TUE Ark-Pine-Bluff v Winthrop just what we HOPED for

(YET - This line moved 2.5 pts off good number while drafting this write-up
Wager is 1 UNIT Lower as result...arrgghh)

Arkansas-Pine Bluff (17-15) vs Winthrop (19-13)

HOPED The Lions would be in this,
Followed tm minor interest since brief write-up back in DEC 09,
fter A-PB played in the Valley at Ore.

Ark-Pine Bluff sat as a simply fascinating 0-11 SWAC Tm:
P-Bluff didn't PLAY SINGLE HM GM till GM #15
& at time of write-up, finished OOC Section of 'Pay-4-Play' Rd swing at:
Colo
Denver
UTEP
Akron
Ariz St
Mich
Okie St
Ga Tech
Mizzou
K-St
Ore

Premise is this:
Arkansas-Pine Bluff played ALL these TOP QUALITY TMS remarkably close, considering the Venue, overall talent of ANY SWAC Tm:
Colo L-16
Denver L-19
UTEP L-18
Akron L-3
Ariz St L-17
Mich L-14
Okie St L-15
Ga Tech
Mizzou L-18
K-St L-14
Ore L-20
 
ALL 'CEPT DUCKS, Ark-PB stayed competitive, UNDER-20

CLEAR CONF FAVORITE
Pine-Bluff was disappointing 6-3* at Mid-Season
Including 1-3, Close Gms
* Ken Pomeroy had Ark-Pine Bluff at 50% ODD to Finish Conf UNBEATEN

SINCE this time, Pine Bluff is 11-1
Including a superior 7-1 in close gms (2-0 OT)

P-Bluff Scoring Def in Last Dozen Gms is exceptional:
SWAC Tourney, Pine Bluff alwd:
38
44
66 (Miss Val)

Tossing out Two WINS over Top 4% Tempo Miss Val St, Pine-Bluff avg Scor Def, last 10 Gm:
50.7 PPG
(ALL 12 Gms, avg 53.4 PPG alwd)

In just 4 Gms on LVSC, Ark-P Blff is 1-3 O-U

Winthrop has also found their winning formula by getting gm down to reasonable pace, and reducing possessions.

Winthrop Toppling Conf Reg Season Champ, Coastal Carolina on the ROAD Teal Court ought to make Eagles a very compelling pick at +4.5.

WINTHROP closing 1-3, w/ONLY win over Asheville (in OT) belies fact the 3 Losses were all on Rd vs Upper-Tier Big South Tms
AND Winthrop had finished a Seven Gm Win Streak before the ending 4 Gms

PINE-BLUFF had disastrous Legal Issues a few weeks ago in Late Feb, apparently on hold and hasn't been effecting this highly experienced Tm:

Ark-Pine Bluff starts FOUR Sr's & 1 Soph
YET, undersized
APB Big-Gun, 6-8 Sr LaBron Weathers
Will probably resume role of Cross-Switching onto
Winthrop 6-10 Sr Buechert

Winthrop relies heavily on overtaxed & under experienced bench

SINCE BOTH these tms are DREADFUL in  so many OFF-EFFICIENCY Categories, I MUST Play the under, esp with the Number being so reasonable:

As we've eluded to so many times,
ONE EFFECTIVE was to truly gage these two teams numbers in the most appropriate context is to look at CONF ONLY-Stats, ESP since:
CONF RANKINGS - RPI
#28 Big South (Winthrop)
#32 SWAC (Arkansas-Pine Bluff)
Tms like Winthrop & A-PB:
Simular Conf Win % Placement
Simular Power-Rating/CONF
[4.5 to 5 M-o-Error if Conf Win% was w/in 0.178]
In other words - Comparing Conf-Only Stats Proves time-and-again to be GENUINE, accurate methodology

w/this in Mind, Looking at P Bluff & Winthrop highlights the UNDER-Heavy Numbers far more than Flat WHOLE SEASON Numbers Can:

CONF-ONLY

Off-FG%
ARK-P BLF: 42.1 (#215 ALL CONF ONLY)
WINTHROP: 39.7 (#311 ALL CONF ONLY)

Def FG%
ARK-P BLF: 37.3 (#1 ALL CONF-ONLY)
WINTHROP: 39.0 (#3 Conf Only) 

Many, many more numbers back these up, including Ark-P Bluff Avg 59-53 Score:

One factor keeping this from significantly LG wager:
A-PB tendency to FOUL & GET FOULED. 

Despite Lions' Weak (& getting weaker) FT%: 66.3% Ov'l
64.8% Conf

A-PB commits whopping 22.3 PF/Gm &
Draws more astounding 23.2 PF/GM,

Translates to A-PB #1 FT Rate in CONF-PLAY, D-1
A-PB Shoots 29.5 FT/GM!
A-PB Allows 28.4 FT/Gm!

It looks like this works out w/Under, however.
WINTHP even lower than A-PB FT%: 63.6% Conf

WINTHP lower avg FT Att/Gm, also

The real caparison is Effective FG%:
A-PB is #2 Conf-Stats in eFG%:  41.6% (unreal #)
Wnthp is 22nd WORST eFG% Off-Tm:  43.6%

3-Pt Shooting?
Winthrop Makes (4.8) Allows (5.2)
Ark-Pine Bluff Makes (4) Allows (4.3)
EXCEPTIONALLY Low Numbers

Bottom-Line:
Winthrop & Pine Bluff Play at Low-Third-Pace
And are largely successful when each plays as deliberate as possible

Each tm is NOT ONLY thin in Overall stats (which we'd understand as skewed to many gms vs vastly superior "BCS Conf" Tms, but in many cases, EVEN MORE DRASTICALLY insufficient in Conf:
Asst/T-Over ratio for each is LESS than 1-1.
T-Over Rate, CONF in 300's for each

Methodical Def & Tempo, even if not outward Goal in each possession, eventually a dictated each tms success.

Nearly every stat imaginable lands on the under:

I really see this as 55-53 A-PB Score
(KEN POMEROY: Winthrop 57-55)

1 UNIT
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF vs WINTHROP | UNDER 114

BTW, Working feverishly on BOSTON U TERRIERS;
comin' in here WED,
B.U at Oregon State, CBI First Rd)

 

   Nice Work as always there S B

will take a hard look at the Under now

 114 ..that's a tough tough #

 60-55 and boom your a loser

looking forward to your pack ten break down

 IMO TEMPLE AND CORNELL GOT HOSED

Every one around here is jumping on the Siena train also

  best couple of weeks of the year here

 let's roll

 be well champ 

 

 

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 Absolutely amazing analysis. Great work!

 60-55 and boom your a loser

GREAT PT - why the initial 117.5 was potentially a bigger play

Thanks guys

 Followed your in depth analysis and cashed in. Thanks for making this play a no brainer and omg was it ugly to watch!

Thanks, kev....I think we'd agree - it's sort of a 'GOOD UGLY' when the stink-fest CASHES!?  lol

I also wish I'd have had time to nudge this up a smidge when the OVER Cash started tumbling in late.....had it reached 117 Thirty Min before Tip, I'd have done just damn near anything to get in and do just that.....but we'll take a 2-0 night to Start Post-Season Play any ol night.

Glad it worked out.  I really appreciate all the great comments and feedback.  Makes all the Grinding and work even more worthwhile.

Thanks guys