Sharp Cookie's CBB Tourney GOY! (2-1 day + GOY Winner!)

 I know, I know. You guys hate these "GOYs" but this is honsetly the best value across the board and as lines get tighter in the next rounds, there won't be more value than this game right here, and we could get even more value.

Washington +1.5 (2 if you wait or shop for the best lines): Washington could not have asked for a more perfect situation. Marquette has to travel across country to Pac-10 country to play Washington in San Jose. This team is rolling and flying high with confidence. They've won 7 straight games and their last 6 were on neutral or road court, while shooting a lot better and defending even better.

Marquette scores a lot of points from 3 and Washington is lock down from the perimeter. Also, the reason Marquette wins games and creates mismatches is because of Lazar Hayward. But, luckily Washington has an almost identical and probably better player with Quincy Pondexter. Pondexter is a big time NBA prospect talent wise and NBA talent wins in the tourney and can lead to upsets. 

In the 11-6 game last year, Marquette barely beat Utah State in a West Coast game. But, this Marquette team has really fallen off, losing 4 big senior leaders and have almost no depth while Washington is better than that Utah State team. With the way Washington runs and can get you in foul trouble, Marquette could get blown out, but I definitely think Washington wins, rather easily.

This does a have a chance to lose because it is March Madness for a reason, but Washington steps up in big games and down the stretch and I think they win. Washington is my GOY.

Play Washington +1.5 (but possibly wait for +2).

I also have some other leans:

Florida +4.5: BYU struggles against athletic, quick teams much like the Gators and Billy Donavan always pushes the right buttons in March wether it's the NCAAs or NITs.

Vandy -3: I don't understand this line at all but Murray State is gaining a lot of public and sharp support to pull an upset. I like the other side because Vandy is much bigger and more talented and you better believe they have themselves on upset alert, especially after missing the tourney last year and getting blown out by Siena in the first round two years ago.

Missouri +1.5: The Big 12 is way up this year and the ACC was not good, and that's from a guy in ACC country. Clemson struggled and lost against NC State with them pressing in the ACC tourney, and that will be racheted up 100 degrees with Missouri, who's more talented and runs "40 minutes of Hell". I like MIssouri easy here.

San Diego State +3.5: Everyone's on Tennessee, but know this. They have not won or really stayed close with any above average team outside of their own building. SDSU has three guys who can take over games and have recently. This team is playing it's best ball all year and all these overperforming guys for the Vols are starting to wear down. Steve Fisher has led some improbable runs in the tourney (see 1989 Michigan) and all those games were close, meaning he can bring it in crunch time. This young team is starting to come together, expect SDSU to pull the outright upset or Tennessee needing a buzzer beater to win.

BUMP!

Good luck buddy. Dan and I were just talking about how the PAC 10 likely has some value based on the perception that the Pac10 is so weak. While i agree in principle, certainly Washington and Cal are talented.

Good luck buddy!

Mike Hook

Good luck buddy. Dan and I were just talking about how the PAC 10 likely has some value based on the perception that the Pac10 is so weak. While i agree in principle, certainly Washington and Cal are talented.

Good luck buddy!

 

Thanks, Mike. I was just reading Chad Millman's blog and Teddy Covers feels the same way and likes Washington to advance.

  Like the play SC.  I might add it to my card.

I'm good with the team name for King of the Hill

....The Covers

Has a nice ring to it.

 

Good luck to you this week

 I am not getting this Murray/Vandy thing at all. Murray only beat one top 100 team in KenPom's power rating system, and that was #97 Morehead State, who they actually lost to on the road. Vandy is much bigger, more talented, and comes to play on the big stage. With the small line of 3, Vandy could win by double digits

I'm also crossing off Florida because everyone's on BYU. Missouri has also moved to 1.5 which makes me like it even more. They can definitely play in the tourney as we saw last year and have much more experience than Clemson, who hasn't made it out of the NCAA first rounds since 1997, when Rick Barnes was still coaching them.

 

 with you on washington and missouri boss!! let's start with some winners 'The Covers'!!

FWIW Clemson and Missouri are almost mirror images of each other. Depending on what happens with the line, I am seriously consider a big play on the under (and a prop bet on the OVER number of turnovers---there will be a lot).

i would wish you luck any other time, but i got Marquette to win East region + 1700 and i know that they either lose first round or go deep in tourney. Well see though. goodluck on ur other plays!

davessler

FWIW Clemson and Missouri are almost mirror images of each other. Depending on what happens with the line, I am seriously consider a big play on the under (and a prop bet on the OVER number of turnovers---there will be a lot).

 

Definitely agreed on the turnovers, Dave. But, just saw one stat on Ken Pom and that almost locked the pick on Mizzou.

Missoursi is #2 in the country in forcing steals and 64th in avoiding them. Clemson is 5th in the country in steals although they do it on 1.3% less possessions, but are 310th in avoiding them. Plus, both of these teams gets a lot of cheap fouls and send teams to the line but Missouri is a top 50 free throw shooting team and Clemson is outside of the top 250.