Listen guys, I'm not like everyone else.. I'm not going to hype this time of year up as something it's not. Yes, as a fan it's a fun time of the year. But from an investment standpoint, treating this portion of the season as more important than any other will only lead to a financial downfall. Bet the same amount of games, the same amount of money, and you'll have the same amount of success you've had all year.. That's a FACT. Obviously, there are different intangibles that go into the handicapping itself, but it doesn't change the fact that it's one game of basketball, and one daily card that is equal in size to the weekday cards we've seen all year long. I could be like every other capper and tell you that I've been up non stop since Sunday working on the NCAA card, but that'd be a lie, and quite frankly it'd be stupid. I worked my ass off all season long, and there is absolutely no need for me to change how much time I put in, or when my routine begins. Pleaaaase, do not fall into this hype. Anyone that is telling you this time of year is so important that they already have their first round plays mapped out, is clearly not taking the necessary time on the NIT card and/or clearly was half assing it all season when they were putting plays out just hours before the games tipped. CONSISTENCY in handicapping is key. Not just in results, but in routine. My routine will not change, and because of that I don't expect the results to change. But that's just me. I think it sends out a poor message to clients telling them that all of a sudden I look at games 5 days in advance when apparently I wasn't working hard enough to do that during the regular season. I glanced at games and matchups down the road during the regular season, but there are games in between then and now, and those are the ones I'm focused on today. Let's kick this thing off right.....
Official Free Plays:
VCU -2.5 (1.1/1.0) - This one comes down to experience.... 6 out of George Washington's top 8 players are underclassmen. They have no experience in postseason tournament play, and although they have the home court tonight, they simply will not have what it takes to take down a VCU team that is full of guys that have played in HUGE games. VCU is a team we are used to seeing in the NCAA tournament, but they fell just short this year to an ODU team that beat them with pure size. VCU's downfall this year was against teams with size, and that's not something they'll see from GW. George Washington has some size, but nothing that VCU's big man Larry Sanders can't handle by himself. It's the teams with size at the guard positions that really give Commonwealth fits. Fact is, both teams play exceptional defense, but VCU is a team that can play in the 80's on any given night. They've got tons and tons of scorers, love to push the tempo, and that alone will get GW out of their comfort zone. George Washington is a team that likes to play in the 60's, because quite frankly, they don't have many pure shooters. We could very well see VCU simply out score George Washington tonight. I like VCU's tenacity on the offensive glass, I like their scorers, and I like the experience they bring to the table for this game. Larry Sanders, Joey Rodriguez, Ed Nixon, TJ Gwynn... All guys that have played huge NCAA tournament games, all guys that know what they're doing in postseason play. They've got experience in the frontcourt, in the backcourt, and everywhere in between. Simply have got to roll with a team that is more efficient offensively, equal defensively, more efficient on the glass, and way more experienced. VCU as the road favorite!
Fairfield +1 (1.1/1.0) - This one is a bit weird because I have Fairfield, literally, 50 spots higher in my Power Rankings. Mason is a team that lost 7 of their last 9 games, and although they have the home court advantage tonight, that's just about the only advantage they have. George Mason plays decent defense, but is 100% guard oriented and very young. 7 out of the 8 guys they'll play are underclassmen, and only one of them is over 6'6. When you think of a guard oriented team, you think of a team that can knock down some jumpers.. that's just it though, they don't! Fairfield has TONS of size. Anthony Johnson is listed at 6'9, but his wingspan is massive, and he plays like he's a seven footer. Ryan Olander is a 7 footer, and they have two guards in Ivanovich and (the other) Johnson who are both over 6'7. The size advantage will be massive tonight, and as a result the rebounding advantage will be massive. Fact is though, Fairfield is a better shooting team as well. Ivanovich and Crawford are both sharp shooters, and Derek Needham is a future Player of the Year in the Metro. Listen, I realize G-Mason's home court advantage is a very big one, but they don't have the size or talent that Fairfield does. On top of that, Fairfield played one hell of a game against Siena in the Tournament Final last week, and that was played on Siena's home floor. They've proven they can win on the road, they've proven they can compete with the upper echelon teams in the nation. And in my eyes, they've proven they have a perfect balance of size and speed to be able to make a run at this CIT tournament title. Take Fairfield here as a small dog, they get it done easily!
NC State/South Florida UNDER 127 (1.1/1.0) - My Goodness they've figured it out!! NC St. finished the year winning 5 of their last 7, and the key was DEFENSE. Looking at their numbers for the season, you'll see that their games actually hang around the 135 range, but 7 of their last 8 games have seen at least one team in the 50's, and as a result they've been successful. This Wolfpack team is one that simply does not have a lot of pure scorers. They can't go out on a nightly basis and score 80 points with the amount of talent that's in the ACC. It took them all year to figure that out, but they finally did it! Down the home stretch they became much more patient on offense, and much more fundamental on defense. The result was low scoring games. South Florida is a team that has been one of the lower scoring teams in the Big East all year.. Not only is their tempo quite a bit slower than the majority of the Big East teams, but they've never heard of three point shots, and they don't shoot free throws very well. When it comes to three pointers, there is not one guy on the South Florida roster that would have the green light on my team, not one. Fact is, three point shots are easy to get. Teams that are comfortable jacking up threes are able to get shots very early in the clock, where as teams that don't shoot threes allow defenses to pack the paint which in turn makes it difficult/time consuming to get an open look inside. USF had the luxury of playing some extremely uptempo clubs (providence, S-Hall, Nova etc) this season and as a result their scoring numbers are inflated just as NC State's are (which i eluded to earlier). Fact is, both these teams play slower than their Point Per Game numbers will tell you. They both fell into higher scoring games in their respective conferences due to the uptempo nature of many of their opponents. Both these teams want to play games in the 60's and if you're NC State, maybe even the 50's. Neither team shoots three pointers very well, neither team shoots free throws very well, but both teams know how to defend, and that'll be the name of the game tonight.
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Northeastern/UCONN - Wouldn't touch this game.. I think 7.5 is a very accurate line. I would have loved to jump on Northeastern at 10, but the bottom fell out. Fact is, I trust Northeasterns veteran leaders to play more disciplined, and expect them to be the more excited team. But there is no denying that Uconn has a huge size/physicality advantage, and if Allen and Janning aren't knocking down three's for Northeastern it'll be a long night. PASS. With a slight lean to the OVER.
Jackson St./Miss St.
I know a lot of people will look to fade Miss St. after their bubble burst, but be careful here. Jackson St. is not a great team, they're sloppy, struggle to score, and the only size they have is in the form of underclassmen. Motivation is definitely a question for MSU, but fact is, this Jackson St. team hasn't beaten anyone in the top 250 in college basketball. They started the year 0-10 for a reason, and that's because they struggle outside of the comfort of the Southwestern Conference (the worst in the nation if i may). They will struggle again, and 22 points really isn't all that much for a MSU team that can get every single offensive rebound, and score nearly every time down the floor on this Jackson St. club.
Status Update:
3 free plays, 1 paid play. All locked and loaded now. Yes, it's a 4 play day for me. I only played 11 games last week, and skipped monday, so I'm not concerned about this being a high volume day, because we've had some relaxing days leading up to it.. I like to play around 15 plays per week, this week may be closer to 18 (which was my average plays during November and December non conference play).
Sac, Love the freebies was already leaning in those directions myself. What are your thoughts on the play in game tonight. I see alot of money coming in on winthrop. Looking at how these teams play I see a close game. Neither team is very potent offensivly but both are strong defensive teams. Plus ArkPB is slightly better at both off and def rebounding and do not give up many easy buckets as they rank 39th in 2pt % allowed. With all this I feel like if I can get 5pts its worth a play.
Yahoo CFB Pickem ATS Champ 168-111 60% Pregame Hilton 48-37 56%
elijah83 Sac, Love the freebies was already leaning in those directions myself. What are your thoughts on the play in game tonight. I see alot of money coming in on winthrop. Looking at how these teams play I see a close game. Neither team is very potent offensivly but both are strong defensive teams. Plus ArkPB is slightly better at both off and def rebounding and do not give up many easy buckets as they rank 39th in 2pt % allowed. With all this I feel like if I can get 5pts its worth a play.
Well now, hold on here... Pine Bluff is better statistically in those categories because their conference is literally the worst in college basketball. They started 0-11 on the year... those non conference games are the ones you want to look at. Quite frankly, it's a huge disadvantage to get used to playing mediocre opponents like Pine Bluff has since they started the year with a very tough schedule. I feel like their expectations of real competition are far inferior to what they'll get tonight from Winthrop.. That being said, Winthrop is one of the worst shooting teams I've ever seen. And they play entirely too fast for their own good. A team like Winthrop, that simply has no jump shooters should be playing at a snail's pace. They're not crazy fast, but they certainly try and get 55-60 shots an evening, and when you shoot in the 40% range, there's nothing efficient about that. I honestly can't trust Winthrop, knowing that they can shoot 33% with the extra nerves involved, but I can't trust Pine Bluff either knowing that they've played shitty opponents for the last two months and been unable to score themselves against said opponents. I set my fair line at 3.5, but my true line is closer to 2. I think Winthrop wins, but that line is value-less in my opinion.
good point they played a murder's row 11strait rd gms against top competition then played cupcakes comparetively the rest of the year. So how much stock can you put into these stats that I feel are very important to who wins and loses a bball game. For instance later this week vandy plays murry st. Stats wise murry st. is better off,def effiencey better off,def reb. So I say well murry st. is a better team than I thought but vandy comes from a tougher conference played a tougher schedule and is actually the better team. So when I made my line based on ratings I made Vandy-6 but when I added somes stats I made vandy-3.5 is this even close?
Alright guys.. All writeups are now up (paid and free plays). My work is just about done for the day! Those of you that follow know that I'm out of the house for most of the mornings on weekdays, and that's the case again today. If you have questions, I can answer them from my phone while I'm out if they don't involve a lengthy explanation, but other than that, I promise to get back to you around noon Pacific when I'm back home. Enjoy the morning, and let's get goin'!
elijah83 good point they played a murder's row 11strait rd gms against top competition then played cupcakes comparetively the rest of the year. So how much stock can you put into these stats that I feel are very important to who wins and loses a bball game. For instance later this week vandy plays murry st. Stats wise murry st. is better off,def effiencey better off,def reb. So I say well murry st. is a better team than I thought but vandy comes from a tougher conference played a tougher schedule and is actually the better team. So when I made my line based on ratings I made Vandy-6 but when I added somes stats I made vandy-3.5 is this even close?
Very very close to what I have. I had my Fair line (vegas line) at 4... and my true line at 6 (just as you did). Murray St. can play, there's no doubt about that.. I watched them very closely against California earlier this year and they impressed the shit out of me. Cal would go on 10-0 runs, and this team just flat out did not get flustered. For a small school playing on the road against a team that was ranked in the top 15 in the nation at that point.... I mean that really was something else. That being said, California has no size. Murray st. has yet to face a team with a mix of BOTH talent and size. Vandy's size is something that is definitely the one question that you've got to answer when capping that game. Can Murray St. handle the size of Vandy? Quite frankly, i don't think so. I can see Murray St. getting into some foul trouble, really ruining the flow of the game, and struggling to get on the boards as well. But, then again, they're a team that can shoot the lights out, and in a game where their emotions will be at an all-time high, who knows, maybe they shoot 70% from deep.. we seem to see that every year from at least one team.
SAC, if you have a little time and these 2 games are noyt on your radar can you drop a quick hint. I have looke at all the stats so I will save you that,blah blah portion.
Tenn./SDST. At first glance I liked Tenn because of the defense, however SDST. play solid D and there top 3-4 guys look as if they can play with Hopson, Chism, & Gang. When I was done I was tossed on this game.
The other game is Maryland and Houston. I loved how Houston played to get in but Coleman was contained, & they play sloppy D-but force a ton of TO. Maryland has some good/great guard play & more importantly can turn it up on the Defensive end allowing only 38% FG. I like Maryland, but -9 points. I see a 15 point stomping or a 3 pt. game. ????