo
Totally wanted to take Portland. Very Badly wanted to take Portland. This is an experienced team, used to making tough trips to St. Mary's, Gonzaga, etc. This is nothing new for these guys, traveling to Greeley. Portland gets back Raivio tonight which is huge. The guy is a senior, he's a leader, and there's no doubt he'll want to keep his career going, seeing as he's been out for four weeks. On top of that Northern Colorado is without Devon Beitzel, one of their top scorers and team leaders. Now, that being said, both teams are going to shoot a lot of threes, and it really is a coin flip who comes out ahead. NoCo is going for a home wins record tonight, this is already the first time they've made it to NCAA postseason play, so I have no doubt they're fully motivated, and I'm not quite sure Portland is equally motivated. Portland lost in the first round of this tourny last year to Pacific, and I'd imagine this game to be identical to that one (which came right down to the wire).
What's up Sac, I got a lean to princeton tonite they play great d. duq doesn't doesn't rebound well is not good offensivly and is smaller than princeton I could see princeton winning 59-51. But this ttl of 121 scares me a little it makes me think that duq will be able to score a little if so they definately cover maybe win. I also got leans to Tulsa play good d and are a great def reb team and play much bigger than kent. And Akron they reb better play better d and don't give as many easy baskets.
Yahoo CFB Pickem ATS Champ 168-111 60% Pregame Hilton 48-37 56%
I also really want to play wich st. what are they 15-1 16-0 @h. Nevada not good on rd terrible off reb(210) team Wichst. great def rebound(2) team means no second chances for nevada and some fastbreaks for wich. Also wich plays great d and nevada play no d I dont think they know how to spell defense.
elijah83 I also really want to play wich st. what are they 15-1 16-0 @h. Nevada not good on rd terrible off reb(210) team Wichst. great def rebound(2) team means no second chances for nevada and some fastbreaks for wich. Also wich plays great d and nevada play no d I dont think they know how to spell defense.
Yes, yes, yes, and yes. Honestly, I started with that game with a lean to Nevada, and ended up at an absolute no play. If my initial lean was Wichita, I'd probably have money on them already this morning. Wichita is definitely a sound bet for each and every reason you just mentioned. You simply cannot trust Nevada on the road to score with the same kind of consistency they do at home, and the fact that they don't play great defense or rebound well for that matter just makes them more risky on the road. I just wish this line was 6 or so.
elijah83 What's up Sac, I got a lean to princeton tonite they play great d. duq doesn't doesn't rebound well is not good offensivly and is smaller than princeton I could see princeton winning 59-51. But this ttl of 121 scares me a little it makes me think that duq will be able to score a little if so they definately cover maybe win. I also got leans to Tulsa play good d and are a great def reb team and play much bigger than kent. And Akron they reb better play better d and don't give as many easy baskets.
Haha it's funny that a line of 121 makes us lean to the higher scoring team... I do like Princeton, they are one of the best teams in the nation in ATS win % and that's because they D up like crazy. Vegas keeps setting single digit lines, thinking that any time a game is played in the 40's and 50's it's tough to win by double digits.. but Princeton keeps pulling out big wins with little points. I leaned to that side as well, but like you said.. If this game is played in the 60 point range.. Duquesne is doing something right. Ultimately the value is still on Princeton though, IMO.
Definitely like Tulsa, as i eluded to earlier.. Only concern is the fact that Kent St. is ALL seniors, pretty much. And the fact that Tulsa is without their starting Point Guard.. Both issues on the road. Definitely like Jordan down low for Tulsa though, Kent St. will not have an answer for him... problem is, he doesn't get as many touches as he should.
Just wanted to say thanks for the 3 freebie winners yesterday bro
I was asked to post my leans in the capper thread yesterday and after looking over everyone's picks I advised everyone to play your 3 freebies.
I mean, what's not to love? Especially when you see how I party man, it's epic. The run I was on made Sinatra, Flynn, Jagger, Richards, all of them, just look like droopy-eyed, armless children.
I'm tired of pretending I'm not a total bitchin' rock star from Mars.
I am on a drug – it’s called Charlie Sheen. It’s not available because if you try it, you will die. Your face will melt off and your children will weep over your exploded body.
I’m not bi-polar, I’m bi-winning. I win here and I win there.
I probably took more than anybody could survive. I was banging seven-gram rocks. Because that’s how I roll. I have one speed. I have one gear: Go.
The only thing I’m addicted to right now is winning.
StewJust wanted to say thanks for the 3 freebie winners yesterday bro I was asked to post my leans in the capper thread yesterday and after looking over everyone's picks I advised everyone to play your 3 freebies.
Shit man.. I did not know that.. Appreciate the support, and glad they all fell into place!