SL's Selection Sunday Stuff (Paid Play UP)

 What's up fellas... Paid play is up.. Coming off a Push on the paid play last night.  I know many people got this as a WIN, and I've said time and time again, I'd rather be able to post the play early so as many people can easily access it as possible than post the best number.  That's just me though.  I try and let people know when i think they should wait it out, and quite frankly it's just proof that I care more about you guys winning than me being able to tout another win in my record.  That being said, short card today, but I love the Big Ten Championship game.  That's where my paid play is today, and with a tip off at 12:30 Pacific, make sure you get it early if you're looking to follow along.

That being said, Questions always welcome.. but I look to quickly breakdown each matchup in just a moment...

 Georgia Tech/Duke: I have to admit, two months ago I woulda told you to go with GT hands down.  Duke was a team that really struggled against some of the bigger lineups on their schedule early on.  They were outrebounded, and pushed around in the paint.  G-Tech even did it to em earlier in the season.  Fact is though, that trend has not held true throughout the year.  Over the last month and a half Duke has upped their physicality, and actually exploited teams with size by pressuring their mediocre guards.  Speaking of mediocre guards and pressure... Georgia Tech is actually one of the worst teams in the nation when it comes to turnovers.  You usually wouldn't see that from a team that has been so successful this season, but fact is, they have a hell of a time hanging onto the rock.  Against Duke's pressure defense that'll be a big issue.

Now, that being said, I can't say I'm surprised with Duke's intensity in this specific Tournament.  They allowed Virginia to lead for 25 minutes of their game the other night.  Allowed Miami to lead for 20 minutes, and then after gaining a large lead, allowed Miami to make a comeback and only lose by three.  

If Duke can pressure the ball and force turnovers, I fully expect them to route.  In fact, Duke SHOULD route this Tech team.  Fact is though, the focus hasn't been their for 40 minutes.  I'm not willing to risk any money that we'll see a good Duke performance for 40 minutes, but if we do, this game will not be close.  I would lean just a hair to the UNDER if i had to.  Duke has simply not pushed the tempo much in this tournament, and defense is definitely their focus in big games.  It'll be a game played right in that 140 range, so if it does go under it'll be close.  But that'd be my only remote lean.

 MSU/Kentucky - Kentucky's huge advantage night in and night out is their size, and specifically, their rebounding edge.  It's hard not to think Vernado will void that advantage.  MSU is actually not a great rebounding team, at least for a team with the size that they have at every position.  Fact is though, they don't allow teams to crash the offensive glass, and they don't allow teams to get into the lane.  Kentucky loves to get to the line, loves to attack the paint.. The simple presence of Vernado down low is enough to keep teams out of the lane, and even with Kentucky's talent, they are no exception.  

These two played an Overtime game earlier in the season in their only meeting, with Kentucky barely coming out ahead.  Honestly though, MSU should have won that one in regulation, had a 6 point lead with 3 minutes left and blew it.  Somehow MSU was able to shoot just 38% from the field, 28% from three, and be called for 11 more fouls than Kentucky.. yet STILL take that game to OT.  That right there tells me something.  MSU played a shit game in terms of shooting, and on top of it the referees were against them.  If MSU plays decent, makes their jumpers, continues to control the lane there is no reason they can't win this game outright.  I do lean to MSU here, actually.  That being said, these youngsters from kentucky are motivated and enthusiastic day in and day out, and they continue to impress me.  I won't be against them, but if you do, be ready for me to say "i told you so."

I lean OVER here as well.  I think it'll be a close contest with some fouling at the end, and I also thought the last game these two played was played at a blistering pace.  They only had 135 at the end of regulation.. but neither team was shooting over 40% at that point.  Any sort of decent shooting performance can easily send this one OVER.

 Temple/Richmond: This one is tough because Richmond is so dependent on jump shots, yet they shoot them so well.  It's always risky in my opinion taking a team that relies 100% on jumpers, any sort of off night will ruin them.  Fact is, Temple is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, and I don't see Richmond's shots falling with the kind of intensity that will be brought at them, especially this being their third game in three days.  BUT, Richmond did hand Temple their worst loss of the season earlier this year, and that's gotta make you nervous.  Putting up over 70 poitns against Temple is quite the accomplishment, and that alone is forcing me to stay away.

 Neither team gets to the line, neither team plays with too much speed. This game will be slow and methodical, with the winning team being the one that hangs on to the basketball, rebounds well, and makes three pointers.  I'll keep this short, because I find this one very hard to call.  I'd slightly lean to Temple, just because of these two great defensive teams i think they have a slight edge on that side of the ball, and I also think that they have a substantial rebounding advantage.  Be careful with this one either way.  Definitely shouldn't be anyone's large bet of the day.

Good morning, SL. I would take the Bucks over the Pistons. Nice run you're on.

Good stuff Sac.  Nice write up.  Thanks for the input.

davessler

Good morning, SL. I would take the Bucks over the Pistons. Nice run you're on.

Haha I know right?  The Piston's aren't playing today.. so for the Bucks to not score 9.5 more points than them would be MONUMENTAL.

Sac Lawson

davessler

Good morning, SL. I would take the Bucks over the Pistons. Nice run you're on.

 

Haha I know right?  The Piston's aren't playing today.. so for the Bucks to not score 9.5 more points than them would be MONUMENTAL.

I dunno, Sac---Indiana has a pretty good defense. I'd buy the half-point----

What's up Sac?  I hate to say that I agree with you on Miss St.  I feel like with Vernado down low, UK will struggle getting into the paint and if UK has to rely on outside shooting they are in trouble.  Slight lean to Miss St myself, buddy.  Good luck with your play today and get your bracket ready!!!

Sac Lawson

 Georgia Tech/Duke: I have to admit, two months ago I woulda told you to go with GT hands down.  Duke was a team that really struggled against some of the bigger lineups on their schedule early on.  They were outrebounded, and pushed around in the paint.  G-Tech even did it to em earlier in the season.  Fact is though, that trend has not held true throughout the year.  Over the last month and a half Duke has upped their physicality, and actually exploited teams with size by pressuring their mediocre guards.  Speaking of mediocre guards and pressure... Georgia Tech is actually one of the worst teams in the nation when it comes to turnovers.  You usually wouldn't see that from a team that has been so successful this season, but fact is, they have a hell of a time hanging onto the rock.  Against Duke's pressure defense that'll be a big issue.

Now, that being said, I can't say I'm surprised with Duke's intensity in this specific Tournament.  They allowed Virginia to lead for 25 minutes of their game the other night.  Allowed Miami to lead for 20 minutes, and then after gaining a large lead, allowed Miami to make a comeback and only lose by three.  

If Duke can pressure the ball and force turnovers, I fully expect them to route.  In fact, Duke SHOULD route this Tech team.  Fact is though, the focus hasn't been their for 40 minutes.  I'm not willing to risk any money that we'll see a good Duke performance for 40 minutes, but if we do, this game will not be close.  I would lean just a hair to the UNDER if i had to.  Duke has simply not pushed the tempo much in this tournament, and defense is definitely their focus in big games.  It'll be a game played right in that 140 range, so if it does go under it'll be close.  But that'd be my only remote lean.

Exactly! The Blue-Devils can't put teams away, and they've historically struggled against physical teams. Especially physical guards. They're a solid fade this time of the year, and I've cashed two straight doing that as they're always over valued because of those four letters going across the Jersey.

Good luck today Sacster.

Doc